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AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend. Fair value range: low $153, high $255, with mid-point at $204.
Stock analysis

ABBV fair value $153–$255

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-08Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Kurs
$202.71
▲ +0.96 (+0.47%)
Fair Value
$204
$153–$255
Rating
Halten
confidence 88/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
+0.5%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$173.12
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$358.5B
P/E fwd 12.5
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Strong immunology execution offsetting Humira cliff.
  • GAAP EPS vastly understates $13B+ FCF capacity.
  • Fairly valued at current levels; maintain position.
Fair value
$204
Margin of safety
+0.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$202.71Price
Low $152.59
Mid $203.67
High $254.75

AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend.

  • Intellectual property and robust pipeline
    Intellectual property and robust pipeline in immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
  • Scale and distribution networks globally
    Scale and distribution networks globally.
  • Cycle upside
    Aging population and increasing prevalence of autoimmune diseases drive secular volume growth. Innovation in targeted therapies commands premium pricing.

§2 Bärenszenario

A severe margin contraction driven by pricing reform and aggressive biosimilar uptake stresses FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics.. Debt load from Allergan acquisition amplifies equity risk, constraining dividend growth and leading to a structural multiple de-rating.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Accelerated Humira Erosion

· Medium

Biosimilar competition erodes Humira revenues significantly faster than projected, compressing margins.

FV impact
-15%

Skyrizi/Rinvoq Disappointment

· Low

Key immunology assets fail to reach peak sales targets or face unexpected safety concerns.

FV impact
-20%

Pricing Regulation

· High

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces pricing power across the pharmaceutical portfolio.

FV impact
-10%
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Humira revenue decline exceeding 35% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Skyrizi/Rinvoq sales missing internal valuation cross-checks for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting below 68%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt-to-EBITDA expanding beyond 2.5x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% of FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden

Position2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Umsatz$58.05B$54.32B-6.4%$56.33B+3.7%$61.16B+8.6%+1.8%
Bruttogewinn$40.64B$33.90B$39.43B$42.96B+1.9%
Betriebsergebnis$18.81B$13.54B$11.89B$20.09B+2.2%
Nettogewinn$11.84B$4.86B-59.0%$4.28B-11.9%$4.23B-1.2%-29.1%
EPS (verwässert)$6.63$2.72$2.39$2.36-29.1%
EBITDA$24.17B$17.17B$14.91B$17.63B-10.0%
F&E$6.51B$7.68B$12.79B$9.10B+11.8%
VVG$15.26B$12.87B$14.75B$14.01B-2.8%

Qualitäts-Scores

Piotroski F-Score
5 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
OCF / Nettogewinn
4.5×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
11.7%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

ABBV margins questions

  1. ABBV (ABBV)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.
FAQ

ABBV — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABBV trades close to fair value. The current price is $203 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $204 (range $153–$255), which implies roughly 0.5% upside to the midpoint.
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