Cummins Inc. (CMI)
NYSE: CMI · Real-Time Price · USD
$680
-3.35 (-0.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CMI rated Reduce
CMI is rated Reduce at $709.57 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $537.46, implying -24.26% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 81/100.
Fair value (mid)
$537 / share
$424 – $652
Upside to FV
-24.3%
from $680
Confidence
81/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated adoption of natural gas and hybrid platforms bridges the technological gap safely. Robust aftermarket sales and scale advantages drive margin expansion, achieving $651.97 target.
Biggest risk
Accelerated ICE Obsolescence
Accelerated ICE Obsolescence: Global emission regulations tighten faster than expected, stranding highly profitable legacy diesel assets and crashing near-term FCF.
Recommended action
Reduce
CMI is rated Reduce at $709.57 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $537.46, implying -24.26% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 81/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $97.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 33.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $19.3 | |
| Shares out | 138M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 35.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.4x | |
| Dividend | $8.00 (1.18%) | |
| Volume | 907,299 | |
| Beta | 1.27 | |
| Price target | $654 | -3.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 33.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $19.3
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.4x
- Market cap
- $97.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $28.07B | $34.07B | $34.10B | $33.67B | +4.6% |
| Gross profit | — | $6.72B | $8.25B | $8.44B | $8.52B | +6.1% |
| Operating income | — | $2.58B | $1.28B | $3.37B | $3.87B | +10.6% |
| Net income | — | $2.15B | $735.0M | $3.95B | $2.84B | +7.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.61 | $15.12 | $5.15 | $28.37 | $20.50 | +8.8% |
| EBITDA | — | $3.80B | $3.03B | $6.34B | $5.40B | +9.2% |
| R&D | — | $1.28B | $1.50B | $1.46B | $1.40B | +2.2% |
| SG&A | — | $2.69B | $3.33B | $3.28B | $3.13B | +3.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $424
- Fair value (mid)
- $537
- Fair value (high)
- $652
- Current price
- $680
- Upside to mid
- -24.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $597 | 25% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $404 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $575 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $724 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $484 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $440 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$654
-3.8%
In the news
Latest news · CMI
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $97.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.4x
- P/S
- 2.8x
- P/B
- 7.6x
- PEG
- 1.82
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.8%
- Operating margin
- 11.5%
- ROE
- 22.0%
- ROA
- 7.3%
- ROIC
- 15.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.62
- Current ratio
- 1.71
- Quick ratio
- 0.96
Trading
- Beta
- 1.27
- Volume
- 907,299
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -18.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$651.97
-8.1% from spot
Accelerated adoption of natural gas and hybrid platforms bridges the technological gap safely. Robust aftermarket sales and scale advantages drive margin expansion, achieving $651.97 target.
- Accelera reaches profitability ahead of schedule
- Legacy ICE aftermarket margins expand
- WACC compresses below 8.5%
Base60%
Price target
$537.46
-24.3% from spot
Maintains steady mid-term EPS visibility while structurally adjusting for the capital-intensive Accelera transition via a moderate terminal PE. Values company at $537.46.
- 5.84% fundamental base growth
- Terminal PE of 20x
- Operating margins stabilize at 11.5%
Bear20%
Price target
$423.89
-40.3% from spot
A faster-than-expected global regulatory mandate for fully electric vehicles renders legacy engine IP obsolete, stranding assets and driving fair value down to $423.89.
- Rapid ICE volume collapse
- Severe ROIC compression from transition capex
- Terminal growth rate drops below GDP
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $537.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $597 | -12.1% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $404 | -40.6% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $575 | -15.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $724 | +6.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 10% | $484 | -28.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $440 | -35.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $537 | -24.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($537.47). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $645 | $716 | $805 | $919 | $941 |
| 8.0% | $537 | $586 | $645 | $716 | $805 |
| 9.0% | $461 | $496 | $537 | $586 | $645 |
| 10.0% | $403 | $430 | $461 | $496 | $537 |
| 11.0% | $359 | $380 | $403 | $430 | $461 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability6.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 81/100
Target weight
Avoid or Underweight. The current pricing implies an unrealistic 13.07% growth rate, offering a highly unfavorable risk/reward skew.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$680
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Reduce exposure into current market strength. internal valuation cross-checks ($721.44) and trailing indicators are masking the impending capital intensity of the zero-emission transition.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE22
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC15.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CMI indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
280
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 280 of 280 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CMI
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CMI report
What is the current CMI stock rating?
Cummins Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CMI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CMI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CMI?
The latest report frames CMI around $424 to $652. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CMI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceCMI · Fair value $537-24.3% · Confidence 81/100