Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
NASDAQ: COST · Real-Time Price · USD
$1009
-3.24 (-0.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: COST rated Sell
Sell. Extreme valuation divergence completely overrides exceptional business quality.
Fair value (mid)
$534 / share
$385 – $683
Upside to FV
-47.3%
from $1009
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Execution remains flawless and the market tolerates an extended high multiple. However, the stock remains structurally overvalued relative to intrinsic cash flows.
Biggest risk
Multiple Normalization
Multiple Normalization: Forward P/E compresses from >45x to the historical 25x cap, causing massive equity destruction despite stable operations.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. Costco is a premier business priced at an irrational valuation. Re-evaluate only after a severe multiple normalization event.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $448.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 286.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 8.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $19.2 | |
| Shares out | 443.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 52.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 45.0x | |
| Dividend | $5.88 (0.58%) | |
| Volume | 1,804,960 | |
| Beta | 0.91 | |
| Price target | $1078 | +6.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Costco Wholesale CorporationCOST
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 286.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 8.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $19.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 52.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 45.0x
- Market cap
- $448.8B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-08-31 | 2023-08-31 | 2024-08-31 | 2025-08-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $226.95B | $242.29B | $254.45B | $275.24B | +6.6% |
| Gross profit | $27.57B | $29.70B | $32.10B | $35.35B | +8.6% |
| Operating income | $7.79B | $8.11B | $9.29B | $10.38B | +10.0% |
| Net income | $5.84B | $6.29B | $7.37B | $8.10B | +11.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.14 | $14.16 | $16.56 | $18.21 | +11.5% |
| EBITDA | $9.90B | $10.72B | $12.15B | $13.40B | +10.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $19.78B | $21.59B | $22.81B | $24.97B | +8.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $385
- Fair value (mid)
- $534
- Fair value (high)
- $683
- Current price
- $1009
- Upside to mid
- -47.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $532 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $616 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $523 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $455 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $435 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $333 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$1078
+6.9%
In the news
Latest news · COST
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $448.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 52.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 45.0x
- P/S
- 1.6x
- P/B
- 13.9x
- PEG
- 5.11
- EV / EBITDA
- 32.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 12.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.8%
- ROE
- 29.7%
- ROA
- 8.7%
- ROIC
- 37.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.26
- Current ratio
- 1.06
- Quick ratio
- 0.54
Trading
- Beta
- 0.91
- Volume
- 1,804,960
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -48.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$683.21
-32.5% from spot
Execution remains flawless and the market tolerates an extended high multiple. However, the stock remains structurally overvalued relative to intrinsic cash flows.
- Growth significantly exceeds 8%
- Terminal multiple sustains above 30x
- Digital share expands margins
Base60%
Price target
$533.50
-47.3% from spot
Revenue growth normalizes to 3-5% long-term, and the multiple reverts to an appropriate 25x mature compounder ceiling, exposing the massive valuation gap.
- Growth fades from 8.6% to 3%
- Terminal multiple caps at 25x
- Operating margins steady at 3.7%
Bear20%
Price target
$385.07
-61.9% from spot
Severe multiple compression materializes alongside sluggish consumer discretionary spending, pushing the valuation toward its $385 downside bound.
- Consumer weakness impacts renewals
- Multiple compresses below 20x
- Persistent margin erosion
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $534.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $532 | -47.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $616 | -39.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $523 | -48.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $455 | -54.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $435 | -56.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $333 | -67.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $534 | -47.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $663 | $757 | $881 | $930 | $930 |
| 7.0% | $532 | $590 | $663 | $757 | $881 |
| 8.0% | $444 | $484 | $532 | $590 | $663 |
| 9.0% | $381 | $410 | $444 | $484 | $532 |
| 10.0% | $333 | $355 | $381 | $410 | $444 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability7.0
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
7.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Avoid or trim aggressively. The negative expected return profile demands zero structural weighting for value-oriented mandates.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$1009
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate current holdings. The extreme multiple leaves absolutely no margin of safety for fundamental missteps.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E45
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE29.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC37.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All COST indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
287
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 287 of 287 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on COST
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this COST report
What is the current COST stock rating?
Costco Wholesale Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full COST analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/COST/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for COST?
The latest report frames COST around $385 to $683. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the COST page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellCOST · Fair value $534-47.3% · Confidence 88/100