Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
SCHW trades against a final fair-value range of $60.25-$102.26, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $60.3, high $102, with mid-point at $81.0.
Stock analysis

SCHW fair value $60–$102

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-09Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
View archive
Kurs
$88.61
▼ -7.66 (-8.64%)
Fair Value
$81
$60–$102
Rating
Halten
confidence 88/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
-8.6%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$68.81
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$155.3B
P/E fwd 12.7
Englische QuelleDE
Englische Quelle wird angezeigt, während wir übersetzen
Dieser Bericht wurde noch nicht übersetzt. Aktualisieren Sie in ein paar Minuten, sobald die Übersetzungswarteschlange aufgeholt hat.

§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $81 with high case $102.
  • Implied downside of 8.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$81
Margin of safety
-9.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$88.61Price
Low $60.25
Mid $80.95
High $102.26

SCHW trades against a final fair-value range of $60.25-$102.26, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Massive client asset scale enabling
    Massive client asset scale enabling structural cost advantages.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated advisory and brokerage clients.
  • Cycle upside
    Rate stabilization and equity market appreciation drive robust net new asset growth and end the cash sorting headwind.

§2 Bärenszenario

A protracted higher-for-longer rate environment coupled with an equity market drawdown would simultaneously compress net interest margins via cash sorting and reduce asset management fees, severely impacting free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. generation.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Persistent Cash Sorting

· Medium

Higher-for-longer rates trigger an accelerated wave of deposit sorting, compressing NIM and forcing reliance on high-cost wholesale funding.

FV impact
-25%

Regulatory Capital Squeeze

· Low

Stricter capital requirements significantly impair ROE, limiting buybacks, dividends, and overall organic compounding capacity.

FV impact
-15%

Advisory Fee Compression

· Medium

Intense competitive pressure from low-cost robo-advisors drives structural fee compression in the core wealth management segment.

FV impact
-20%
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Accelerated decline in low-cost sweep deposit balances.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Contraction in Net Interest Margin (NIM) absent rate cuts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net new asset (NNA) growth falling below 5% annualized.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased reliance on high-cost wholesale borrowing.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Announcements of stricter regulatory capital minimums.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Umsatz$18.52B$20.76B$18.84B$19.61B$23.92B+6.6%
Bruttogewinn
Betriebsergebnis
Nettogewinn$5.86B$7.18B$5.07B$5.94B$8.85B+10.9%
EPS (verwässert)$3.50$2.54$2.99$4.65+7.4%
EBITDA
F&E
VVG$5.94B$6.36B$6.71B$6.44B$6.91B+3.9%

Qualitäts-Scores

OCF / Nettogewinn
1.05×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Cashflow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitalallokation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Vollständiger Bericht für jeden abgedeckten Ticker
24 Monate Rating-Archiv
Watchlist-Briefings + Rating-Änderungs-Warnungen
PDF + DOCX Export in jeder Sprache
Kostenlose Testversion starten
Jederzeit kündbar.
SCENARIOS FAQ

SCHW scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for SCHW (SCHW) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
FAQ

SCHW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SCHW screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $88.6 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $81.0 (range $60.3–$102), which implies roughly 8.6% downside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of SCHW also follow

Same archetype: financial