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SMCI trades against a final fair-value range of $48.45-$105.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $48.5, high $105, with mid-point at $71.4.
Stock analysis

SMCI fair value $48–$105

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-10Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Kurs
$35.37
▲ +36.02 (+101.84%)
Fair Value
$71
$48–$105
Rating
Starker Kauf
confidence 75/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
+101.8%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$60.68
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$21.2B
P/E fwd 11.0
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $71 with high case $105.
  • Implied upside of 101.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 75/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$71
Margin of safety
+50.5%
Confidence
75/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$35.37Price
Low $48.45
Mid $71.39
High $105.45

SMCI trades against a final fair-value range of $48.45-$105.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • First-to-market advantage in specialized liquid
    First-to-market advantage in specialized liquid cooling for AI servers
  • Tight engineering integration with Nvidia
    Tight engineering integration with Nvidia for accelerated time-to-market
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks ($36.75) views SMCI strictly as a peak-cycle value trap with immediate mean-reverting multiples.

§2 Bärenszenario

A sudden cyclical downturn in AI infrastructure build-outs alongside a working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). trap could freeze liquidity. SMCI's cash conversion is exceptionally poor; an inventory glut and forced price cuts would rapidly deplete its cash buffer, pushing free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. deeply negative and forcing dilutive capital raises.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

AI Capex Normalization

· Medium

Hyperscaler demand plateaus before broad enterprise demand matures, stranding SMCI with excess manufacturing capacity.

FV impact
-32% to $48.45 Floor
Trigger
12-24 months

Nvidia GPU Allocation Squeeze

· Low

Nvidia prioritizes other OEMs or direct hyperscaler relationships, choking SMCI's core revenue growth engine.

FV impact
-25% to Fair Value
Trigger
6-12 months

Structurally Crushed Margins

· High

Aggressive pricing wars in commodity server assembly compress SMCI operating margins below 4%, destroying intrinsic owner earnings.

FV impact
-40% to Fair Value
Trigger
12-18 months
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Operating margins slipping below 5.0% for two consecutive quartersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Days in inventory increasing significantly against historical averagesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major cloud provider switching to white-box or competitor infrastructureMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising cost of debt on short-term working capital facilitiesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward EPS internal valuation cross-checks downgrades exceeding 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Umsatz$5.20B$7.12B$14.99B$21.97B+61.7%
Bruttogewinn$800.0M$1.28B$2.06B$2.43B+44.8%
Betriebsergebnis$335.2M$761.1M$1.21B$1.25B+55.2%
Nettogewinn$285.2M$640.0M$1.15B$1.05B+54.4%
EPS (verwässert)$0.53$1.14$2.01$1.68+46.7%
EBITDA$375.7M$799.7M$1.27B$1.33B+52.4%
F&E$272.3M$307.3M$463.5M$636.6M+32.7%
VVG$192.6M$214.6M$387.1M$540.4M+41.1%

Qualitäts-Scores

Piotroski F-Score
5 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
Altman Z-Score
4.71
Insolvenzrisiko (>3 sicher)
Beneish M-Score
-2.44
Risiko von Ergebnismanipulation
OCF / Nettogewinn
1.58×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
9.1%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Cashflow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitalallokation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

SMCI balance sheet questions

  1. SMCI (SMCI)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

SMCI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SMCI looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $35.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $71.4 (range $48.5–$105), which implies roughly 101.8% upside to the midpoint.

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