TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG)
NYSE: TDG · Real-Time Price · USD
$1215
-26.95 (-2.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TDG rated Hold
TDG is rated Hold at $1,191.19 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $1,238.78, implying +4.00% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 86/100.
Fair value (mid)
$1239 / share
$938 – $1542
Upside to FV
+4.0%
from $1215
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Commercial aerospace aftermarket continues a prolonged upcycle. TDG maintains supreme pricing power without regulatory intervention and successfully integrates accretive M&A, sustaining operating margins well above historical norms.
Biggest risk
Regulatory Pricing Crackdown
Regulatory Pricing Crackdown: DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.
Recommended action
Hold
TDG is rated Hold at $1,191.19 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $1,238.78, implying +4.00% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 86/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $66.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 9.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $32.0 | |
| Shares out | 55.9M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 37.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 25.5x | |
| Dividend | $90.0 (7.41%) | |
| Volume | 284,259 | |
| Beta | 0.88 | |
| Price target | $1527 | +25.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 9.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $32.0
- P/E (trailing)
- 37.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.5x
- Market cap
- $66.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.43B | $6.59B | $7.94B | $8.83B | +17.6% |
| Gross profit | $3.10B | $3.84B | $4.67B | $5.31B | +19.7% |
| Operating income | $2.22B | $2.92B | $3.58B | $4.19B | +23.7% |
| Net income | $866.0M | $1.30B | $1.71B | $2.07B | +33.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.40 | $22.03 | $25.62 | $32.08 | +33.8% |
| EBITDA | $2.46B | $3.15B | $3.81B | $4.57B | +23.0% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $748.0M | $780.0M | $934.0M | $921.0M | +7.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $938
- Fair value (mid)
- $1239
- Fair value (high)
- $1542
- Current price
- $1215
- Upside to mid
- +4.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $1616 | 30% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $941 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $1329 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $943 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $1057 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $303 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$1527
+25.6%
In the news
Latest news · TDG
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $66.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 37.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.5x
- P/S
- 7.2x
- PEG
- 2.14
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.7%
- Operating margin
- 46.9%
- ROA
- 11.8%
- ROIC
- 18.9%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 3.52
- Quick ratio
- 2.43
Trading
- Beta
- 0.88
- Volume
- 284,259
- Dividend yield
- 7.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -11.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$1,542.20
+29.5% from spot
Commercial aerospace aftermarket continues a prolonged upcycle. TDG maintains supreme pricing power without regulatory intervention and successfully integrates accretive M&A, sustaining operating margins well above historical norms.
- Operating margins permanently sustained above 46%
- Accretive M&A pace accelerates significantly
- Terminal multiple expands toward premium historical bounds
Base60%
Price target
$1,238.78
+4.0% from spot
TDG's quasi-monopolistic portfolio of sole-source components drives sustained FCF generation, enabling reliable M&A execution and special dividends at current structural margin levels.
- Operating margins normalize at a baseline 46%
- Revenue growth fades to a durable 4.5% in Year 5
- Terminal multiple holds at a disciplined 22x
Bear20%
Price target
$938.35
-21.2% from spot
Regulatory pushback on defense or commercial pricing compresses margins. Concurrently, the massive debt burden amplifies equity downside as a broader aviation cyclical downturn impairs baseline cash flows.
- Severe operating margin compression due to audits
- Prolonged commercial aviation downcycle
- Higher cost of equity due to amplified debt risks
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $1239.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 30% | $1616 | +33.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $941 | -22.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $1329 | +9.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $943 | -22.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $1057 | -13.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $303 | -75.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $1239 | +4.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $1235 | $1464 | $1647 | $1647 | $1647 |
| 6.2% | $941 | $1068 | $1235 | $1464 | $1647 |
| 7.2% | $760 | $841 | $941 | $1068 | $1235 |
| 8.2% | $638 | $693 | $760 | $841 | $941 |
| 9.2% | $549 | $590 | $638 | $693 | $760 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.5
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.5
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.8/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 86/100
Target weight
Core holding sized appropriately for a wide-moat compounder, but total allocation is firmly capped due to the outsized financial leverage risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$1215
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure significantly if the valuation approaches the $1,542 bull-case target or if persistent structural margin degradation violates thesis triggers.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E25.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC18.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TDG indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 278 of 278 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TDG
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TDG report
What is the current TDG stock rating?
TransDigm Group Incorporated is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TDG analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TDG/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TDG?
The latest report frames TDG around $938 to $1542. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TDG page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldTDG · Fair value $1239+4.0% · Confidence 86/100