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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TSM — frequently asked questions
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-25, TSM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 451 USD versus our fair value of 121 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 238 USD. That implies roughly 73.2% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25, gives TSM a fair value of 121 USD and a potential value of 238 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TSM now?
Our latest published rating for TSM, analyzed 2026-09-25, is Sell. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 451 USD versus fair value of 121 USD; potential value is 238 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TSM?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-25 documents Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TSM's rating?
Our latest published rating for TSM, analyzed 2026-09-25, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9.5/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 121 USD, the potential value of 238 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (451 USD).
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§1 ZusammenfassungEN
30-Sekunden-AntwortSell
Preis im Verhältnis zum Wert
Kurs
$451.15
Fairer Wert
$121.15
Potenzialwert
$237.79
Stand
2026-09-24
Warum es funktionieren kann
TSMC's effective monopoly in sub-5nm fabrication and CoWoS advanced packaging enables sustained wafer price premiums and full fab utilization as artificial intelligence accelerator demand from customers like AMD and Broadcom accelerates, driving operational earnings toward Potential value of 237.79 USD.
Was unsere Einschätzung ändern würde
Annual revenue growth decelerates below 20% in FY2026 or consolidated operating margin falls below 42% over FY2026-FY2028.
We rate Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company as a Sell because the report-date price of 451.15 USD on 2026-09-24 stands 272% above our Fair value of 121.15 USD. While customer order pauses or overseas fab cost overruns could depress profitability, secular demand for leading-edge artificial intelligence chips supports Potential value of 237.79 USD.1,3
We assign a Sell rating to TSMC. For an ordinary investor, this means avoiding new share purchases and trimming existing holdings to protect capital, as the stock is priced for perfection.
On the report date of 2026-09-24, shares traded at 451.15 USD. This price stands 272% above our Fair value of 121.15 USD and 90% above our of 237.79 USD. Investors today are paying an excessive premium over normalized .
The primary risk that would alter our view is a pause in artificial intelligence spending paired with overseas factory cost overruns. If annual revenue growth falls below 20% or consolidated operating margins drop below 42%, expensive plant capacity would sit idle, depressing cash flow and forcing a sharp market repricing.3
The strongest catalyst for business outperformance is TSMC's manufacturing monopoly on sub-5nm chips and advanced CoWoS packaging. High demand from chipmakers like AMD and Broadcom could keep factories running at full capacity, enabling wafer price premiums that lift earnings and support our Potential value of 237.79 USD.1
Advanced Node and Packaging Monopoly
TSMC commands unmatched technological leadership in sub-5nm fabrication and CoWoS packaging, making it indispensable for AI accelerators from customers like AMD and Broadcom.1
A pure-play foundry model generates a 27.59% return on invested capital and 50.82% operating margin, outperforming the 35.30% industry average and easily clearing the 10.62% cost of capital.2,3
Hausempfehlung
We rate Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company a Sell because the report-date price of 451.15 USD sits 272% above our Fair value of 121.15 USD, creating severe valuation risk despite strong operational fundamentals.3
Unternehmensüberblick
the key growth driver for its business. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited provides customers, including both fabless IC design companies and system
continuously develop relevant technologies, products and services to meet these customer needs and changes in the AI
§2 BärenszenarioEN
Stress testing demonstrates substantial downside vulnerability if hyperscale AI infrastructure spending decelerates or geopolitical risk escalates. With FY2025 capex reaching 1,285.59B TWD (33.67% of revenue), fab underutilization combined with higher cost structures in Arizona and European fabs would compress operating margins toward the historical trough of 45.68% seen in FY2024. Furthermore, a 200 bps elevation in the cost of equity to 12.62% compounded by multiple contraction to historical trough levels of 17.6x drives intrinsic value down toward 12.86 USD.
Fabless clients scale back wafer commitments during an AI infrastructure digestion phase.
Overseas facility operating and construction overhead permanently dilutes corporate margins.3
Geopolitical frictions elevate the cost of capital and compress market valuation multiples.2
Hyperscale customers enter an infrastructure digestion phase, trimming wafer orders while overseas fab ramp costs depress consolidated margins. Geopolitical frictions elevate discount rates and force multiple contraction toward historical troughs. Confirmation occurs through consecutive quarters of decelerating top-line growth and margin compression.
Wie diese These scheitern kann
Overseas fab cost escalation and underutilization drag consolidated operating margin down by 6 percentage points across the forecast horizon.
Reported operating margin dipped to 45.68% in FY2024 and 45.86% in FY2023. As FY2025 capex of 1,285.59B TWD (33.67% of revenue) ramps across higher-cost overseas fabs in the US and Europe, elevated depreciation and operational cost burdens would push consolidated operating margins below 45%.3
FV impact
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
Die fünf Entwicklungen, die unsere Anlagethese schwächen würden.
A deceleration below this rate indicates that cloud customers are pausing infrastructure deployments, directly idling expensive leading-edge extreme ultraviolet scanner capacity and causing severe fixed-cost deleverage across sub-5nm fabrication lines.
TSMC operates as the primary manufacturing foundation for global leading-edge computing, holding an effective monopoly on sub-5nm fabrication and advanced CoWoS packaging. This structural position produces sustained value-based pricing power.
The pure-play foundry model eliminates conflicts of interest with customers, cementing collaborative customer lock-in that competitors cannot replicate.
Ökonomischer Gewinn
TSMC generates an extraordinary return on invested capital of 27.59%, clearing its moderate cost of equity of 10.6179% and WACC of 10.5348% by approximately 1,700 basis points. In FY2025, operating profit reached 1,955.70B TWD on 3,848.51B TWD in revenue (50.82% margin), outperforming the semiconductor industry average operating margin of 35.30%.2,3
9.5/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Scale Cost Advantage — Immense gigafab cluster volume enables amortizing multi-billion dollar extreme ultraviolet scanner investments across hundreds of millions of units, achieving lower per-die manufacturing costs than any competitor.Wide
02Intangible Assets — Proprietary process recipes across N3 and N2 alongside exclusive CoWoS advanced packaging patents create an insurmountable technology barrier for hyperscale AI processors.Wide
03High Customer Switching Costs — Fabless leaders co-design physical silicon architectures with TSMC's proprietary electronic design automation kits years prior to tape-out, making switching foundries prohibitively costly and risky.
Bekannte Bedrohungen für den Wettbewerbsvorteil
Bedrohung
Schweregrad
Zeitrahmen
Minderung
Concentration of advanced node wafer fabrication and packaging in western Taiwan exposes global supply chains to regional disruptions.
high
Ongoing multi-year risk
Active construction and ramp of overseas gigafabs in Arizona, Japan, and Germany to diversify geographic production footprint.3
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($121.15). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Validates cyclical digestion risks and fab cost inflation, compounding downside risk toward Fair value $121.15.
Ergebnisqualität
Earnings quality is exceptional, driven by substantial cash generation where operational cash flow significantly exceeds reported net profit. Working capital discipline remains sound with conservative revenue recognition and negligible equity-based compensation overhead.3
Capital allocation prioritizes leading-edge gigafab expansion. In FY2025, operating cash flow of 2,383.18B TWD funded 1,285.59B TWD in capex and 471.61B TWD in dividends. The balance sheet remains in a fortress net cash position with 2,767.86B TWD in cash against 1,064.58B TWD in total debt.
ROIC of 27.59% comfortably exceeds the 10.5348% computed WACC and 10.6179% moderate cost of equity by roughly 1,700 basis points, confirming sustained economic value creation.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) trades at 21.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 28.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 5.2x compares with a peer median of 48.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Monolithic Power Systems Inc., Broadcom Inc., Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., as of 2026-09-25.
§10 Branche & ZyklusEN
Zyklusphase
Expansion
TSMC's FY2025 capex totaled 1,285.59B TWD, representing 33.67% of revenue and 1.85x annual depreciation of 695.22B TWD, substantially above the industry average capex-to-revenue ratio of 4.40% and capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.27x.3
Bullenzyklus
Hyperscale AI accelerator demand and premium mobile upgrades create an unprecedented multi-year expansion for advanced nodes, driving consensus forecasts of 42.88% revenue growth in FY2026.
Bärenzyklus
Hyperscale cloud capex digestion and cyclical semiconductor maturation lead to wafer order trimming, causing capacity underutilization and margin compression toward historical cyclical levels.
Säkulare Trends
Trend
Auswirkung
Hinweis
Surging Generative AI Accelerator Demand
positive
Hyperscale cloud providers are aggressively deploying specialized silicon, driving triple-digit growth at customers like AMD (+106%) and AVGO (+66%) requiring leading-edge nodes.
Geographic Supply Chain Decoupling
negative
Western governments mandate domestic semiconductor fabrication, forcing capital reallocation toward higher-cost geographic jurisdictions.
Positionierung
TSMC commands dominant industry positioning as the sole volume manufacturer capable of yielding sub-3nm architectures and CoWoS packaging at scale.
§11 PositionsmanagementEN
Positionsgröße
0%
Shares trade at 451.15 USD as of 2026-09-24, representing an excessive 272% premium to house Fair value of 121.15 USD. No position is warranted at these elevated multiples.3
Risiko
Purchasing shares at a 272% premium to Fair value exposes investors to severe drawdown risk upon any cyclical demand pause or geopolitical repricing.
Einstiegstranchen
Niveau
Aktion
Warum
121.15 USD (Fair value)
Initiate fundamental underwriting review
Aligns market price with normalized owner earnings cash generation.
Trading at a 272% premium to Fair value of 121.15 USD, shares offer zero margin of safety against potential cyclical demand corrections or cost dilution.3
Growth Investor
Avoid
Even assuming aggressive forward growth of 42.88% in FY2026, the current stock price already discounts years of flawless execution, leaving downside vulnerability if customer capex pauses.1
Income / Quality Investor
Avoid
While TSMC maintains a fortress balance sheet with 2,767.86B TWD in cash and low debt of 1,064.58B TWD, capital allocation prioritizes gigafab reinvestment (1,285.59B TWD capex in FY2025) over cash distributions, making the current valuation unappealing for yield.3
§14 Endgültige EmpfehlungEN
Aktion
Verkaufen
We recommend a Sell rating on TSMC because the report-date price of 451.15 USD on 2026-09-24 trades at a 272% premium to our Fair value of 121.15 USD, presenting an unacceptable valuation risk despite exceptional manufacturing quality.3
Investors should avoid new capital commitments and systematically trim existing holdings, as any pause in AI accelerator spending or overseas cost overruns would trigger severe multiple contraction.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Hyperscale AI infrastructure capex digestion causes fabless customers to scale back wafer allocations, reducing revenue growth by 10 percentage points per annum.
Consensus projects FY2026 revenue of 5,442.28B TWD (+42.88%). A 10 percentage point deceleration in demand growth driven by cloud customer digestion would trigger revenue growth falling below 32.88%, impairing operating leverage across advanced nodes.
FV impact
0%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Taiwan Strait geopolitical tensions and cyclical semiconductor maturation force a 20% contraction in the terminal valuation multiple.
The valuation framework anchors to a terminal exit multiple of 22.0x based on the forward P/E of 21.41x as of 2026-09-25. Escalated cross-strait risk and foundry cyclicality would compress the exit multiple by 20% to 17.6x, aligning with historical cyclical trough valuations.3
FV impact
-0.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 12 months
Elevated geopolitical risk premia and persistent global interest rates drive a 200 basis point increase in the discount rate.
Computed moderate cost of equity is 10.6179% based on a 5.11% risk-free rate and 4.14% equity risk premium as of 2026-09-25. A 200 bps geopolitical risk spread elevation pushes Ke above 12.62%, generating an immediate fair value reduction.2
FV impact
-0.7%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
A drop below this boundary demonstrates that elevated overseas fab construction, utility, and labor costs cannot be recouped through wafer surcharges, permanently diluting return on invested capital across geographic gigafab expansions.
Capital expenditure outrunning depreciation at this pace signals chronic structural cost overruns in overseas fab execution, consuming operating cash flows and severely delaying the expected release of free cash flow.
Sustained gross margin degradation proves that lower initial manufacturing yields and unabsorbed fixed overhead at foreign gigafabs are actively diluting the corporate manufacturing cost advantage relative to historical domestic operations.
Aktuell:59.89% in FY2025
Alarm, wennFalling below 53% for two consecutive quarters
An elevation of the discount rate reflects widening geopolitical risk spreads around the Taiwan Strait, increasing the required return demanded by global investors and directly compressing equity valuations across all manufacturing nodes.
Aktuell:10.62% as of 2026-09-25
Alarm, wennRising above 12.62% over next 12 months
Wide
Overseas fab construction and operating cost inflation diluting corporate gross and operating margins.
medium
Next 12 to 24 months
Securing government CHIPS subsidies alongside contractual pricing surcharges for overseas wafer delivery.3
42%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
