Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
NYSE: TSM · Real-Time Price · USD
$412
-2.48 (-0.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TSM rated Strong Buy
Strong Buy given dominant market positioning and 34.57% discount to $554 fair value.
Fair value (mid)
$554 / share
$376 – $734
Upside to FV
+34.6%
from $412
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
The massive $554 mid-point relies heavily on near-term AI forward earnings visibility.
Biggest risk
China Invasion/Blockade of Taiwan
Priced at a 20% premium to street internal valuation cross-checks, reflecting conviction in prolonged pricing power.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy. TSM is the definitive infrastructure play for the AI generation, with an unmatched moat justifying its CapEx requirements and a compelling 35% upside to our $554 fair value.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $2.14T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 128.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 59.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.30 | |
| Shares out | 25.9B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 31.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.3x | |
| Dividend | $2.64 (0.64%) | |
| Volume | 18,575,182 | |
| Beta | 1.26 | |
| Price target | $417 | +1.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedTSM
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 128.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 59.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.30
- P/E (trailing)
- 31.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.3x
- Market cap
- $2.14T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $2,263.89B | $2,161.74B | $2,894.31B | $3,809.05B | +18.9% |
| Gross profit | $1,348.35B | $1,175.11B | $1,624.35B | $2,281.29B | +19.2% |
| Operating income | $1,121.23B | $921.43B | $1,322.00B | $1,936.10B | +20.0% |
| Net income | $992.92B | $851.74B | $1,158.38B | $1,697.60B | +19.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $196.00 | $161.70 | $226.25 | $331.25 | +19.1% |
| EBITDA | $1,593.08B | $1,523.51B | $2,079.13B | $2,742.12B | +19.8% |
| R&D | $163.26B | $182.37B | $204.18B | $246.43B | +14.7% |
| SG&A | $63.45B | $71.46B | $96.89B | $99.22B | +16.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $376
- Fair value (mid)
- $554
- Fair value (high)
- $734
- Current price
- $412
- Upside to mid
- +34.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $665 | 45% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $573 | 35% |
| FCFF DCF | $272 | 10% |
| Discounted earnings | $247 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $300 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$417
+1.2%
In the news
Latest news · TSM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.14T
- P/E (trailing)
- 31.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.3x
- P/S
- 14.8x
- P/B
- 10.2x
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 61.9%
- Operating margin
- 53.3%
- ROE
- 36.2%
- ROA
- 17.3%
- ROIC
- 52.2%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.17
- Current ratio
- 2.49
- Quick ratio
- 2.19
Trading
- Beta
- 1.26
- Volume
- 18,575,182
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +45.5% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$734.11
+78.3% from spot
Prolonged AI super-cycle sustains hyper-growth. TSM completely dominates advanced nodes, expanding margins as competitors fail to execute, supporting a premium terminal multiple.
- Terminal growth rate normalizes at 4%.
- AI infrastructure spending continues unabated for 5+ years.
- Operating margins expand past 50% due to N3/N2 pricing premiums.
Base55%
Price target
$554.00
+34.6% from spot
TSM navigates the AI boom successfully with robust visibility, balancing heavy CapEx constraints. Multi-stage moat fade values the transition from hyper-growth to steady infrastructure leadership.
- Revenue grows 35% Year 1, fading to 10% by Year 5.
- Operating margins normalize at 48%.
- Terminal growth rate held at 3%.
Bear20%
Price target
$376.46
-8.6% from spot
Overcapacity following the current massive CapEx cycle crashes utilization. AI demand decelerates, and geopolitical tensions place a structural discount on the stock's valuation.
- Revenue growth decelerates rapidly after Year 2.
- Operating margins compress to 35%.
- Terminal multiple compresses due to geopolitical overhang.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $554.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $665 | +61.4% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $573 | +39.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $272 | -34.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $247 | -39.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $300 | -27.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $554 | +34.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.9% | $623 | $665 | $713 | $768 | $833 |
| 10.9% | $553 | $586 | $623 | $665 | $713 |
| 11.9% | $497 | $524 | $553 | $586 | $623 |
| 12.9% | $452 | $473 | $497 | $524 | $553 |
| 13.9% | $414 | $432 | $452 | $473 | $497 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management8.2
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment8.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
8.2/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 8.2 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Maximum standard position due to wide moat, offset slightly by high geopolitical tail-risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$412
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim position if trailing P/E exceeds 35x or if geopolitical risk signals flash red.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE36.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC52.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TSM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
282
Groups with data
11
Currency
TWD
Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TSM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TSM report
What is the current TSM stock rating?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TSM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TSM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TSM?
The latest report frames TSM around $376 to $734. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TSM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyTSM · Fair value $554+34.6% · Confidence 88/100