Workday, Inc. (WDAY)
NASDAQ: WDAY · Real-Time Price · USD
$128
-3.05 (-2.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: WDAY rated Sell
WDAY is rated Sell at $127.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $95.27, implying -25.47% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$95.3 / share
$66.0 – $125
Upside to FV
-25.5%
from $128
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
internal valuation cross-checks ($179) is recklessly anchored to an unsustainable 19% implied growth rate.
Biggest risk
HCM Market Saturation
HCM Market Saturation: Core HCM market saturates fully, permanently capping organic top-line growth at low single digits.
Recommended action
Sell
WDAY is rated Sell at $127.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $95.27, implying -25.47% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $31.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 9.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 693M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.59 | |
| Shares out | 249.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 49.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 10.3x | |
| Volume | 4,252,722 | |
| Beta | 1.03 | |
| Price target | $203 | +58.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Workday, Inc.WDAY
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 9.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 693M
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.59
- P/E (trailing)
- 49.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.3x
- Market cap
- $31.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.14B | $6.22B | $7.26B | $8.45B | $9.55B | +16.8% |
| Gross profit | $3.71B | $4.51B | $5.49B | $6.38B | $7.23B | +18.1% |
| Operating income | $-116.0M | $-182.0M | $183.0M | $499.0M | $1.02B | — |
| Net income | $29.0M | $-367.0M | $1.38B | $526.0M | $693.0M | +121.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.12 | $-1.44 | $5.21 | $1.95 | $2.59 | +115.5% |
| EBITDA | $377.0M | $206.0M | $752.0M | $1.08B | $1.47B | +40.5% |
| R&D | $1.88B | $2.25B | $2.46B | $2.63B | $2.68B | +9.3% |
| SG&A | $1.95B | $2.44B | $2.84B | $3.25B | $3.53B | +16.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $66.0
- Fair value (mid)
- $95.3
- Fair value (high)
- $125
- Current price
- $128
- Upside to mid
- -25.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $55.78 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $145 | 25% |
| FCFF DCF | $116 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $52.03 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $108 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$203
+58.4%
In the news
Latest news · WDAY
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $31.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 49.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.3x
- P/S
- 3.3x
- P/B
- 4.2x
- PEG
- 0.55
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.1x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.7%
- Operating margin
- 10.7%
- ROE
- 8.2%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- ROIC
- 11.7%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.49
- Current ratio
- 1.32
- Quick ratio
- 1.22
Trading
- Beta
- 1.03
- Volume
- 4,252,722
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -25.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$124.70
-2.4% from spot
Workday successfully penetrates the massive financials market, sustaining double-digit growth while structurally reducing SBC. This execution drives robust GAAP margin expansion, allowing the stock to retain its premium multiple as it transitions into a mature compounder.
- Revenue growth stabilizes indefinitely above 12%.
- Stock-based compensation normalizes significantly toward industry averages.
- Financials cross-sell accelerates against legacy incumbents.
Base60%
Price target
$95.27
-25.5% from spot
Top-line growth naturally decelerates as the core HCM market matures. The company generates massive operational cash flow, but true shareholder returns are structurally constrained by the ongoing need to issue and subsequently buy back stock to compensate engineering talent.
- Revenue growth decelerates smoothly to 8% by year five.
- Operating margins stabilize at a normalized 25%.
- SBC remains a stubborn, structural cost of doing business.
Bear20%
Price target
$65.95
-48.4% from spot
Intense competitive pressures and saturated core markets drive a rapid deceleration in growth. The market violently reprices the stock to reflect its GAAP unprofitability and heavily diluted mature growth profile, erasing years of premium valuation.
- Revenue growth compresses rapidly to mid-single digits.
- Enterprise IT budgets contract severely under macro stress.
- Valuation multiples ruthlessly re-rate to mature software averages.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $95.3.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $55.8 | -56.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $145 | +13.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 25% | $116 | -9.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 10% | $52.0 | -59.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $108 | -15.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $95.3 | -25.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $110 | $120 | $132 | $147 | $165 |
| 9.0% | $94.7 | $102 | $110 | $120 | $132 |
| 10.0% | $82.9 | $88.4 | $94.7 | $102 | $110 |
| 11.0% | $73.7 | $78.0 | $82.9 | $88.4 | $94.7 |
| 12.0% | $66.4 | $69.9 | $73.7 | $78.0 | $82.9 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.7
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency3.5
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 3.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Use normal position sizing discipline for the rating and risk profile.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$128
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Reassess or exit if the core thesis breaks.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E10.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE8.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC11.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All WDAY indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
258
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 258 of 258 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on WDAY
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this WDAY report
What is the current WDAY stock rating?
Workday, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full WDAY analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/WDAY/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for WDAY?
The latest report frames WDAY around $66 to $125. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the WDAY page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellWDAY · Fair value $95.3-25.5% · Confidence 87/100