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AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend. Fair value range: low $153, high $255, with mid-point at $204.
Stock analysis

ABBV fair value $153–$255

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-08Próxima actualización: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Precio
$202.71
▲ +0.96 (+0.47%)
Valor razonable
$204
$153–$255
Calificación
Mantener
confidence 88/100
Potencial alcista
+0.5%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$173.12
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$358.5B
P/E fwd 12.5
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Strong immunology execution offsetting Humira cliff.
  • GAAP EPS vastly understates $13B+ FCF capacity.
  • Fairly valued at current levels; maintain position.
Fair value
$204
Margin of safety
+0.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$202.71Price
Low $152.59
Mid $203.67
High $254.75

AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend.

  • Intellectual property and robust pipeline
    Intellectual property and robust pipeline in immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
  • Scale and distribution networks globally
    Scale and distribution networks globally.
  • Cycle upside
    Aging population and increasing prevalence of autoimmune diseases drive secular volume growth. Innovation in targeted therapies commands premium pricing.

§2 Caso bajista

A severe margin contraction driven by pricing reform and aggressive biosimilar uptake stresses FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics.. Debt load from Allergan acquisition amplifies equity risk, constraining dividend growth and leading to a structural multiple de-rating.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Accelerated Humira Erosion

· Medium

Biosimilar competition erodes Humira revenues significantly faster than projected, compressing margins.

FV impact
-15%

Skyrizi/Rinvoq Disappointment

· Low

Key immunology assets fail to reach peak sales targets or face unexpected safety concerns.

FV impact
-20%

Pricing Regulation

· High

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces pricing power across the pharmaceutical portfolio.

FV impact
-10%
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Humira revenue decline exceeding 35% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Skyrizi/Rinvoq sales missing internal valuation cross-checks for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting below 68%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt-to-EBITDA expanding beyond 2.5x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% of FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos

Concepto2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$58.05B$54.32B-6.4%$56.33B+3.7%$61.16B+8.6%+1.8%
Beneficio bruto$40.64B$33.90B$39.43B$42.96B+1.9%
Beneficio operativo$18.81B$13.54B$11.89B$20.09B+2.2%
Beneficio neto$11.84B$4.86B-59.0%$4.28B-11.9%$4.23B-1.2%-29.1%
BPA (diluido)$6.63$2.72$2.39$2.36-29.1%
EBITDA$24.17B$17.17B$14.91B$17.63B-10.0%
I+D$6.51B$7.68B$12.79B$9.10B+11.8%
SG&A$15.26B$12.87B$14.75B$14.01B-2.8%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
OCF / Beneficio neto
4.5×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Pass
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
11.7%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

ABBV income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of ABBV (ABBV) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
FAQ

ABBV — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABBV trades close to fair value. The current price is $203 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $204 (range $153–$255), which implies roughly 0.5% upside to the midpoint.
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