Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
DASH trades against a final fair-value range of $69.43-$224.99, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $69.4, high $225, with mid-point at $143.
Stock analysis

DASH fair value $69–$225

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-20Próxima actualización: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Precio
$162.67
▼ -19.85 (-12.20%)
Valor razonable
$143
$69–$225
Calificación
Reducir
confidence 80/100
Potencial alcista
-12.2%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$121.40
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$70.9B
P/E fwd 20.9
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $143 with high case $225.
  • Implied downside of 12.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 80/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$143
Margin of safety
-13.9%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$162.67Price
Low $69.43
Mid $142.82
High $224.99

DASH trades against a final fair-value range of $69.43-$224.99, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network Effects
    Dense two-sided liquidity between merchants, consumers, and Dashers.
  • Switching Costs
    DashPass memberships drive high recurring volume and platform lock-in.
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating digital penetration in grocery and retail expands the total addressable market, while rational duopoly pricing in US food delivery stabilizes take rates.

§2 Caso bajista

A forced reclassification of gig workers to employees drastically inflates fulfillment costs. Passing costs to consumers destroys demand elasticity, while aggressive UberEats promotions prevent take-rate expansion. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. reverses, rendering the 12% terminal margin target impossible and crashing FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics..

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Gig Worker Reclassification

· High

Federal or broad state-level mandates forcing W-2 employee status for Dashers.

FV impact
-50%
Trigger
12-24 months

Ad Revenue Stagnation

· Medium

Failure to scale the high-margin advertising business beyond core restaurant placement.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
12-18 months

Take-Rate Price War

· Medium

UberEats initiates a prolonged promotional war, capping DASH's ability to extract merchant value.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
6-12 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Declining active DashPass subscriber growth rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Take-rate compression in the core US restaurant delivery market.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Advertising revenue growth lagging overall GMV expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Spikes in Dasher acquisition and retention costs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC expense accelerating faster than operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos

Concepto2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$6.58B$8.64B+31.3%$10.72B+24.1%$13.72B+28.0%+20.1%
Beneficio bruto$3.00B$4.05B$5.18B$6.98B+23.6%
Beneficio operativo$-1.03B$-577.0M$-38.0M$725.0M
Beneficio neto$-1.37B$-558.0M$123.0M$935.0M+660.2%
BPA (diluido)$-1.39$-3.68$-1.42$0.30
EBITDA$-663.0M$-68.0M$523.0M$1.47B
I+D$829.0M$1.00B$1.17B$1.43B+14.6%
SG&A$2.83B$3.11B$3.49B$4.08B+9.6%

Puntuaciones de calidad

OCF / Beneficio neto
2.6×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
4.3%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Informe completo para cada ticker cubierto
24 meses de archivo de calificaciones
Briefings de lista de seguimiento + alertas de cambio de calificación
Exportación PDF + DOCX en cualquier idioma
Comenzar prueba gratuita
Cancela cuando quieras.
FAQ

DASH — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, DASH screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $163 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $143 (range $69.4–$225), which implies roughly 12.2% downside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of DASH also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder