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ETN trades against a final fair-value range of $201.60-$363.03, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $202, high $363, with mid-point at $282.
Stock analysis

ETN fair value $202–$363

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-09Próxima actualización: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Precio
$401.51
▼ -119.81 (-29.84%)
Valor razonable
$282
$202–$363
Calificación
Vender
confidence 87/100
Potencial alcista
-29.8%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$239.44
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$155.9B
P/E fwd 25.6
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $282 with high case $363.
  • Implied downside of 29.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$282
Margin of safety
-42.5%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$401.51Price
Low $201.6
Mid $281.7
High $363.03

ETN trades against a final fair-value range of $201.60-$363.03, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in installed
    High switching costs in installed electrical infrastructure
  • Scale advantages across global supply
    Scale advantages across global supply chain networks
  • Cycle upside
    Data center electrification and grid hardening driving an unprecedented infrastructure super-cycle.

§2 Caso bajista

A synchronized industrial recession combined with delays in grid modernization capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity).. High rates persist, freezing project financing and stalling backlog execution.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

AI Data Center CapEx Pause

· Medium

Hyperscalers pause facility build-outs, crushing the high-margin narrative growth engine.

FV impact
Severe multiple contraction towards 15-18x historical norms.
Trigger
12-24 months

Industrial Cycle Rollover

· High

Traditional vehicle and aerospace segments enter deep cyclical downturns simultaneously.

FV impact
Sharp earnings decline limits free cash flow generation and dividend growth.
Trigger
6-18 months

Grid Modernization Delays

· Low

Federal and utility grid investments are deferred due to regulatory or financing hurdles.

FV impact
Erodes structural terminal growth rate assumptions, dragging fair value down.
Trigger
24-36 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Backlog growth turns persistently negative year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins contract below the 15% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay announcements surface from major hyperscaler clients.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion falls below 90% of net income.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratio drops and remains below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos

Concepto2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$19.63B$20.75B+5.7%$23.20B+11.8%$24.88B+7.2%$27.45B+10.3%+8.7%
Beneficio bruto$6.34B$6.89B$8.43B$9.50B$10.32B+13.0%
Beneficio operativo$2.46B$3.00B$3.89B$4.63B$5.21B+20.6%
Beneficio neto$2.14B$2.46B+15.0%$3.22B+30.9%$3.79B+17.7%$4.09B+7.9%+17.5%
BPA (diluido)$5.34$6.14$8.02$9.50$10.45+18.3%
EBITDA$3.96B$4.01B$4.90B$5.62B$6.18B+11.8%
I+D$616.0M$665.0M$754.0M$794.0M$797.0M+6.7%
SG&A$3.26B$3.23B$3.80B$4.08B$4.31B+7.3%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
7 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
Altman Z-score
6.26
Riesgo de quiebra (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.55
Riesgo de manipulación de beneficios
OCF / Beneficio neto
1.09×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Pass
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
13.6%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

ETN income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of ETN (ETN) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
FAQ

ETN — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ETN looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $402 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $282 (range $202–$363), which implies roughly 29.8% downside to the midpoint.
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