Prologis, Inc. (PLD)
NYSE: PLD · Real-Time Price · USD
$144
+1.81 (+1.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PLD rated Sell
Sell. The current valuation reflects a massive disconnect from intrinsic net asset value, yielding a clear baseline fair value of $97.12.
Fair value (mid)
$97.1 / share
$83.2 – $116
Upside to FV
-32.6%
from $144
Confidence
80/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Even in an optimal scenario where secular e-commerce tailwinds drive peak occupancy and aggressive rent growth, shares remain fundamentally overvalued relative to the $115.97 upside target.
Biggest risk
E-commerce Capex Contraction
E-commerce Capex Contraction: Major tenants structurally reduce logistics footprint expansion, severely depressing new leasing activity and mark-to-market rent spreads.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The immense divergence between PLD's fundamentally sound real estate NAV ($97.12) and the current share price ($144.09) is unsustainable. Investors should rotate out immediately.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $134.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 9.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 3.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.97 | |
| Shares out | 952.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 36.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 42.4x | |
| Dividend | $4.28 (2.97%) | |
| Volume | 3,267,179 | |
| Beta | 1.35 | |
| Price target | $145 | +0.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 9.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 3.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.97
- P/E (trailing)
- 36.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 42.4x
- Market cap
- $134.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.97B | $8.02B | $8.20B | $8.79B | +13.7% |
| Gross profit | $4.46B | $6.01B | $6.14B | $6.56B | +13.7% |
| Operating income | $2.28B | $3.08B | $3.10B | $3.41B | +14.4% |
| Net income | $3.36B | $3.06B | $3.73B | $3.33B | -0.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.25 | $3.29 | $4.01 | $3.56 | -5.7% |
| EBITDA | $5.80B | $6.57B | $7.53B | $7.37B | +8.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $331.1M | $390.4M | $418.8M | $469.1M | +12.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $83.2
- Fair value (mid)
- $97.1
- Fair value (high)
- $116
- Current price
- $144
- Upside to mid
- -32.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Nav affo | $101 | 85% |
| Ddm | $75.97 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $108 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $51.08 | 0% |
| Forward earnings | $53.28 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $197 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $71.54 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $19.32 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$145
+0.3%
In the news
Latest news · PLD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $134.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 36.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 42.4x
- P/S
- 14.6x
- P/B
- 2.5x
- PEG
- 7.72
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.6%
- Operating margin
- 41.1%
- ROE
- 6.8%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- ROIC
- 3.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.61
- Current ratio
- 0.53
- Quick ratio
- 0.32
Trading
- Beta
- 1.35
- Volume
- 3,267,179
- Dividend yield
- 3.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -32.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$115.97
-19.5% from spot
Even in an optimal scenario where secular e-commerce tailwinds drive peak occupancy and aggressive rent growth, shares remain fundamentally overvalued relative to the $115.97 upside target.
- Rent spreads remain historically elevated.
- Cap rates compress.
- Terminal multiple hits 20x.
Base60%
Price target
$97.12
-32.6% from spot
Logistics demand normalizes. Our primary baseline rests 85% on NAV/AFFO, producing a $97.12 fair value that highlights a massive 36% premium in current market pricing.
- Revenue growth normalizes to 3-5%.
- Terminal multiple normalizes to 17x.
- Terminal growth settles at 2.5%.
Bear20%
Price target
$83.17
-42.3% from spot
A severe macroeconomic slowdown and localized oversupply rapidly compress rent growth, pushing fair value down to $83.17 as the market brutally corrects the implied growth premium.
- Macro recession curbs tenant expansion.
- Terminal multiple drops to 14x.
- Asset cap rates materially expand.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $97.1.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nav affo | 85% | $101 | -30.0% | |
| Ddm | 15% | $76.0 | -47.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $108 | -24.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $51.1 | -64.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 0% | $53.3 | -63.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $197 | +36.5% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $71.5 | -50.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $19.3 | -86.6% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $97.1 | -32.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $112 | $124 | $140 | $160 | $163 |
| 7.5% | $93.4 | $102 | $112 | $124 | $140 |
| 8.5% | $80.1 | $86.2 | $93.4 | $102 | $112 |
| 9.5% | $70.1 | $74.7 | $80.1 | $86.2 | $93.4 |
| 10.5% | $62.3 | $66.0 | $70.1 | $74.7 | $80.1 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation1.5
Management6.9
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.6/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Avoid long exposure entirely. Utilize put spreads given the massive structural valuation premium.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$144
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate existing long positions entirely at current $144 levels.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E42.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE6.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC3.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All PLD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
249
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 249 of 249 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PLD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PLD report
What is the current PLD stock rating?
Prologis, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PLD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PLD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PLD?
The latest report frames PLD around $83 to $116. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PLD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellPLD · Fair value $97.1-32.6% · Confidence 80/100