QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
NASDAQ: QCOM · Real-Time Price · USD
$219
+16.55 (+8.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: QCOM rated Sell
SELL. Current price embeds unrealistic growth assumptions, completely ignoring structural customer losses and near-term handset cyclicality.
Fair value (mid)
$136 / share
$102 – $171
Upside to FV
-37.9%
from $219
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: AI edge supercycle drives massive upgrade wave. Automotive and IoT become $10B+ businesses rapidly. Margins expand on premium mix.
Biggest risk
Accelerated loss of key OEM customers
Accelerated loss of key OEM customers: Apple abruptly transitions entirely to internal modems faster than expected, while Samsung shifts premium mix to Exynos.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The composite fair value midpoint of $136.11 indicates significant downside risk. Risk-reward is highly unfavorably skewed given the premium valuation against structural modem headwinds.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $230.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 44.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 9.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $9.15 | |
| Shares out | 1.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 23.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 20.7x | |
| Dividend | $3.68 (1.68%) | |
| Volume | 37,850,532 | |
| Beta | 1.49 | |
| Price target | $174 | -20.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
QUALCOMM IncorporatedQCOM
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 44.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 9.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $9.15
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.7x
- Market cap
- $230.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $44.20B | $35.82B | $38.96B | $44.28B | +0.1% |
| Gross profit | $25.57B | $19.95B | $21.90B | $24.55B | -1.3% |
| Operating income | $15.86B | $8.65B | $10.25B | $12.39B | -7.9% |
| Net income | $12.94B | $7.23B | $10.14B | $5.54B | -24.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $11.37 | $6.42 | $8.97 | $5.01 | -23.9% |
| EBITDA | $17.25B | $9.95B | $12.74B | $14.93B | -4.7% |
| R&D | $8.19B | $8.82B | $8.89B | $9.04B | +3.3% |
| SG&A | $2.57B | $2.48B | $2.76B | $3.11B | +6.6% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $102
- Fair value (mid)
- $136
- Fair value (high)
- $171
- Current price
- $219
- Upside to mid
- -37.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $153 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $155 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $182 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $122 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $81.54 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $52.70 | 5% |
| Ddm | $53.26 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$174
-20.7%
In the news
Latest news · QCOM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $230.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.7x
- P/S
- 5.2x
- P/B
- 8.5x
- PEG
- 8.71
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 54.8%
- Operating margin
- 25.7%
- ROE
- 36.1%
- ROA
- 12.7%
- ROIC
- 32.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.56
- Current ratio
- 2.37
- Quick ratio
- 1.45
Trading
- Beta
- 1.49
- Volume
- 37,850,532
- Dividend yield
- 1.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -37.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$171.08
-21.9% from spot
AI edge supercycle drives massive upgrade wave. Automotive and IoT become $10B+ businesses rapidly. Margins expand on premium mix.
- Terminal Growth 3.5%
- Operating Margin 32%
- Strong AI adoption
Base60%
Price target
$136.11
-37.9% from spot
Modest handset recovery offset by gradual Apple modem loss. Auto/IoT grow steadily. Margins normalize to historical averages.
- Terminal Growth 3.0%
- Operating Margin 28%
- Revenue CAGR flat to low-single digits
Bear20%
Price target
$101.63
-53.6% from spot
Severe recession stalls handset upgrades. MediaTek takes premium share. Regulatory pressures compress QTL margins.
- Terminal Growth 2.0%
- Operating Margin 22%
- Revenue contraction
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $136.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $153 | -30.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $155 | -29.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $182 | -16.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $122 | -44.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $81.5 | -62.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $52.7 | -75.9% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $53.3 | -75.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $136 | -37.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $155 | $166 | $180 | $195 | $214 |
| 10.3% | $136 | $145 | $155 | $166 | $180 |
| 11.3% | $121 | $128 | $136 | $145 | $155 |
| 12.3% | $110 | $115 | $121 | $128 | $136 |
| 13.3% | $99.9 | $105 | $110 | $115 | $121 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.7
Balance Sheet7.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth2.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
6.8/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 2.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Underweight or avoid at current valuation. Current price ($219.09) prices in unproven AI supercycle perfection.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$219
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Take profits or trim exposure above $170 due to cyclical nature and structural risks from customer concentration.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E20.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE36.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC32.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All QCOM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
287
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 287 of 287 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on QCOM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this QCOM report
What is the current QCOM stock rating?
QUALCOMM Incorporated is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full QCOM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/QCOM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for QCOM?
The latest report frames QCOM around $102 to $171. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the QCOM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellQCOM · Fair value $136-37.9% · Confidence 87/100