Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $114, high $227, with mid-point at $165.
Stock analysis

ZS Zscaler Inc. fair value $165–$227

ZS
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-09Próxima actualización: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
View archive
Precio
$152.13
▲ +12.60 (+8.28%)
Valor razonable
$165
$165–$227
Calificación
Mantener
confidence 76/100
Potencial alcista
+8.3%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$140.02
buy below · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$24.5B
P/E fwd 33.2
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $165 with high case $227.
  • Implied upside of 8.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$165
Margin of safety
+7.6%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.13Price
FV $164.73
High $226.95

ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating enterprise cloud migrations, perimeterless networks, and remote work permanence drive unabated best-of-breed Zero Trust adoption.

§2 Caso bajista

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn compressing enterprise IT budgets would severely test the premium valuation. If renewals stall and growth drops, the EV/Revenue multiple could collapse, exposing the lack of GAAP earnings support and heavy SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. dilutionDilutionThe increase in share count over time, typically driven by SBC vesting, equity issuance, or M&A in stock. Reduces existing shareholders' per-share claim on cash flows..

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Platform Bundling Accelerates

· Medium

Mega-cap competitors successfully bundle Zero Trust solutions, driving severe pricing compression and halting new customer acquisition.

FV impact
Downside to $113.67
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Expansion Failure

· High

Inability to scale SG&A and curb stock-based compensation permanently impairs GAAP operating margins, capping them below 20%.

FV impact
Downside to $125.00
Trigger
24-36 months

Growth Decelerates Abruptly

· Low

Macroeconomic headwinds and market saturation cause top-line growth to abruptly decelerate below 15% earlier than modeled.

FV impact
Downside to $110.00
Trigger
6-12 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Calculated billings growth decelerating significantly faster than revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dollar-based net retention rate dropping below 115%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue increasing year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sales and marketing efficiency ratios deteriorating.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increasing churn among large enterprise customers to bundled competitors.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Ingresos$1.09B$1.62B$2.17B$2.67B+34.8%
Beneficio bruto$848.7M$1.25B$1.69B$2.05B+34.3%
Beneficio operativo$-327.4M$-234.6M$-121.5M$-127.1M
Beneficio neto$-390.3M$-202.3M$-57.7M$-41.5M
BPA (diluido)$-2.77$-1.40$-0.39$-0.27
EBITDA$-277.6M$-109.2M$64.8M$108.1M
I+D$289.1M$350.8M$499.8M$672.5M+32.5%
SG&A$887.0M$1.14B$1.31B$1.51B+19.4%

Puntuaciones de calidad

OCF / Beneficio neto
-23.45
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
-0.0%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Informe completo para cada ticker cubierto
24 meses de archivo de calificaciones
Briefings de lista de seguimiento + alertas de cambio de calificación
Exportación PDF + DOCX en cualquier idioma
Comenzar prueba gratuita
Cancela cuando quieras.
FAQ

ZS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ZS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $165 (range $114–$227), which implies roughly 8.3% upside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of ZS also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit
Same sector: Information Technology