Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
NASDAQ: AMD · Real-Time Price · USD
$455
+46.73 (+11.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AMD rated Sell
Sell due to extreme valuation disconnect.
Fair value (mid)
$113 / share
$67.5 – $160
Upside to FV
-75.3%
from $455
Confidence
52/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: AMD captures 20%+ of the AI accelerator market while maintaining EPYC server CPU dominance. Revenue compounds above 30% for 5+ years, with terminal margins settling at 35%. Value approaches $159.
Biggest risk
CUDA ecosystem lock-in prevents AI accelerator share gains
CUDA ecosystem lock-in prevents AI accelerator share gains: Despite competitive hardware (MI-series), software friction and CUDA lock-in cap AMD's accelerator share below 10%, causing an abrupt revenue growth deceleration.
Recommended action
Sell
AMD is rated Sell at $455.19 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $112.52, implying -75.28% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 52/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $742.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 37.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.05 | |
| Shares out | 1.6B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 151.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 35.3x | |
| Volume | 58,229,048 | |
| Beta | 2.40 | |
| Price target | $382 | -16.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.AMD
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 37.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.05
- P/E (trailing)
- 151.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 35.3x
- Market cap
- $742.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $23.60B | $22.68B | $25.79B | $34.64B | +13.6% |
| Gross profit | $10.60B | $10.46B | $12.73B | $17.15B | +17.4% |
| Operating income | $1.26B | $401.0M | $2.09B | $3.69B | +43.0% |
| Net income | $1.32B | $854.0M | $1.64B | $4.34B | +48.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.84 | $0.53 | $1.00 | $2.65 | +46.7% |
| EBITDA | $5.53B | $4.05B | $5.15B | $7.28B | +9.5% |
| R&D | $5.01B | $5.87B | $6.46B | $8.09B | +17.4% |
| SG&A | $2.34B | $2.32B | $2.74B | $4.14B | +21.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $67.5
- Fair value (mid)
- $113
- Fair value (high)
- $160
- Current price
- $455
- Upside to mid
- -75.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Owner earnings | $132 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $102 | 35% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $71.18 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $83.50 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $80.24 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $237 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$382
-16.0%
In the news
Latest news · AMD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $742.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 151.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 35.3x
- P/S
- 19.8x
- P/B
- 11.5x
- PEG
- 1.01
- EV / EBITDA
- 98.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 53.1%
- Operating margin
- 11.8%
- ROE
- 8.1%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- ROIC
- 7.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.06
- Current ratio
- 2.72
- Quick ratio
- 1.75
Trading
- Beta
- 2.40
- Volume
- 58,229,048
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -75.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$159.62
-64.9% from spot
AMD captures 20%+ of the AI accelerator market while maintaining EPYC server CPU dominance. Revenue compounds above 30% for 5+ years, with terminal margins settling at 35%. Value approaches $159.
- Captures 20% AI TAM
- Terminal margin 35%
- Server share >35%
Base60%
Price target
$112.52
-75.3% from spot
AMD establishes a strong #2 merchant silicon position. Revenue decelerates from 41% to 3.5% terminal. Terminal operating margin caps at 25%. Fair value anchors at $112.52.
- Initial growth 41%
- Terminal margin 25%
- Terminal multiple 25x
Bear20%
Price target
$67.47
-85.2% from spot
CUDA moat proves impenetrable and custom silicon cannibalizes the remainder of the TAM. Revenue growth stalls sharply. Terminal margin compresses to 18%. Value drops to $67.47.
- AI accelerator share fails to scale
- Terminal margin 18%
- Custom silicon dominance
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $113.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner earnings | 35% | $132 | -71.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 35% | $102 | -77.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $71.2 | -84.4% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $83.5 | -81.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $80.2 | -82.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $237 | -47.8% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $113 | -75.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3% | $125 | $132 | $140 | $149 | $159 |
| 12.3% | $113 | $118 | $125 | $132 | $140 |
| 13.3% | $103 | $107 | $113 | $118 | $125 |
| 14.3% | $94.2 | $98.2 | $103 | $107 | $113 |
| 15.3% | $87.2 | $90.6 | $94.2 | $98.2 | $103 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
7.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 52/100
Target weight
Avoid long positions at current valuations. The market is pricing in a 43.5% perpetual growth rate which deterministic models cannot justify.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$455
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Sell existing long positions. The risk/reward is heavily skewed to the downside with -75% downside to base intrinsic value.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E35.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE8.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC7.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
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Deeper analysis on AMD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AMD report
What is the current AMD stock rating?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AMD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AMD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AMD?
The latest report frames AMD around $67 to $160. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AMD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellAMD · Fair value $113-75.3% · Confidence 52/100