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BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $459, high $889, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

BLK fair value $459–$889

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تحلیل شد: 2026-05-09به‌روزرسانی شد: به‌روزرسانی بعدی: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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قیمت
$1084.83
▼ -414.40 (-38.20%)
ارزش منصفانه
$670
$459–$889
رتبه‌بندی
فروش
confidence 77/100
پتانسیل رشد
-38.2%
upside to fair value
حاشیه ایمنی
$569.87
MoS level · 15%
ارزش بازار
$168.4B
P/E fwd 17.9

§1 خلاصه اجرایی

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $889.
  • Implied downside of 38.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 77/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-61.8%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,084.83Price
Low $458.59
Mid $670.43
High $888.83

BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
    Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
  • High switching costs via Aladdin
    High switching costs via Aladdin enterprise platform
  • Cycle upside
    Structural shift toward passive ETFs and scaling of private market alternatives.

§2 سناریوی نزولی

A protracted global equity bear market reduces AUM-based fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., colliding with accelerated zero-fee competitor product launches and stalling Aladdin's annual recurring revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible..

چگونگی شکست این تز

Sustained Market Stagnation

· Medium

Extended equity and fixed-income market drawdowns mechanically shrink AUM, severely degrading base management fees and operating leverage.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $458.59 low-end floor.
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Fee War Acceleration

· Low

Competitors slash expense ratios to zero across core index products, forcing BlackRock to cut fees to defend market share.

FV impact
Compresses margins, impairing EPS growth and forward multiple.
Trigger
24-36 months

Political Divestment Mandates

· Low

Legislative backlash forces major state pension funds and institutional clients to withdraw capital over ESG or proxy voting policies.

FV impact
Reduces terminal growth rate and terminal PE multiple.
Trigger
12-18 months
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیارفعلیآستانه فعال‌سازی
Consecutive quarters of net outflows in core iSharesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Aladdin revenue growth decelerating below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin compressing below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant institutional mandate lossesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising base fee realization rate discountsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 تاریخچه مالی

صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر

ردیف2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
درآمد$19.37B$17.87B-7.7%$17.86B-0.1%$20.41B+14.3%$24.22B+18.7%+5.7%
سود ناخالص$9.82B$8.68B$8.58B$10.09B$11.31B+3.6%
سود عملیاتی$7.45B$6.48B$6.34B$7.54B$7.91B+1.5%
سود خالص$5.90B$5.18B-12.2%$5.50B+6.2%$6.37B+15.8%$5.55B-12.9%-1.5%
EPS (رقیق‌شده)$38.07$33.97$36.51$42.01$35.31-1.9%
EBITDA$8.79B$6.92B$7.87B$9.36B$9.36B+1.6%
تحقیق و توسعه
هزینه‌های عمومی و فروش$2.22B$2.06B$2.09B$2.26B$2.63B+4.3%

امتیازات کیفیت

OCF / سود خالص
0.71×
>۱ نشان‌دهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Pass
دروازه تعدیل‌شده بخشی
ROIC
9.2%
بازده سرمایه‌گذاری‌شده
مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر

تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

گزارش کامل برای هر نماد تحت پوشش
بایگانی ۲۴ ماه رتبه‌بندی
بریفینگ‌های فهرست مشاهده + هشدارهای تغییر رتبه
خروجی PDF + DOCX به هر زبان
شروع آزمایش رایگان
قابل لغو در هر زمان.
FAQ

BLK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BLK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1085 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $459–$889), which implies roughly 38.2% downside to the midpoint.
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