Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
NASDAQ: CMCSA · Real-Time Price · USD
$25.4
-0.84 (-3.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CMCSA rated Strong Buy
CMCSA is rated Strong Buy at $24.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $120.75, implying +386.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Fair value (mid)
$121 / share
$91.5 – $154
Upside to FV
+386.9%
from $25.4
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.
Biggest risk
FWA Total Disruption
FWA Total Disruption: Fixed Wireless Access permanently alters broadband pricing power, causing sustained subscriber losses and collapsing broadband margins.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
CMCSA is rated Strong Buy at $24.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $120.75, implying +386.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $88.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 125.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 18.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.12 | |
| Shares out | 3.6B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 5.0x | |
| P/E (forward) | 6.5x | |
| Dividend | $1.32 (5.20%) | |
| Volume | 36,598,080 | |
| Beta | 0.69 | |
| Price target | $34.5 | +36.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Comcast CorporationCMCSA
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 125.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 18.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.12
- P/E (trailing)
- 5.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 6.5x
- Market cap
- $88.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $121.43B | $121.57B | $123.73B | $123.71B | +0.6% |
| Gross profit | $83.21B | $84.81B | $86.71B | $88.76B | +2.2% |
| Operating income | $22.62B | $23.31B | $23.30B | $20.67B | -3.0% |
| Net income | $5.37B | $15.39B | $16.19B | $20.00B | +55.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.21 | $3.71 | $4.14 | $5.39 | +64.5% |
| EBITDA | $27.00B | $38.90B | $37.61B | $46.39B | +19.8% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $8.51B | $7.97B | $8.07B | $8.86B | +1.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $91.5
- Fair value (mid)
- $121
- Fair value (high)
- $154
- Current price
- $25.4
- Upside to mid
- +386.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $119 | 75% |
| Owner earnings | $201 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $12.79 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $60.75 | 0% |
| Ddm | $19.85 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $75.57 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$34.5
+36.0%
In the news
Latest news · CMCSA
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $88.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 5.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 6.5x
- P/S
- 0.7x
- P/B
- 1.0x
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 70.1%
- Operating margin
- 15.3%
- ROE
- 20.9%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- ROIC
- 8.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.07
- Current ratio
- 0.87
- Quick ratio
- 0.71
Trading
- Beta
- 0.69
- Volume
- 36,598,080
- Dividend yield
- 5.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +341.2% expected return to fair value
Bull10%
Price target
$153.58
+519.3% from spot
Broadband competitive pressures ease entirely while theme parks drive high-margin growth, restoring legacy market premiums to the equity.
- Owner earnings floor (15% weight) dynamics drive upside.
- Peacock scales to profitability rapidly.
- Terminal growth exceeds 1% stabilization.
Base40%
Price target
$120.75
+386.9% from spot
The enterprise successfully navigates turnaround headwinds. Resilient operating cash flow easily services debt obligations, forcing a radical upward re-rating from distressed levels.
- FCFF DCF anchors valuation with a dominant 75% weight.
- 11.5% maintenance capex sustains going-concern asset viability.
- WACC remains stable at 5.65%.
Bear50%
Price target
$91.52
+269.0% from spot
Market skepticism proves partially correct as FWA competition and linear runoff compress margins, though robust baseline cash flows prevent a complete wipeout.
- Forward earnings cross-check exerts heavier drag on enterprise value.
- Revenue contraction exceeds 1.6% in near term.
- WACC structurally higher than modeled 5.65% due to debt risks.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $121.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 75% | $119 | +369.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $201 | +689.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 10% | $12.8 | -49.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $60.8 | +139.2% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $19.9 | -21.9% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $75.6 | +197.5% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $121 | +386.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($120.75). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.7% | $138 | $149 | $161 | $176 | $193 |
| 11.7% | $121 | $129 | $138 | $149 | $161 |
| 12.7% | $107 | $114 | $121 | $129 | $138 |
| 13.7% | $96.6 | $102 | $107 | $114 | $121 |
| 14.7% | $87.8 | $92.0 | $96.6 | $102 | $107 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
5.8/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Size conservatively (maximum 3-5% of portfolio) to account for the elevated 50% bear-case probability and severe negative sentiment.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$25.4
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Exit if WACC structurally reprices above 8% due to debt refinancing failures, or if FCF falls materially short of the $25B baseline trajectory.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E6.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE20.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CMCSA indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
282
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CMCSA
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CMCSA report
What is the current CMCSA stock rating?
Comcast Corporation is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CMCSA analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CMCSA/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CMCSA?
The latest report frames CMCSA around $92 to $154. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CMCSA page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyCMCSA · Fair value $121+386.9% · Confidence 80/100