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Chevron Corporation (CVX)

NYSE: CVX · Real-Time Price · USD
$182
-0.88 (-0.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research

Our analysis: CVX rated Buy

Buy based on a 20.6% discount to mid-cycle valuation and robust capital return profile.

Fair value (mid)
$219 / share
$161 – $285
Upside to FV
+20.6%
from $182
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo
9-phase methodology · same model every month
Biggest opportunityBull case · highest-impact upside lever

Bull: Sustained high oil prices driven by structural underinvestment in global energy supply, combined with Chevron's low-cost Permian production growth, yields massive free cash flow that is aggressively returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

Biggest riskTop kill scenario by severity
Accelerated Energy Transition

Accelerated Energy Transition: Rapid policy mandates and EV adoption permanently destroy structural oil demand, stranding long-cycle upstream assets and structurally compressing margins.

Recommended actionConviction: high
Buy

CVX is rated Buy at $181.45 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $218.82, implying +20.60% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.

Position sizing playbook →
Market cap$358.7B
Revenue (ttm)185.7B
Net income (ttm)11B
EPS (ttm)$5.75
Shares out2B
P/E (trailing)31.6x
P/E (forward)15.1x
Dividend$7.12 (3.92%)
Volume13,051,210
Beta0.50
Price target$194+6.6%
Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Chevron CorporationCVX
—
Loading chart…

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm)
185.7B
Net income (ttm)
11B
EPS (ttm)
$5.75
P/E (trailing)
31.6x
P/E (forward)
15.1x
Market cap
$358.7B

Scenarios & expected return

Probability-weighted: +15.0% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$285.10
+57.1% from spot

Sustained high oil prices driven by structural underinvestment in global energy supply, combined with Chevron's low-cost Permian production growth, yields massive free cash flow that is aggressively returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

  • Sustained high oil prices from structural underinvestment
  • Low-cost Permian production growth
Base50%
Price target
$218.82
+20.6% from spot

Normalizing commodity cycle where CVX maintains pricing discipline. The synthesized fair value of $218.82 is robustly anchored to Forward Earnings ($149.33) and FCFF DCF ($269.78) to capture reliable mid-cycle cash generation and return profiles.

  • Normalizing commodity cycle with pricing discipline
  • FCFF anchored to mid-cycle cash generation
Bear35%
Price target
$161.36
-11.1% from spot

An accelerated global energy transition and hostile regulatory environments lead to structurally lower commodity demand, compressing margins, decreasing return on capital, and potentially stranding long-cycle upstream assets, driving valuation to cycle floors.

  • Accelerated global energy transition
  • Structurally lower commodity demand

Valuation models & bridge

Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $219.
ModelWeightFV / sharevs spotContribution
Forward earnings50%$149-17.8%
FCFF DCF35%$270+48.5%
Owner earnings15%$332+82.5%
Reverse DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
Ddm0%$222+22.1%
Discounted earnings0%$391+115.3%
Peg adjusted peer0%$65.3-64.0%
Multi stage moat fade0%$192+5.8%
Composite FV (weighted)100%$219+20.6%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Ke ↓ / g →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.2%$319$383$383$383$383
4.2%$219$259$319$383$383
5.2%$167$189$219$259$319
6.2%$135$149$167$189$219
7.2%$120$123$135$149$167

Scorecard

Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
ValuationManagementBalanceProfitabilityRevenueRiskCompetitiveEarningsCapital
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment8.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.1/10
Above average
CategoryWeightScoreReading
Valuation11%5.0
Management11%7.3
Balance Sheet11%7.0
Profitability11%5.0
Revenue Growth11%4.5
Risk Assessment11%8.5
Competitive Moat11%6.5
Earnings Quality11%6.0
Capital Efficiency11%5.5

Position sizing & entry playbook

Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core cyclical holding. Size conservatively to accommodate inherent commodity price volatility.
of equity sleeve
Current price of $181.44 offers an attractive 20.6% upside to the base case of $218.82, supported by strong fundamentals.
Current / pullbacks
Current price
Today’s last trade
$182
Re-evaluate if operating cash flow deteriorates below the dividend run-rate or structural demand destruction accelerates materially.
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
  • Re-evaluate if operating cash flow deteriorates below the dividend run-rate or structural demand destruction accelerates materially.
Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E15.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE6.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC4.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a

All CVX indicators

Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 278 of 278 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

25
MetricValue
Cik
0000093410
Company name
Chevron Corporation
Country
United States
Country code
US
Cusip
166764100
Employees
43,039
Employees Change
-2,259%
Employees Change Percent
-4.99
Enterprise value
$399.2B
Exchange
NYSE
Financial currency
USD
First seen
2026-05-09
In Index
SP500, DOW30
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated
Isin
US1667641005
Last refreshed
2026-05-10
Market cap
$359.1B
Market cap category
Mega-Cap
Price
$182
Price currency
USD
Rev Per Employee
4,315,620.72x
Sector
Energy
Sic
2911
Symbol
CVX
Website
https://www.chevron.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

17
MetricValue
Earnings Yield
3.07%
EV Earnings
36.27x
EV Sales Forward
1.8x
EV/EBIT
24.61x
EV/EBITDA
10.53x
EV/FCF
28.97x
EV/Sales
2.15x
FCF yield
3.84%
Forward P/E
11.41x
P/B ratio
1.95x
P/E ratio
31.59x
P/S ratio
1.93x
PE Ratio10 Y
22.98x
PE Ratio3 Y
18.28x
PE Ratio5 Y
18.06x
PEG ratio
0.98x
PS Forward
1.62x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

25
MetricValue
EBIT Margin
8.73%
EBITDA Margin
20.41%
FCF margin
7.42%
Gross margin
42.42%
Gross Profit
$78.8B
Gross Profit Growth
3.75%
Gross Profit Growth Q
7.9%
Gross Profit Growth3 Y
-5.4%
Gross Profit Growth5 Y
12.72%
Net Income
$11B
Net Income Growth
-29.7%
Net Income Growth Q
-36.86%
Net Income Growth Years
0%
Net Income Growth3 Y
-32.49%
Pretax Margin
9.75%
Profit Margin
5.93%
Profit Per Employee
$255,791
Profitable Years
5
ROA
3.46
Roa5y
6.08
ROCE
5.64
ROE
6.64
Roe5y
13.4
ROIC
4.37
Roic5y
9.85

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

27
MetricValue
Cagr10y
10.56%
Cagr15y
8.14%
Cagr1y
39.8%
Cagr20y
9.63%
Cagr3y
8.78%
Cagr5y
15.25%
Div CAGR10
5.01%
Div CAGR3
6%
Div CAGR5
6.02%
EPS Growth
-34.26
EPS Growth Q
-44.5
EPS Growth Years
0
EPS Growth3 Y
-32.33
FCF Growth
1.58%
FCF Growth3 Y
-27.19%
FCF Growth5 Y
40.51%
OCF Growth
4.73%
OCF Growth Q
-51.55%
OCF Growth10 Y
5.51%
OCF Growth3 Y
-13.76%
OCF Growth5 Y
25.48%
Revenue Growth
-4.79x
Revenue Growth Q
2.32x
Revenue Growth Quarters
1x
Revenue Growth Years
0x
Revenue Growth3 Y
-7.32x
Revenue Growth5 Y
14.24x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

22
MetricValue
Asset Turnover
$0.63
Assets
$329.6B
Cash
$5.3B
Current Assets
$46.2B
Current Liabilities
$42.2B
Debt
$45.4B
Debt EBITDA
$1.2
Debt Equity
$0.24
Debt FCF
$3.3
Equity
$189.4B
Interest Coverage
11.85
Liabilities
$140.2B
Long Term Assets
$283.4B
Long Term Liabilities
$98B
Net Cash
$-40.1B
Net Cash By Market Cap
$-11.17
Net Debt EBITDA
$1.06
Net Debt Equity
$0.21
Net Debt FCF
$2.91
Tangible Book Value
$179.1B
Tangible Book Value Per Share
$90.6
WACC
6.43

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

6
MetricValue
Current ratio
1.09
Inventory Turnover
10.85
Net Working Capital
$4.5B
Quick ratio
0.73
Working Capital
$4B
Working Capital Turnover
$54.18

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

10
MetricValue
Buyback Yield
-6.81%
Dividend Growth
4.49%
Dividend Growth Years
39%
Dividend per share
$7.12
Dividend Years
56
Dividend Yield
3.92%
Ex Div Date
2026-05-19
Last Dividend
$1.78
Payout Frequency
Quarterly
Payout Ratio
121.42%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

42
MetricValue
10Y total return
172.72%
1Y total return
39.77%
200-day SMA
167.4
3Y total return
28.71%
50-day SMA
193.2
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA
50over200
5Y total return
103.29%
All Time High
214.7
All Time High Change
-15.41%
All Time High Date
2026-03-30
All Time Low
0.21
All Time Low Change
88,022.27%
All Time Low Date
1970-07-07
ATR
5.08
Beta
0.5
Beta1y
-0.21
Beta2y
0.28
Ch YTD
19.17
High
182.7
High52
214.7
High52 Date
2026-03-30
High52ch
-15.41%
Low
180.7
Low52
133.8
Low52 Date
2025-05-22
Low52ch
35.77%
Ma50ch
-5.98%
Premarket Change Percent
-0.35
Premarket Price
$182
Premarket Volume
40,708
Price vs 200-day SMA
8.47%
RSI
38.15
RSI Monthly
57
RSI Weekly
53.24
Sharpe ratio
1.49x
Sortino ratio
2.48
Total Return
-2.89%
Tr YTD
20.33
Tr15y
223.62%
Tr1m
-9.88%
Tr1w
-4.73%
Tr3m
1.4%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

17
MetricValue
Analyst Count
20
Analyst Count Top
10
Analyst Price Target Top
$192
Analyst Ratings
Buy
Analyst Ratings Top
Buy
Earnings EPS Estimate
$0.96
Earnings EPS Estimate Growth
-55.96
Earnings Revenue Estimate
51,632,508,936x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth
8.45x
Operating Income
$16.2B
Operating Income Growth
-21.54
Operating Income Growth Q
-28.74
Operating Income Growth3 Y
-27.97
Operating margin
8.73
Price target
$194
Price Target Change
$6.57
Price Target Change Top
$5.77

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

11
MetricValue
Float
1,836,061,268%
Float Percent
92.85%
Net Borrowing
5,478,000,000
Shares Insiders
0.46%
Shares Institutions
68.41%
Shares Out
1,977,429,732
Shares Qo Q
-0.56%
Shares Yo Y
6.81%
Short Float
1.09%
Short Ratio
1.4
Short Shares
1.01

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

76
MetricValue
Adjusted FCF
$13.8B
Average Volume
9,986,963.85x
Bv Per Share
92.91
CAPEX
$-17.5B
Ch10y
78.3
Ch15y
76.54
Ch1m
-9.88
Ch1w
-4.73
Ch1y
33.75
Ch20y
191.3
Ch3m
0.42
Ch3y
13.36
Ch5y
65.08
Ch6m
17.16
Change
-0.48%
Change From Open
-0.23
Close
182.5
Days Gap
-0.25
Depreciation Amortization
21,685,000,000
Dollar Volume
2,370,360,760.2
Earnings Date
2026-05-01
Earnings Time
bmo
EBIT
$16.2B
EBITDA
$37.9B
EPS
$5.75
F Score
6
FCF
$13.8B
FCF EV Yield
3.45x
FCF Per Share
$6.97
Financing CF
-17,847,000,000
Fiscal Year End
December
Founded
1,879
Goodwill
4,568,000,000
Graham Number
109.62304
Graham Upside
-39.64
Income Tax
$6.8B
Investing CF
-13,305,000,000
Is Primary Listing
1
Is Spac
No
Last Earnings Date
2026-05-01
Last Report Date
2026-03-31
Last Split Date
2004-09-13
Last Split Type
Forward
Last10k Filing Date
2026-02-24
Lynch Fair Value
$28.74
Lynch Upside
-84.17
Ma150
171.2
Ma150ch
6.09%
Ma20
187.4
Ma20ch
-3.08%
Net CF
150,000,000
Next Earnings Date
2026-07-31
Open
182
Optionable
Yes
P FCF Ratio
26.06
P OCF Ratio
11.49
Payment Date
2026-06-10
Position In Range
44.22
Post Close
181.6
Postmarket Change Percent
-0.09
Postmarket Price
$181
Ppne
218,149,000,000
Pre Close
182.5
Price Date
2026-05-08
Price EBITDA
$9.47
Ptbv Ratio
2
Relative Volume
1.31x
Revenue
185,740,000,000x
Tax By Revenue
3.68x
Tax Rate
37.78%
Tr20y
528.88%
Tr6m
19.63%
Us State
Texas
Views
202
Volume
13,051,210
Z Score
2.9

Deeper analysis on CVX

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
→
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
→
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
→
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
→
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
→
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
→
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
→
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
→
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
→
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
→
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
→
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
→
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
→
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
→

Frequently asked questions

About this CVX report
What is the current CVX stock rating?
Chevron Corporation is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CVX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CVX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CVX?
The latest report frames CVX around $161 to $285. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CVX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyCVX · Fair value $219+20.6% · Confidence 88/100
Read full analysis →