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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
GILD — frequently asked questions
Is Gilead Sciences Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-09, GILD trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۱۴۷ versus our fair value of USD ۱۴۰; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۲۷۳. That implies roughly 4.8% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-09, gives GILD a fair value of USD ۱۴۰ and a potential value of USD ۲۷۳. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Gilead Sciences Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy GILD now?
Our latest published rating for GILD, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Hold. Gilead Sciences Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of USD ۱۴۷ versus fair value of USD ۱۴۰; potential value is USD ۲۷۳. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for GILD?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-09 documents Gilead Sciences Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is GILD's rating?
Our latest published rating for GILD, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 1/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of USD ۱۴۰, the potential value of USD ۲۷۳, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۱۴۷).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه بهروز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیهایHold
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$146.64
Fair value
$139.59
Potential value
$273.40
As of
2026-09-08
چرا این سناریو میتواند موفق باشد
The strongest upside path is FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS meeting analyst consensus estimates, which would support the near-term recovery case.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر میدهد
Annual HIV product-sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Hold. The $146.64 report-date price was above Fair value of $139.59. HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 consolidated revenue of $29.44 billion, making sustained contraction the main risk. FY2027 revenue estimates and FY2025 free cash flow provide the clearest upside support.1,3,4,5,6
The report used the September 8, 2026 price of $146.64, retrieved September 9. is $139.59, while is $273.40 and requires stronger outcomes.
The main risk is sustained HIV contraction. Because HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 sales, consecutive annual declines would weaken consolidated revenue, margins, earnings, and cash.6
The clearest upside path requires FY2027 revenue to remain within the supplied estimate range, free cash flow to remain strong, and non-HIV sales to increase from the smaller cell-therapy base.1,4,6
Cycle upside
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base, supporting consolidated revenue without relying on physical-capacity expansion.6
Evidence-backed thesis
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
Cycle upside
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.5,6
توصیه داخلی
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
نمای کلی شرکت
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. sells and distribute most of its products in the U.S. exclusively through the wholesale channel. Historically, approximately 90% of its gross product sales in the U.S. have been to three large wholesalers—Cardinal Health, Inc., Cencora, Inc. and McKesson Corporation—and their specialty distributor affiliates.
Prices for its products are based on local market economics and competition and sometimes differ from country to country. Its sales in countries with relatively higher prices may be reduced if products can be imported and resold into those countries from lower price markets.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
The harsh coherent path combines two years of HIV contraction, a normalized consolidated operating margin below 32%, and higher required returns. This margin means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue. Sales, profit, cash, and what investors pay for future earnings would fall together.
HIV sales contract across consecutive fiscal years.
Recurring operating margins weaken enough to show that adjusted FY2027 earnings do not represent lasting profitability.1
HIV contraction would reduce the largest revenue stream. If normalized consolidated operating margin also fell, recurring companywide operating profit would weaken as a share of revenue. Cash generation would decline, while higher required returns would reduce the value of future cash flows.
چگونگی شکست این تز
Sustained HIV contraction
Annual HIV sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years would shrink the largest revenue stream, weakening margins, earnings, and distributable cash.
FV impact
-6.7%
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
Trigger
Within 24 months
Recurring margin failure
A recurring operating margin below 32% within 24 months would show that adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable profitability and cash generation.
سیگنالهای هشدار اولیه برای پایش
پنج تحولی که میتواند تز سرمایهگذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
01
HIV sales growth
HIV is the largest product group, so sustained contraction would reduce consolidated sales before weakening operating leverage, earnings, and cash available for distributions.
وضعیت فعلی:FY2025 HIV sales were $20.75 billion.
هشدار در صورتGrowth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Strong cash generation and HIV scale support present earnings, but neither proves switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, or efficient scale. Structural protection beyond the FY2027 estimate period is not established.
سود اقتصادی
FY2025 free cash flow supports economic value, but future excess returns remain conditional on product durability and disciplined reinvestment.4
1/ 10
None
تهدیدات شناختهشده برای خندق
تهدید
شدت
بازه زمانی
کاهش
HIV product concentration
high
Over the next two fiscal years
Require non-HIV products to offset any sustained HIV decline before extending the assumed growth period.6
Short earnings visibility
medium
Beyond FY2027
Keep longer-run growth conditional on new product evidence rather than extending the near-term recovery estimates.1
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
§5 حساسیت
نرخ تنزیل
رشد نهایی
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.9%
$166.00
$179.76
$198.99
$227.80
$275.83
5.9%
$142.94
$150.61
$160.44
$173.53
$191.82
6.9%
$127.89
$132.68
$139.59
$145.83
$155.20
7.9%
$117.18
$120.41
$124.23
$128.80
$134.37
8.9%
$109.09
$111.40
$114.05
$117.13
$120.77
ردیفها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستونها: رشد نهایی.
تغییر مدت (سال)
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($139.59). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $10.4B after modeled capex of $563.0M, with terminal value at 65.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Growth fades after FY2027 rather than continuing to accelerate.
FY2027 analyst consensus estimates support higher revenue and adjusted earnings. Growth then slows because HIV concentration limits the evidence for a longer expansion.1
A larger non-HIV contribution is required; FY2025 cell-therapy sales establish a starting level, not future growth.6
Free cash flow would need to remain strong relative to the FY2025 reported level.
§7 درخت تصمیم سودEN
بیش از انتظار
Maintain the current rating and reassess only after the improvement persists.
محرک: Revenue and adjusted earnings exceed their FY2027 analyst consensus ranges while HIV sales remain stable. The normalized consolidated operating margin stays at or above 32% for the monitored fiscal period. It means recurring operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue.1
Higher revenue and adjusted earnings would strengthen the FY2027 outlook, but one strong result would not establish lasting growth.
مطابق
Maintain the current rating with no change in exposure.
Results within the FY2027 analyst consensus ranges would support near-term sales and earnings without proving that growth continues beyond FY2027.
کمتر از انتظار
Review reducing exposure if weaker revenue or recurring margins point to lower earnings and cash flow.
محرک: Revenue or adjusted earnings fall below their FY2027 analyst consensus ranges, or HIV sales contract. A normalized consolidated operating margin below 32% means recurring operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, has weakened as a share of revenue.1
As a scenario inference, a broad miss would weaken the revenue base and leave less operating profit and cash if margins also deteriorate.
کیفیت سود
FY2025 operating cash exceeded net income, but adjusted FY2027 EPS must remain separate from recurring reported economics.5
The FY2025 filing observations were published 2026-02-24 and retrieved 2026-09-09. Cash flow exceeded reported net income, supporting the quality of that year's earnings.5
تخصیص سرمایه
Total debt was $26.25 billion on 2026-09-09, while cash was $7.56 billion at FY2025. Because the dates differ, these figures do not provide a matching-date net debt measure.
پل جریان نقدیچگونگی تبدیل جریان نقدی عملیاتی به جریان نقدی آزاد در FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تطبیق جریان نقد عملیاتی
سود خالص$ ۸٫۵ میلیارداستهلاک و کاهش ارزش+$ ۲٫۸ میلیاردجبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام+$ ۸۹۴ میلیونسایر تعدیلات عملیاتی−$ ۲٫۱ میلیاردجریان نقدی عملیاتی$ ۱۰ میلیارد
تطبیق نقد ابتدای دوره تا پایان دوره
نقد ابتدای دوره$ ۱۰ میلیاردجریان نقدی عملیاتی+$ ۱۰ میلیاردجریان نقد سرمایهگذاری−$ ۴٫۸ میلیاردجریان نقد تأمین مالی−$ ۷٫۷ میلیارداثر نرخ ارز+$ ۹۲ میلیوننقد پایان دوره$ ۷٫۶ میلیارد
$ ۱۰ میلیارد − $ ۵۶۳ میلیونجریان نقدی آزاد $ ۹٫۵ میلیارد
دادههای پل جریان نقدی
سود خالص
$۸٬۵۱۰٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
ورودی نقد عملیاتی
$۱۲٬۱۶۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
استهلاک و کاهش ارزش
$۲٬۷۶۰٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
جبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام
$۸۹۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
جریان نقدی عملیاتی
$۱۰٬۰۱۹٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
خروجی نقد عملیاتی
$۲٬۱۴۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
نقد در دسترس
$۲۰٬۱۰۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
نقد ابتدای دوره
$۹٬۹۹۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
اثر نرخ ارز
$۹۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
خروجی نقد سرمایهگذاری
$۴٬۷۹۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
مخارج سرمایهای
$۵۶۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
سایر فعالیتهای سرمایهگذاری
$۴٬۲۳۰٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
خروجی نقد تأمین مالی
$۷٬۷۴۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
بازخرید سهام
$۱٬۹۲۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
سود سهام پرداختشده
$۴٬۰۰۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
خالص بازپرداخت بدهی
$۱٬۷۸۸٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
سایر فعالیتهای تأمین مالی
$۳۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
نقد پایان دوره
$۷٬۵۶۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
جریان نقد سرمایهگذاری
−$۴٬۷۹۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
جریان نقد تأمین مالی
−$۷٬۷۴۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
درآمد بر اساس دسته کسبوکارسهم از کل درآمد در 2025-12-31.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) trades at 15.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.9x compares with a peer median of 11.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Pfizer Inc., AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Sanofi, as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-09.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Contraction
The pharmaceutical benchmark dated 2026-09-01 shows capital spending at 1.1% of revenue and 0.8 times depreciation, indicating restrained industry investment.
چرخه صعودی
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.
چرخه نزولی
Weak HIV demand would transmit quickly because HIV remains the dominant product group. Geographic diversification may soften a local shock, but US revenue remains the largest disclosed category.
FY2025 Europe and Rest of World revenue were meaningful, but US revenue was $20.88 billion of $29.44 billion consolidated revenue.
موقعیتیابی
Gilead enters this demand-led cycle with substantial cash generation, but product concentration limits protection against an HIV-specific slowdown.4,6
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
No allocation increase. The report-date price exceeds Fair value. HIV was the dominant FY2025 product group, so concentration and wide valuation outcomes limit support for a larger position.3,5,6
ریسک
Do not use the upper cash-based valuation outcomes as stand-alone sizing support because their reinvestment assumptions overlap.
بخشهای ورود
سطح
اقدام
چرا
FY2027 revenue growth at or above 2.5% and recurring operating margin at or above 32%
Reassess the Hold after both conditions are reported.
These conditions would preserve the recovery bridge and sustainable earnings base.
If either FY2027 estimate falls below its cited range, review reducing exposure because the recovery path would have failed its stated test.1
§12 دیدگاههای سرمایهگذارانEN
Existing shareholder
Hold
Cash generation supports ownership, but the report-date price exceeds Fair value and HIV concentration limits growth duration.4
Prospective investor
Hold
Wait for the FY2027 recovery and recurring margin evidence rather than relying on Potential value.1
Income-focused investor
Hold
FY2025 free cash flow supports distributions, although debt and concentration reduce flexibility during a setback.3,4
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
نگهداری
Hold because the report-date price was above Fair value. FY2027 revenue estimates support a near-term recovery, but HIV concentration limits its likely duration.1,3,5,6
The case can improve if FY2027 analyst consensusrevenue and adjusted earnings are met, recurring operating margin stays at or above 32%, and cell therapy contributes more.
§15یادداشتهای شما
تز سرمایهگذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
یادداشتهای خصوصی
فقط برای شما قابل مشاهده است. روی همین دستگاه ذخیره میشود.
۰ نویسه
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A moderate cost of equity above 9.2834% within 12 months would reduce the present value of distant cash flows and weaken long-duration valuation support.
FV impact
-17.7%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
Slower FY2027 growth would bring mature growth forward, reducing the sales base that supports future earnings and cash flow.
وضعیت فعلی:Analyst consensus estimates FY2027 revenue at $32.68 billion as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
A breach would show that each dollar of sales produces less recurring operating profit. That would weaken cash generation and indicate that provider-adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable companywide economics.
هشدار در صورتNormalized consolidated operating margin below 32% within 24 months. This means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue.
Higher required returns would lower what investors pay for future cash flows, with the greatest pressure on valuations that depend more heavily on distant years.
وضعیت فعلی:Moderate cost of equity was 7.2834% on 2026-09-09.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Improvement beyond FY2027 requires a larger non-HIV contribution and strong free cash flow. These are scenario conditions, while the cited evidence records FY2025 levels. Lower cell-therapy sales or weaker free cash flow would disconfirm this path.4,6
Annual estimate remains supportive.
چرا مهم است
A lower annual estimate would shorten the recovery period and reduce future cash expectations.1