The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
NYSE: HD · Real-Time Price · USD
$317
-5.19 (-1.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: HD rated Reduce
HD is rated Reduce at $322.64 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $255.36, implying -20.85% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$255 / share
$192 – $319
Upside to FV
-20.9%
from $317
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Intrinsic cash flow models strictly signal downside expectation risk.
Biggest risk
Mortgage Lock-in Stagnation
The fundamental mature dividend payer profile does not mathematically support a $322 current price.
Recommended action
Reduce
HD is rated Reduce at $322.64 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $255.36, implying -20.85% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $321.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 164.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 14.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $14.2 | |
| Shares out | 996M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 22.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.8x | |
| Dividend | $9.32 (2.94%) | |
| Volume | 4,995,473 | |
| Beta | 1.00 | |
| Price target | $423 | +33.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
The Home Depot, Inc.HD
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 164.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 14.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $14.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.8x
- Market cap
- $321.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $151.16B | $157.40B | $152.67B | $159.51B | $164.68B | +2.2% |
| Gross profit | $50.83B | $52.78B | $50.96B | $53.31B | $54.87B | +1.9% |
| Operating income | $23.04B | $24.04B | $21.69B | $21.53B | $20.89B | -2.4% |
| Net income | $16.43B | $17.11B | $15.14B | $14.81B | $14.16B | -3.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $15.53 | $16.69 | $15.11 | $14.91 | $14.23 | -2.2% |
| EBITDA | $25.95B | $27.07B | $25.11B | $25.49B | $25.14B | -0.8% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $25.41B | $26.28B | $26.60B | $28.75B | $30.70B | +4.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $192
- Fair value (mid)
- $255
- Fair value (high)
- $319
- Current price
- $317
- Upside to mid
- -20.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $260 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $226 | 30% |
| Ddm | $153 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $521 | 10% |
| Discounted earnings | $269 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $84.38 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$423
+33.2%
In the news
Latest news · HD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $321.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.8x
- P/S
- 1.9x
- P/B
- 24.7x
- PEG
- 4.01
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.3%
- Operating margin
- 12.7%
- ROE
- 145.5%
- ROA
- 13.0%
- ROIC
- 20.7%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 5.14
- Current ratio
- 1.06
- Quick ratio
- 0.22
Trading
- Beta
- 1.00
- Volume
- 4,995,473
- Dividend yield
- 2.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -20.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$319.01
-1.1% from spot
An unlocking of the housing market via lower mortgage rates spurs existing home sales, driving outsized growth in high-ticket Pro projects and expanding operating margins through leverage.
- Housing market thaws rapidly
- Operating margins expand above 14%
- Terminal growth exceeds 3%
Base60%
Price target
$255.36
-20.9% from spot
Stable duopoly dynamics sustain robust cash generation, but current valuation implies 6.65% long-term growth versus our fundamental expectation of 3.42%. Valuation synthesis explicitly bridges this major divergence gap.
- 13% normalized operating margin
- 2.5% terminal growth rate
- Moderate revenue recovery aligned with GDP
Bear20%
Price target
$192.08
-40.5% from spot
Sustained high interest rates and a weakening consumer lead to prolonged stagnation in big-ticket discretionary home improvement spending, pressuring top-line growth and operating margins.
- Prolonged housing stagnation
- Sub-12% operating margins
- Erosion of Pro customer backlogs
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $255.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 30% | $260 | -18.1% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $226 | -28.8% | |
| Ddm | 20% | $153 | -51.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $521 | +64.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $269 | -15.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $84.4 | -73.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $255 | -20.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $317 | $355 | $404 | $455 | $455 |
| 7.1% | $260 | $286 | $317 | $355 | $404 |
| 8.1% | $221 | $239 | $260 | $286 | $317 |
| 9.1% | $192 | $205 | $221 | $239 | $260 |
| 10.1% | $169 | $180 | $192 | $205 | $221 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.0
Revenue Growth2.5
Risk Assessment4.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
5.6/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 2.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Avoid or deeply underweight. Market pricing demands flawless execution.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$317
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure above $300 as the margin of safety is materially negative.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE145.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC20.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All HD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
282
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on HD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this HD report
What is the current HD stock rating?
The Home Depot, Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full HD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/HD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for HD?
The latest report frames HD around $192 to $319. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the HD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceHD · Fair value $255-20.9% · Confidence 88/100