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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
HRL — frequently asked questions
Is Hormel Foods Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, HRL looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۲۰٫۸ versus our fair value of USD ۲۳٫۸; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۳۸٫۲. That implies roughly 14.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives HRL a fair value of USD ۲۳٫۸ and a potential value of USD ۳۸٫۲. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Hormel Foods Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy HRL now?
Our latest published rating for HRL, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Buy. Hormel Foods Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۲۰٫۸ versus fair value of USD ۲۳٫۸; potential value is USD ۳۸٫۲. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for HRL?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Hormel Foods Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is HRL's rating?
Our latest published rating for HRL, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD ۲۳٫۸, the potential value of USD ۳۸٫۲, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۲۰٫۸).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه بهروز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیهایBuy
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$20.83
Fair value
$23.82
Potential value
$38.24
As of
2026-09-18
چرا این سناریو میتواند موفق باشد
Foodservice institutional expansion ($3,941.8M in FY2025 revenue) combined with protein input cost deflation expands consolidated operating margins toward 8.95%, unlocking Potential value of $38.24.
We rate Hormel Foods Corporation as Buy. The shares trade at an attractive discount to their intrinsic value, offering 14.35% upside to Fair value as institutional foodservice demand and protein supply chains normalize.
The house rating is Buy. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation indicates an attractive entry point where long-term cash flow prospects exceed the price paid.
The report was prepared at a price of $20.83 on 2026-09-18. This price sits below our Fair value of $23.82, representing 14.35% upside, with long-term Potential value reaching $38.24 if operating profitability recovers fully.
The primary risk to this thesis is customer pricing pressure at Walmart, which represents 15.6% of net sales. If private-label store brands force further price cuts, consolidated operating margin could fall below 5.5%, reducing free cash flow below $500M and straining annual dividend coverage.4,5,6
The primary driver of recovery is the Foodservice business, which generated $3,941.8M in revenue and supported $845.3M in operating cash flow in FY2025. As restaurant traffic stabilizes and protein costs moderate, operating margins should rebound toward 8.5%, increasing cash generation and lifting shareholder value.5,6
At $20.83 on 2026-09-18, the stock trades at a 14.35% discount to our Fair value of $23.82, providing a solid margin of safety for a defensive dividend payer.3
Foodservice Channel Cash Generation
The Foodservice segment contributed $3,941.8M in FY2025 revenue and supported $845.3M in operating cash flow, serving as an engine of volume growth.5,6
Core shelf-stable and refrigerated franchises preserve grocery shelf space, allowing consolidated operating margins to normalize from the 5.94% trough toward 8.5%.5,6
توصیه داخلی
We rate Hormel Foods Corporation a Buy because the shares trade at a 14.35% discount to Fair value while durable brands and institutional foodservice cash flow support multi-year operating margin recovery.
نمای کلی شرکت
The Company develops, processes, and distributes a wide array of food products in a variety of markets and manufactures its products through various processing facilities and trusted co-manufacturers. The Company’s products primarily consist of meat, nuts, and other food products sold across multiple distribution channels, such as U.S. retail, U.S. foodservice, and internationally.
All operating segments compete on the basis of price, product quality and attributes, brand identification, breadth of product line, and customer service. To grow and maintain its competitive position, the Company focuses on meeting customer and consumer preferences, delivering product innovation, and maintaining long-term and lasting relationships with industry partners.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
A severe simultaneous stress event where Walmart forces deeper promotional allowances, feed costs escalate, and grocery center-store volumes contract would depress consolidated operating margin below 5.5%. Under this severe downside scenario, free cash flow would drop beneath $500M, impairing dividend distribution coverage and inducing a multiple derating toward Campbell Soup's 1.356x enterprise value to revenue multiple.
Private label gains displace branded meats at key customer channels
Commodity feed inflation and supply shocks persist across livestock networks
Operating profit remains depressed, forcing dividend growth to halt
Downside risks materialize if aggressive private label displacement and pricing concessions at Walmart combine with turkey supply disruptions to compress operating profit below cyclical trough levels. This would strain free cash flow coverage of the dividend. Disconfirmation of downside risk would occur if retail margins rebound swiftly in upcoming quarterly reports.
چگونگی شکست این تز
Severe private label displacement and promotional concessions at Walmart compress grocery operating margins.
Walmart accounts for 15.6% of net sales and retail revenue is $7,455.2M. Consolidated operating income of $718.6M was 5.94% of revenue in FY2025; margin compression below 5.5% invalidates the 8.5% recovery thesis.5,6
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
سیگنالهای هشدار اولیه برای پایش
پنج تحولی که میتواند تز سرمایهگذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Inability to sustain margins above this level proves that retail pricing concessions and elevated input costs are structural rather than cyclical, invalidating the projected operating recovery and eroding operating profit needed for capital reinvestment.
وضعیت فعلی:5.94% in FY2025
هشدار در صورتSustained below 5.50% over any trailing twelve-month period
Hormel maintains a narrow economic moat anchored by recognizable packaged protein brands and extensive temperature-controlled retail and foodservice distribution. Core grocery franchises such as SPAM and Skippy drive consistent center-store foot traffic, enabling defensive category shelf placement despite grocery retailer consolidation.
Return on invested capital of 5.97% trailed the 6.36% cost of capital in FY2025 due to cyclical protein cost inflation and turkey supply disruptions. However, normalized brand pricing power and institutional foodservice recovery support long-term economic profit stabilization.
01Brand Equity and Shelf Placement — Retail segment delivered $7,455.2M in FY2025 sales across leading shelf-stable and refrigerated meat categories.Moderate
02Distribution Scale and Institutional Reach — Direct refrigerated logistics and foodservice supply networks generated $3,941.8M in foodservice sales and $845.3M in operating cash flow.Moderate
تهدیدات شناختهشده برای خندق
تهدید
شدت
بازه زمانی
کاهش
Private label expansion and retail buyer pushback at Walmart
high
12 to 24 months
Differentiating branded product lines, expanding co-manufacturing partnerships, and growing distribution in club and discount channels.6
Commodity protein price shocks and animal health disruptions
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
§5 حساسیت
نرخ تنزیل
رشد نهایی
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.5%
$29.48
$32.86
$37.76
$45.51
$59.79
5.4%
$24.49
$26.37
$28.84
$32.24
$37.21
6.4%
$21.25
$22.43
$23.82
$25.77
$28.24
7.3%
$18.97
$19.77
$20.73
$21.89
$23.35
8.2%
$17.25
$17.83
$18.49
$19.28
$20.22
ردیفها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستونها: رشد نهایی.
تغییر مدت (سال)
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($23.82). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $532.5M after modeled capex of $281.2M, with terminal value at 69.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Operating margin normalizes gradually toward historical levels from the FY2025 trough
Retail volumes stabilize as price gaps against store brands narrow
Free cash flow expands sufficiently to fully cover dividend obligations
Gradual operating margin normalization from FY2025 trough toward historical levels supports dividend stability and steady cash flow expansion, delivering target $23.82 with probability 60.0% and return 14.4%. Disconfirmation would occur by FY2026 if operating margin fails to rebound or free cash flow remains below dividend payouts.
Foodservice institutional volume accelerates above general dining trends
Raw material feed and flock costs deflate across protein supply chains
Branded grocery franchises gain center-store volume without heavy promotions
Foodservice expansion accelerates alongside input cost deflation across turkey and pork, lifting gross margins and driving recovery beyond historical baselines. This path reaches target $38.24 with probability 20.0% and return 83.6%. Disconfirmation would appear by FY2026 if wholesale protein costs spike again or restaurant foot traffic stalls.
§7 درخت تصمیم سودEN
بیش از انتظار
Upgrade to Strong Buy; Re-examine operating margin sustainability in institutional dining and evaluate increasing portfolio allocation weight.
Accelerating profitability confirms that branded pricing realization and cost normalization are ahead of expectations, speeding progress toward Potential value $38.24.
مطابق
Maintain the rating; Maintain existing position sizing and review quarterly free cash generation relative to dividend commitments.
Steady execution keeps the business tracking toward Fair value $23.82 with upside of 14.4% from the analysis price $20.83.
کمتر از انتظار
Downgrade to Hold; Halt additional buying, reassess channel concentration exposure, and establish tight monitoring on balance sheet debt.
محرک: Operating margin compresses further due to severe retail pricing concessions or renewed input cost inflation.
Further margin deterioration weakens cash dividend coverage and delays progress toward Fair value $23.82.
کیفیت سود
Operating cash conversion remains structurally sound as cash from operations substantially exceeds reported net income, driven by working capital discipline and depreciation add-backs. Long-term cash flow quality relies on rebuilding core operating profit rather than working capital fluctuations.
Operating cash flow of $845.3M funded $310.9M in capital expenditures in FY2025, generating $534.3M in free cash flow. Because dividend distributions totaled $633.2M, the cash deficit required balance sheet cash usage while total debt stood at $2,857.4M.3,4,5
تخصیص سرمایه
Management prioritizes capital expenditures of $310.9M to sustain manufacturing efficiency alongside $633.2M in annual dividend payments, while share buybacks remain paused to maintain balance sheet flexibility.
ROIC of 5.97% trailed WACC of 6.36% in FY2025 due to cyclical margin compression, but is positioned to rebound above the cost of capital as operating margin normalizes toward 8.5%.
پل جریان نقدیچگونگی تبدیل جریان نقدی عملیاتی به جریان نقدی آزاد در FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تطبیق جریان نقد عملیاتی
سود خالص$ ۴۷۸٫۲ میلیوناستهلاک و کاهش ارزش+$ ۲۶۳٫۹ میلیونجبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام+$ ۲۵٫۶ میلیونسایر تعدیلات عملیاتی+$ ۷۷٫۶ میلیونجریان نقدی عملیاتی$ ۸۴۵٫۳ میلیون
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) trades at 13.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 10.6x compares with a peer median of 10.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: McCormick & Company Incorporated, Brown-Forman Corporation Class B, Campbell Soup Company and The J.M. Smucker Company, as of 2026-09-20.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Trough
Packaged food industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation is 1.34, while Hormel's operating margin reached a cyclical low of 5.94% in FY2025.5
چرخه صعودی
Moderating feed costs and commercial foodservice recovery lift industry operating profitability toward the peer benchmark of 10.8%.
چرخه نزولی
Elevated animal feed costs and intensified private-label grocery promotions restrict pricing realization across packaged protein categories.
روندهای بلندمدت
روند
تأثیر
یادداشت
Consumer Preference for Convenient Protein
positive
Long-term dietary demand for grab-and-go meats and ready-to-eat proteins supports brand volumes across Hormel's retail and institutional lines.
Retailer Private Label Penetration
negative
Cost-conscious shoppers migrating to store brands force brand manufacturers to increase promotional spending and protect grocery shelf share.
موقعیتیابی
Hormel maintains defensive grocery scale and leading foodservice presence, but customer concentration with Walmart requires ongoing trade promotion investments to preserve volume share.6
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
3-4%
A 3-4% allocation reflects Hormel's defensive staple profile, durable brand franchises, and five-decade dividend track record, balanced against retail channel concentration and input cost volatility.
ریسک
Cap position weight at 4% of total equity portfolio, deploy purchases systematically on dips below $21.00, and monitor Walmart sales concentration alongside quarterly free cash flow generation.
A five-decade dividend growth record supported by $845.3M in operating cash flow provides steady distributions as operating margin normalizes toward 8.5%.5
Total Return / Value
Buy
Purchasing at $20.83 on 2026-09-18 captures 14.35% upside to Fair value of $23.82, with further participation toward Potential value of $38.24 as margins recover.3
Defensive / Conservative
Buy
Essential branded protein franchises provide demand stability across economic cycles, supporting gradual accumulation at valuations prevailing on the report date.6
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
خرید
We recommend a Buy on Hormel Foods Corporation at $20.83 on 2026-09-18 with a Fair value of $23.82.3
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Center-store volume decline and packaged foods trade-down cause sustained negative top-line contraction.
Consolidated FY2025 revenue of $12,106.2M reflects low volume expansion, while peer CPB contracted -7.9%. Top-line contraction of 2% would severely impair FCFF cash generation.3
FV impact
-8.3%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Free cash flow falling beneath this floor leaves cash generation insufficient to cover annual dividend payments, forcing the company to draw on debt facilities, increase leverage, and halt five decades of uninterrupted annual dividend payout increases.
وضعیت فعلی:$534.3M in FY2025
هشدار در صورتDrops below $500.0M over a fiscal year
Expanding sales concentration paired with shrinking retail operating profit indicates Hormel is yielding pricing leverage to its largest buyer, converting brand equity into volume concessions and permanently degrading retail unit economics.
وضعیت فعلی:15.6% of net sales in FY2025
هشدار در صورتIncreases above 16.5% alongside retail margin contraction
A contraction in institutional dining sales breaks the primary engine of volume growth and incremental operating margin expansion, removing the operational buffer needed to offset mature grocery store trade-down and stagnation.
Gross margin compression below this boundary reveals that commodity protein inflation across turkey and pork cannot be passed through into wholesale or retail prices, undermining net earnings and weakening competitive standing against packaged peers.
Limitation: Terminal value is 69% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Limitation: Terminal value is 81.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.