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Intel Corporation (INTC)

NASDAQ: INTC · Real-Time Price · USD
$125
+15.30 (+14.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research

Our analysis: INTC rated Sell

INTC is rated Sell at $127.20 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $16.71, implying -86.86% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 52/100.

Fair value (mid)
$16.7 / share
$13.5 – $19.9
Upside to FV
-86.9%
from $125
Confidence
52/100
Moat
4.8/10
Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo
9-phase methodology · same model every month
Biggest opportunityBull case · highest-impact upside lever

Bull: Intel successfully achieves process parity/leadership (18A node), aggressively wins external foundry customers, and capitalizes on AI-driven compute cycles, driving revenue growth well into the double digits with operating margins expanding back toward industry averages (30%+).

Biggest riskTop kill scenario by severity
Intel 18A Parity Failure

Intel 18A Parity Failure: Process node roadmap fails to deliver density/power parity with TSMC, preventing meaningful third-party foundry volume.

Recommended actionConviction: low
Sell

INTC is rated Sell at $127.20 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $16.71, implying -86.86% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 52/100.

Position sizing playbook →
Market cap$639.3B
Revenue (ttm)53.8B
Net income (ttm)-3.2B
EPS (ttm)$-0.67
Shares out5B
P/E (forward)83.1x
Volume227,458,877
Beta2.19
Price target$65.4-47.6%
Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Intel CorporationINTC
—
Loading chart…

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm)
53.8B
Net income (ttm)
-3.2B
EPS (ttm)
$-0.67
P/E (forward)
83.1x
Market cap
$639.3B

Scenarios & expected return

Probability-weighted: -86.9% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$19.95
-84.3% from spot

Intel successfully achieves process parity/leadership (18A node), aggressively wins external foundry customers, and capitalizes on AI-driven compute cycles, driving revenue growth well into the double digits with operating margins expanding back toward industry averages (30%+).

  • 18A achieves process parity with TSMC
  • Operating margins recover to 30% long-term
  • Foundry volume scales aggressively with tier-1 wins
Base45%
Price target
$16.71
-86.9% from spot

Partial stabilization allowing revenue to grow ~10% near-term driven by a cyclical PC recovery and initial foundry wins. Margins improve but remain structurally lower (20%) than historical peaks due to execution frictions.

  • 10% near-term revenue growth driven by PC recovery
  • Long-term operating margin stabilizes at 20%
  • Capex normalizes post-investment phase at 1.25x DA
Bear30%
Price target
$13.46
-89.4% from spot

Foundry investments fail to yield competitive process nodes, continuing the market share loss to AMD and Nvidia in data center segments. Unrelenting capital burdens result in permanent value destruction, margin stagnation, and potential structural breakup.

  • Intel 18A fails to win material external volume
  • Data center share erosion to ARM and AMD continues
  • Margins stagnate below 15% persistently

Valuation models & bridge

Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $16.7.
ModelWeightFV / sharevs spotContribution
FCFF DCF64%$18.4-85.2%
Peg adjusted peer31%$9.78-92.2%
Owner earnings5%$38.1-69.5%
Reverse DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
Composite FV (weighted)100%$16.7-86.9%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Ke ↓ / g →2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
8.9%$19.1$20.6$22.4$24.4$26.9
9.9%$16.7$17.8$19.1$20.6$22.4
10.9%$14.8$15.7$16.7$17.8$19.1
11.9%$13.3$14.0$14.8$15.7$16.7
12.9%$12.1$12.7$13.3$14.0$14.8

Scorecard

Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
ValuationManagementBalanceProfitabilityRevenueRiskCompetitiveEarningsCapital
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet7.5
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat4.8
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
4.8/10
Mixed
CategoryWeightScoreReading
Valuation11%5.0
Management11%6.9
Balance Sheet11%7.5
Profitability11%1.5
Revenue Growth11%6.0
Risk Assessment11%6.0
Competitive Moat11%4.8
Earnings Quality11%3.0
Capital Efficiency11%2.5

Position sizing & entry playbook

Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 52/100
Target weight
Avoid entirely or size as a tactical short. Current price implies extreme overvaluation.
of equity sleeve
No long entry advised. Short entry viable given fundamental disconnect.
Current / pullbacks
Current price
Today’s last trade
$125
Cover shorts if concrete 18A volume orders from tier-1 hyperscalers are announced or if market price converges to fair value range.
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
  • Cover shorts if concrete 18A volume orders from tier-1 hyperscalers are announced or if market price converges to fair value range.
Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E83.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-2.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC1.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a

All INTC indicators

Market & fundamental data
Available fields
246
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 246 of 246 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

25
MetricValue
Cik
0000050863
Company name
Intel Corporation
Country
United States
Country code
US
Cusip
458140100
Employees
85,100
Employees Change
-23,800%
Employees Change Percent
-21.85
Enterprise value
$639.8B
Exchange
NASDAQ
Financial currency
USD
First seen
2026-05-09
In Index
SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry
Semiconductors
Isin
US4581401001
Last refreshed
2026-05-10
Market cap
$627.8B
Market cap category
Mega-Cap
Price
$125
Price currency
USD
Rev Per Employee
631,762.63x
Sector
Technology
Sic
3674
Symbol
INTC
Website
https://www.intel.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

12
MetricValue
Earnings Yield
-0.51%
EV Sales Forward
10.85x
EV/EBIT
318.93x
EV/EBITDA
45.14x
EV/Sales
11.9x
FCF yield
-0.5%
Forward P/E
119.08x
P/B ratio
5.63x
P/S ratio
11.68x
PE Ratio10 Y
48.12x
PEG ratio
1.69x
PS Forward
10.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

20
MetricValue
EBIT Margin
3.73%
EBITDA Margin
26.36%
Gross margin
37.2%
Gross Profit
$20B
Gross Profit Growth
0.62%
Gross Profit Growth Q
14.45%
Gross Profit Growth3 Y
-2.93%
Gross Profit Growth5 Y
-13.97%
Net Income
$-3.2B
Net Income Growth Years
1%
Pretax Margin
-3.35%
Profit Margin
-5.9%
Profit Per Employee
$-37,297
ROA
0.63
Roa5y
1.96
ROCE
1.12
ROE
-2.91
Roe5y
2.86
ROIC
1.47
Roic5y
4.59

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

21
MetricValue
Cagr10y
17.86%
Cagr15y
14.79%
Cagr1y
515.83%
Cagr20y
12.65%
Cagr3y
60.21%
Cagr5y
18.81%
Div CAGR10
-6.7%
Div CAGR3
-25.72%
Div CAGR5
-18.08%
EPS Growth Years
1
OCF Growth
-3.33%
OCF Growth Q
34.81%
OCF Growth10 Y
-6.06%
OCF Growth3 Y
8.76%
OCF Growth5 Y
-22%
Revenue Growth
1.36x
Revenue Growth Q
7.18x
Revenue Growth Quarters
1x
Revenue Growth Years
0x
Revenue Growth3 Y
-1.59x
Revenue Growth5 Y
-7.1x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

20
MetricValue
Asset Turnover
$0.27
Assets
$205.3B
Cash
$32.8B
Current Assets
$62.2B
Current Liabilities
$26.9B
Debt
$45B
Debt EBITDA
$3.13
Debt Equity
$0.36
Equity
$125B
Interest Coverage
1.9
Liabilities
$80.3B
Long Term Assets
$143.2B
Long Term Liabilities
$53.5B
Net Cash
$-11.9B
Net Cash By Market Cap
$-1.9
Net Debt EBITDA
$0.84
Net Debt Equity
$0.1
Tangible Book Value
$88.2B
Tangible Book Value Per Share
$17.56
WACC
15.32

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

6
MetricValue
Current ratio
2.31
Inventory Turnover
2.73
Net Working Capital
$4.5B
Quick ratio
1.66
Working Capital
$35.3B
Working Capital Turnover
$2.38

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

4
MetricValue
Buyback Yield
-9.52%
Dividend per share
$0
Dividend Yield
0%
Last Dividend
$0.13

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

42
MetricValue
10Y total return
417.08%
1Y total return
515.07%
200-day SMA
42.34
3Y total return
311.31%
50-day SMA
62.11
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA
50over200
5Y total return
136.7%
All Time High
130.6
All Time High Change
-4.33%
All Time High Date
2026-05-08
All Time Low
0.08
All Time Low Change
154,695.54%
All Time Low Date
1974-09-17
ATR
6.74
Beta
2.19
Beta1y
2.13
Beta2y
1.95
Ch YTD
238.5
High
130.6
High52
130.6
High52 Date
2026-05-08
High52ch
-4.33%
Low
111.8
Low52
18.97
Low52 Date
2025-08-01
Low52ch
558.69%
Ma50ch
101.11%
Premarket Change Percent
2.12
Premarket Price
$112
Premarket Volume
3,981,987
Price vs 200-day SMA
195.06%
RSI
85.07
RSI Monthly
86.66
RSI Weekly
89.98
Sharpe ratio
2.87x
Sortino ratio
5.68
Total Return
-9.52%
Tr YTD
238.5
Tr15y
691.94%
Tr1m
136.1%
Tr1w
25.4%
Tr3m
146.93%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

14
MetricValue
Analyst Count
34
Analyst Count Top
28
Analyst Price Target Top
$63.77
Analyst Ratings
Hold
Analyst Ratings Top
Hold
Earnings EPS Estimate
$-0.01
Earnings Revenue Estimate
12,400,465,904x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth
-2.1x
Operating Income
$2B
Operating Income Growth5 Y
-38.38
Operating margin
3.73
Price target
$65.44
Price Target Change
$-47.61
Price Target Change Top
$-48.95

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

11
MetricValue
Float
5,016,758,979%
Float Percent
99.82%
Net Borrowing
-5,246,000,000
Shares Insiders
0.08%
Shares Institutions
64.99%
Shares Out
5,026,000,000
Shares Qo Q
4.67%
Shares Yo Y
9.52%
Short Float
2.88%
Short Ratio
1.38
Short Shares
2.87

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

71
MetricValue
Adjusted FCF
$-5.5B
Average Volume
148,215,798.3x
Bv Per Share
22.18
CAPEX
$-13.1B
Ch10y
315.8
Ch15y
437.3
Ch1m
136.1
Ch1w
25.4
Ch1y
515.1
Ch20y
540.3
Ch3m
146.9
Ch3y
303.1
Ch5y
116.6
Ch6m
227.6
Change
13.96%
Change From Open
11.73
Close
109.6
Days Gap
2
Depreciation Amortization
12,168,000,000
Dollar Volume
28,414,162,914.8
Earnings Date
2026-04-23
Earnings Time
amc
EBIT
$2B
EBITDA
$14.2B
EPS
$-0.67
F Score
5
FCF
$-3.1B
FCF EV Yield
-0.49x
FCF Per Share
$-0.62
Financing CF
10,577,000,000
Fiscal Year End
December
Founded
1,968
Goodwill
20,465,000,000
Income Tax
$1.6B
Investing CF
-11,809,000,000
Is Primary Listing
1
Is Spac
No
Last Earnings Date
2026-04-23
Last Report Date
2026-03-28
Last Split Date
2000-07-31
Last Split Type
Forward
Last10k Filing Date
2026-01-23
Ma150
48.08
Ma150ch
159.82%
Ma20
84.37
Ma20ch
48.07%
Net CF
8,748,000,000
Next Earnings Date
2026-07-23
Open
111.8
Optionable
Yes
P OCF Ratio
62.91
Position In Range
69.9
Post Close
124.9
Postmarket Change Percent
0.86
Postmarket Price
$126
Ppne
104,458,000,000
Pre Close
109.6
Price Date
2026-05-08
Price EBITDA
$44.3
Ptbv Ratio
7.12
Relative Volume
1.53x
Revenue
53,763,000,000x
SBC By Revenue
4.41x
Share Based Comp
2,371,000,000
Tax By Revenue
2.91x
Tr20y
982.15%
Tr6m
227.62%
Us State
California
Views
1,324
Volume
227,458,877
Z Score
1.94

Deeper analysis on INTC

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
→
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
→
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
→
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
→
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
→
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
→
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
→
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
→
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
→
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
→
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
→
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
→
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
→
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
→

Frequently asked questions

About this INTC report
What is the current INTC stock rating?
Intel Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full INTC analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/INTC/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for INTC?
The latest report frames INTC around $13 to $20. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the INTC page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellINTC · Fair value $16.7-86.9% · Confidence 52/100
Read full analysis →