Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)
NASDAQ: ISRG · Real-Time Price · USD
$450
-3.45 (-0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ISRG rated Sell
Sell. Exceptional business quality is entirely overshadowed by extreme overvaluation.
Fair value (mid)
$255 / share
$176 – $337
Upside to FV
-43.4%
from $450
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Flawless execution of new product pipelines and sustained international expansion justify a premium 30x+ multiple, reaching internal valuation cross-checks expected value.
Biggest risk
Medtronic/J&J Capture 30% Market Share
Medtronic/J&J Capture 30% Market Share: Competitors successfully disrupt the monopoly, forcing severe pricing pressure on systems and instruments.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The 56% divergence from internal valuation cross-checks signals heavy market premium; intrinsic baseline valuation is $254.67.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $159.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 10.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.23 | |
| Shares out | 354.2M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 54.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 38.2x | |
| Volume | 2,402,276 | |
| Beta | 1.51 | |
| Price target | $591 | +31.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc.ISRG
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 10.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.23
- P/E (trailing)
- 54.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 38.2x
- Market cap
- $159.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $6.22B | $7.12B | $8.35B | $10.06B | +17.4% |
| Gross profit | $4.20B | $4.73B | $5.63B | $6.64B | +16.5% |
| Operating income | $1.58B | $1.77B | $2.35B | $2.95B | +23.1% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.65 | $5.03 | $6.42 | $7.87 | +29.2% |
| EBITDA | $1.94B | $2.22B | $2.85B | $3.62B | +23.1% |
| R&D | $879.0M | $998.8M | $1.15B | $1.31B | +14.3% |
| SG&A | $1.74B | $1.96B | $2.14B | $2.39B | +11.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $176
- Fair value (mid)
- $255
- Fair value (high)
- $337
- Current price
- $450
- Upside to mid
- -43.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $328 | 30% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $210 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $292 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $191 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $206 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $129 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$591
+31.4%
In the news
Latest news · ISRG
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $159.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 54.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 38.2x
- P/S
- 15.1x
- P/B
- 9.1x
- PEG
- 2.72
- EV / EBITDA
- 39.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 66.3%
- Operating margin
- 30.5%
- ROE
- 17.2%
- ROA
- 10.2%
- ROIC
- 21.4%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 4.61
- Quick ratio
- 3.26
Trading
- Beta
- 1.51
- Volume
- 2,402,276
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -27.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$336.56
-25.2% from spot
Flawless execution of new product pipelines and sustained international expansion justify a premium 30x+ multiple, reaching internal valuation cross-checks expected value.
- Accelerated Ion/SP adoption
- Sustained mid-teens revenue growth
Base60%
Price target
$254.67
-43.4% from spot
Growth naturally fades to GDP over a standard 10-year horizon, anchoring intrinsic value to a 25x multiple as maturity is reached.
- 11.7% intrinsic base growth fading over 10 years
- 25x terminal P/E
- Stable operating margins at 30%
Bear20%
Price target
$175.51
-61.0% from spot
Competitive incursions and budget constraints severely slow placements and compress the multiple to historical lows.
- Increased competition from Medtronic/J&J
- Hospital capex freezes
- Margin compression from pricing pressure
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $255.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 30% | $328 | -27.2% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $210 | -53.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $292 | -35.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $191 | -57.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $206 | -54.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $129 | -71.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $255 | -43.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $248 | $272 | $302 | $339 | $368 |
| 8.6% | $210 | $227 | $248 | $272 | $302 |
| 9.6% | $182 | $195 | $210 | $227 | $248 |
| 10.6% | $161 | $171 | $182 | $195 | $210 |
| 11.6% | $144 | $152 | $161 | $171 | $182 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.5
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
7.2/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Avoid or maintain zero weight. The current $450 price embeds a massive premium that leaves no margin of safety.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$450
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- If currently holding, aggressively trim or exit the position given the -43% downside to intrinsic value.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E38.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE17.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC21.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ISRG indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
267
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 267 of 267 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ISRG
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ISRG report
What is the current ISRG stock rating?
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ISRG analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ISRG/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ISRG?
The latest report frames ISRG around $176 to $337. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ISRG page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellISRG · Fair value $255-43.4% · Confidence 87/100