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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
KVUE — frequently asked questions
Is Kenvue Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-04, KVUE looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۱۷٫۲ versus our fair value of USD ۱۸٫۲; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۲۳٫۵. That implies roughly 5.6% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, gives KVUE a fair value of USD ۱۸٫۲ and a potential value of USD ۲۳٫۵. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Kenvue Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy KVUE now?
Our latest published rating for KVUE, analyzed 2026-10-04, is Hold. Kenvue Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۱۷٫۲ versus fair value of USD ۱۸٫۲; potential value is USD ۲۳٫۵. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for KVUE?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-04 documents Kenvue Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is KVUE's rating?
Our latest published rating for KVUE, analyzed 2026-10-04, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD ۱۸٫۲, the potential value of USD ۲۳٫۵, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۱۷٫۲).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیه‌ایHold
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$17.20
Fair value
$18.17
Potential value
$23.53
As of
2026-10-02
چرا این سناریو می‌تواند موفق باشد
Accelerated post-separation supply chain optimization and international expansion in EMEA ($3,721M) and Asia Pacific ($2,775M) could expand operating margins toward peer benchmarks near 18.0% to 20.97%, unlocking the bull casePotential value of $23.53 per share.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر می‌دهد
Top retail customer order volume declines by more than 10% or demands promotional trade discounts exceeding 300 basis points.
We rate Kenvue Inc. Hold. At $17.20, the stock trades near its Fair value of $18.17, offering modest 5.6% upside alongside a dependable dividend as essential self-care cash flows balance debt service and retail channel concentration risks.4
The house rating is Hold. For an ordinary investor, a Hold rating indicates that the shares are fairly valued relative to the company's financial fundamentals and risk profile. Investors holding the stock should maintain their existing position rather than committing fresh capital or liquidating holdings, collecting the dependable dividend while monitoring operational execution and debt reduction.
The report was prepared at a price of $17.20 per share as of October 2, 2026. The house valuation establishes a Fair value midpoint of $18.17 per share and a of $23.53 per share. The report-date price of $17.20 sits 5.3% below Fair value, offering 5.6% upside to the central estimate. If operational efficiency and international volume acceleration exceed expectations, the stock could advance toward its Potential value of $23.53, representing 36.8% upside.
The primary risk that would alter this view is customer concentration vulnerability combined with retailer margin pressure. Kenvue's largest retail partner accounts for 12% of consolidated net sales, or roughly $1,815M annually. If this customer initiates inventory destocking, reallocates shelf space to private-label goods, or demands steeper trade promotional discounts, Kenvue's operating margin could drop from 15.96% toward 13.0%. An investor would observe this through slowing North American volume growth, declining gross margins, and reduced operating cash flow available to service $8,524M in total balance-sheet debt.4,6,7
The primary driver that supports the investment case is the non-discretionary earning power of the Self Care franchise, which generated $6,378M in FY2025 sales. Essential over-the-counter healthcare products such as pain relievers and allergy treatments benefit from regular household replenishment and professional physician endorsements. This steady demand protects pricing power and gross margins above 58%. As operating cash flow of $2,197M comfortably funds modest capital spending of $475M, excess free cash flow accelerates balance-sheet deleveraging, expanding equity value per share over time.4,5,7
Non-Discretionary Self Care Brand Dominance
Kenvue's Self Care portfolio generates $6,378M in annual sales across OTC categories such as pain relief, allergy, and digestive health. Strong brand loyalty and doctor recommendations maintain inelastic consumer replenishment, supporting gross margins above 58%.5,7
With $2,197M in operating cash flow and disciplined capital spending of $475M in FY2025, Kenvue generates substantial free cash flow that reliably funds its $1,581M annual dividend while providing excess cash to pay down $8,524M in balance-sheet debt.4
Broad International Market Diversification
International operations account for 57.3% of total revenue across EMEA ($3,721M), Asia Pacific ($2,775M), and Latin America ($1,369M), shielding the company from single-region consumer weakness.7
توصیه داخلی
Hold: Kenvue's resilient self-care cash flows and dependable dividend are fairly priced at $17.20 against a Fair value of $18.17, with limited near-term multiple expansion upside given retail concentration and balance-sheet leverage.4
نمای کلی شرکت
Kenvue Inc. is a pure-play consumer health company operating globally across three reportable business segments: Self Care, Skin Health and Beauty, and Essential Health. The company markets widely recognized household brands including Tylenol, Zyrtec, Nicorette, Listerine, Aveeno, Neutrogena, Johnson's, and BAND-AID.
The Self Care segment offers products for cough, cold, allergy, pain care, digestive health, smoking cessation, and eye care. Skin Health and Beauty focuses on face and body care, hair care, and sun protection. Essential Health supplies oral care, baby care, women's health, and wound care solutions to consumers worldwide.
The company serves global consumer markets through mass merchants, supermarkets, and pharmacy retail channels, while managing operational compliance across regional consumer privacy, cybersecurity, and data protection regulatory frameworks.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
Under a comprehensive downside stress test, Kenvue experiences a simultaneous contraction across channel demand, product pricing, and capital structure. If the primary retail customer (12% of revenue) cuts inventory order volumes by 15% and demands 300 bps of incremental promotional allowances, annual revenue declines by over $270M and operating margin compresses from 15.96% down toward 13.0%. Concurrently, private label penetration across US retail ($6,460M US sales) erodes volumes in Skin Health ($4,114M) and Essential Health ($4,632M). On the balance sheet, refinancing $2,750M of upcoming debt maturities at yields exceeding the pre-tax cost of debt of 6.06% increases annual interest expense by $40M to $60M, reducing net cash flow available for dividends ($1,581M paid in FY2025). In this scenario, equity value re-rates to the bear-case floor of $13.49, representing a 21.6% decline from the analysis price of $17.20.
Mass retail partner inventory destocking and aggressive trade allowance demands
Private-label encroachment eroding market share in skin health and personal care
Elevated interest expense on scheduled debt maturity refinancing
Constrained pricing power and margin compression across domestic distribution channels
The downside outcome materializes if primary retail partners execute inventory destocking while private-label substitutes gain market share across personal care categories. Stiffer competition limits pricing power, while higher refinancing rates on upcoming debt maturities increase interest burdens, depressing net operating margins and constraining capital allocation flexibility.
چگونگی شکست این تز
Top Retail Customer Destocking and Margin Squeeze
Kenvue's largest customer accounts for 12% of consolidated net sales ($1,815M of $15,124M total net sales in FY2025). Customer inventory destocking combined with aggressive demands for trade promotional discounts compresses operating margins from 15.96% down below 13.0%, impairing operating income.6,7
FV impact
-4%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Destocking or heavy trade promotional concessions by mass retail partners severely compressing operating income
وضعیت فعلی:15.96% in FY2025
هشدار در صورت< 13.00%
02
§3 خندق رقابتیEN
Narrow
Kenvue commands a narrow economic moat underpinned by durable intangible brand assets and entrenched retail distribution networks across consumer health. As the former consumer healthcare division of Johnson & Johnson, Kenvue holds premier global brand leadership across Self Care ($6,378M net sales in FY2025), Essential Health ($4,632M), and Skin Health and Beauty ($4,114M). These essential healthcare categories benefit from inelastic consumer demand, high household replenishment frequency, and strong physician and healthcare professional recommendations that insulate market share from cyclical economic downturns.
The company's distribution scale provides significant shelf-space advantages across multinational mass-market and pharmacy channels. In FY2025, Kenvue generated $15,124M in consolidated revenue, supported by substantial geographic diversification spanning North America ($7,259M), EMEA ($3,721M), Asia Pacific ($2,775M), and Latin America ($1,369M). While a single key customer accounts for 12% of total net sales, this stable channel alignment reflects high retail foot-traffic reliance on Kenvue's category-leading brands, preserving retail shelf dominance even as private label products expand.
However, the moat remains narrow rather than wide due to intense competition from large-scale consumer packaged goods peers such as Colgate-Palmolive (operating margin of 20.97%) and Procter & Gamble (operating margin of 22.09%), as well as growing private-label alternatives in skin health and personal hygiene. Furthermore, mass merchant buyer power constrains pricing realization and necessitates ongoing promotional allowances, bounding operating margin expansion at 16.0% to 17.0% relative to peer median profitability.
سود اقتصادی
Kenvue generates economic profits that exceed its cost of capital, supporting a narrow moat assessment. The company's ROIC of 10.70% comfortably exceeds its computed WACC of 7.1885% and computed moderate cost of equity of 7.8888%. While ROIC is constrained by $9,509M in goodwill and $19,156M in invested capital following the corporate separation from Johnson & Johnson, steady operating cash flows of $2,197M in FY2025 validate sustained cash generation above capital costs.2
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Intangible Brand Assets and Healthcare Professional Recommendations — Kenvue's iconic OTC healthcare portfolio generated $6,378M in Self Care and $4,632M in Essential Health in FY2025, driving gross margin stability above 58% as demonstrated by Q2 2026 cost of revenue of $1,654M on $3,955M revenue.Wide
02Global Distribution Scale and Retail Shelf Integration — Consolidated sales of $15,124M across North America ($7,259M), EMEA ($3,721M), and APAC ($2,775M), alongside a durable 12% revenue partnership with its primary retail customer, create an entrenched omnichannel footprint that makes Kenvue essential to retailer foot traffic.
تهدیدات شناخته‌شده برای خندق
تهدید
شدت
بازه زمانی
کاهش
Private label substitution and peer promotional competition in Skin Health and Essential Health
medium
12-24 months
Continued R&D investment ($382M in FY2025), clinical validation, and healthcare professional recommendations defend consumer loyalty and support gross margins above 58%.
Retail channel concentration and mass merchant promotional allowance demands
ردیف‌ها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستون‌ها: رشد نهایی.
ارزش منصفانه
تغییر مدت (سال)
−۵
−۲
۰
+۲
+۵
ارزش منصفانه
$۱۸٫۰۷
$۱۸٫۱۲
$۱۸٫۱۷
$۱۸٫۲۱
$۱۸٫۲۸
مدت مزیت رقابتی در حالت پایهٔ مشخص‌شده: 5 سال. سایر فرض‌ها ثابت می‌مانند.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($18.17). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.5B after modeled reinvestment of $337.9M, with terminal value at 78.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Stable revenue growth driven by steady consumer replenishment in essential health categories
Operating margins normalizing gradually with post-separation supply chain efficiencies
Steady retail shelf space allocation with primary distribution partners
Modest capital expenditure supporting disciplined debt service and dividend continuity
The base outcome assumes steady consumer replenishment in non-discretionary over-the-counter healthcare categories, maintaining predictable top-line progression and stable operating margins. Steady channel execution preserves shelf placement across mass retail partners while cash generation covers regular dividends and scheduled debt maturities. This modal path projects a target of $18.17 with an estimated probability of 55.0%, delivering an implied return of 5.6% against $17.20 (as of 2026-10-02).
Accelerated organic revenue growth across Self Care and Skin Health
Operating margin expansion toward leading consumer staples peer benchmarks
§7 درخت تصمیم سودEN
بیش از انتظار
Upgrade the rating; Examine organic volume trajectory across international markets, verify sustained gross margin durability, and assess capacity for accelerated debt paydown relative to the capital return program.
محرک: Consolidated revenue growth accelerating with Self Care organic expansion and operating margin expanding toward peer benchmark levels
Revenue outperformance driven by Self Care volume resilience and operating margin expansion toward peer levels would confirm accelerating post-separation efficiency gains, expanding free cash flow and justifying a rating upgrade.
مطابق
Maintain Hold; Maintain position sizing, monitor quarterly cash conversion rates, track top retail partner order patterns, and evaluate progress on upcoming debt maturity refinancing.
محرک: Revenue and diluted earnings tracking in line with consensus projections alongside stable operating margins
Financial results matching expectations demonstrate predictable demand across core consumer health franchises, maintaining fair value alignment near $18.17 without altering the risk-reward balance.
کمتر از انتظار
Downgrade the rating; Re-evaluate exposure to mass retail channels, review liquidity reserves against debt service obligations, and scrutinize consumer elasticity across discretionary skin health lines.
محرک: Organic revenue contraction in core segments and operating margin compression below historical baseline levels
Top-line contraction resulting from retail inventory destocking or private label market share losses would degrade operating leverage, threatening dividend coverage and prompting a rating downgrade.
کیفیت سود
Earnings quality is supported by dependable cash generation, where operating cash flow substantially exceeds reported net income. Working capital requirements remain disciplined, and capital expenditures represent a modest fraction of sales, reflecting steady-state maintenance needs. Reported operating margins demonstrate recovery following initial separation costs, with minimal reliance on non-operating items or aggressive revenue recognition practices.
روند برآوردها
Consensus earnings and revenue estimates have remained steady following the recent quarterly earnings release, reflecting consistent operational delivery and well-anchored expectations across core self-care and essential health categories.
معیارهای مهم پیش از انتشار
01
معیار:
Self Care Organic Growth and Over-the-Counter Volume Trends
فعلیDemonstrating steady demand across essential healthcare categories, supported by physician recommendations and consistent household replenishment.
چرا مهم است
Self Care represents the largest share of revenue, so sustained organic volume growth protects pricing power, generates predictable cash flow, and preserves market share against competitive consumer staples.
Kenvue's cash generation is a foundational pillar of its investment profile. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $2,197M provided robust 4.6x coverage of capital expenditures ($475M), producing $1,722M in free cash flow. This represents a substantial recovery from FY2024 ($1,335M FCF), driven by working capital stabilization and operating profit expansion. In Q2 2026, cost of revenue was $1,654M on revenue of $3,955M, maintaining gross margin resilience above 58%. The house forecast projects free cash flow to the firm of $1,539M in FY2026, rising to $1,823M by FY2030, supported by disciplined reinvestment rates between 15% and 18% of NOPAT.5
ROIC recovered in FY2025 following corporate separation friction in FY2024, supported by operating income recovering to $2,414M on $15,124M revenue. Invested capital of $19,156M reflects substantial goodwill ($9,509M) from the J&J carve-out. Given steady-state capital expenditures ($475M in FY2025) and disciplined working capital, ROIC is projected to remain stable between 10.5% and 11.5% as operating margins normalize toward 16.5%–17.0%.
Kenvue's current ROIC of 10.70% comfortably exceeds its computed WACC of 7.1885% and moderate of 7.8888%, generating an economic spread of approximately +351 bps over WACC.
آخرین درآمد$ ۱۵٫۱ میلیاردنرخ رشد مرکب سالانه درآمد +۰٫۸٪
حاشیه سود عملیاتی۱۶٫۰٪8 دوره مالی
آخرین جریان نقد آزاد$ ۱٫۷ میلیاردFY2025
بدهی خالص$ ۷٫۵ میلیاردFY2025
تفکیک صورت سود و زیانچگونگی تبدیل مقیاس کسب‌وکار به سود گزارش‌شده.۷ تیر ۱۴۰۵
StockMarketAgent.AI
درآمد$ ۴ میلیاردبهای تمام‌شده درآمد−$ ۱٫۷ میلیاردسود ناخالص$ ۲٫۳ میلیاردهزینههای عملیاتی−$ ۱٫۶ میلیاردسود عملیاتی$ ۶۹۹ میلیوناقلام غیرعملیاتی و مالیات−$ ۲۴۳ میلیونسود خالص$ ۴۵۶ میلیون
داده‌های تاریخچه مالی
درآمد
$۳٬۹۵۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
بهای تمام‌شده درآمد
$۱٬۶۵۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
سود ناخالص
$۲٬۳۰۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
هزینه‌های عملیاتی
$۱٬۶۰۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
سود عملیاتی
$۶۹۹٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
اقلام غیرعملیاتی و مالیات
−$۲۴۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
سود خالص
$۴۵۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰
نمای کلی ترازنامهنحوه نگهداری و تأمین مالی دارایی‌های گزارش‌شده در دوره انتخابی.
Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) trades at 14.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.6x compares with a peer median of 14.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Estee Lauder Companies Inc., Colgate-Palmolive Company, The Procter & Gamble Company and Kimberly-Clark Corporation, as of 2026-10-04.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Contraction
Industry benchmark capital intensity reflects a mature, capital-disciplined operating environment, with industry capex-to-revenue of 1.1% (0.011) and capex-to-depreciation of 1.07. Kenvue's own capital expenditure of $475M in FY2025 represents 3.14% of revenue ($15,124M) and 0.85x of depreciation ($557M), confirming a steady-state reinvestment profile focused on maintenance rather than capacity expansion.6
چرخه صعودی
In an industry upcycle, consumer healthcare spending expands across OTC self-care and dermatological skin health, driven by household demand for clinical wellness products and demographic aging. Brand differentiation allows leading manufacturers to achieve pricing realization above inflation (2.0% to 3.5%) while maintaining volume growth. Retail partners expand shelf space allocations for premium personal care brands, and operating margins expand toward high-efficiency peer benchmarks such as Colgate-Palmolive (20.97% operating margin) and Procter & Gamble (22.09%).
چرخه نزولی
In an industry downcycle, consumer spending pressures lead to widespread trade-down from branded OTC healthcare and personal care toward mass retailer private-label alternatives. Mass retail channels engage in aggressive inventory destocking, reduce safety stock levels, and demand higher promotional trade allowances to stimulate store foot traffic. Operating margins across consumer staples contract as input cost inflation cannot be fully passed through, while category growth stagnates below 1.0% YoY.
روندهای بلندمدت
روند
تأثیر
یادداشت
Aging Demographics and Preventative Self-Care Expansion
positive
Global population aging and expanding consumer adoption of preventative self-care create steady structural volume replenishment across OTC analgesics, digestive health, and allergy categories, supporting Self Care ($6,378M).
Private-Label and Store-Brand Penetration in Mass Retail
negative
Retailers continue expanding high-quality private-label alternatives in commoditized personal hygiene and beauty lines, increasing competitive friction and promotional requirements in Skin Health ($4,114M) and Essential Health ($4,632M).
موقعیت‌یابی
Kenvue is positioned as a defensive, dividend-paying market leader in consumer healthcare. Its portfolio concentration in non-discretionary Self Care ($6,378M, 42.17% of FY2025 net sales) provides higher demand resilience than pure-play cosmetics or consumer packaged goods companies. However, Kenvue's operating margin of 15.96% lags top-tier peers like Colgate-Palmolive (20.97%) and Procter & Gamble (22.09%), indicating operational opportunity for post-separation cost rationalization alongside exposure to mass retailer promotional demands.3,7
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
2-3%
Given the Hold rating, balanced risk-reward profile, and defensive dividend archetype, a 2-3% position weight in a diversified income portfolio is recommended for existing holders. Fresh capital deployment is not recommended until shares trade at a wider discount to Fair value ($18.17) or margin expansion accelerates.
ریسک
Risk management focuses on monitoring retail channel health, private-label market share shifts, and debt maturity refinancing. Position size is capped at 3% of total portfolio value given the $8,524M debt load and customer concentration (12% of revenue). Quarterly checkpoints ensure immediate reassessment if operating margins breach 14.5% or top-customer alignment deteriorates below 9.0%.
Kenvue delivers an attractive, dependable dividend backed by $2,197M in operating cash flow and modest maintenance capex of $475M, but high debt of $8,524M limits near-term dividend growth.4
Value / Fundamental Investor
Hold
The stock trades at $17.20, roughly in line with our Fair value of $18.17 (5.6% upside) and forward P/E of 14.73x. Without a wider discount to fair value or visible margin expansion toward peers like Colgate-Palmolive (20.97% margin), risk-reward remains neutral.3,4
Growth Investor
Avoid
Projected revenue growth of 2.4% to 3.1% in FY2026-FY2027 reflects mature consumer staple dynamics rather than high growth, lagging peer leaders and offering limited organic top-line catalyst.1
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
نگهداری
Maintain existing equity holdings in Kenvue Inc. at the report-date price of $17.20. The stock trades at a modest 5.3% discount to our central Fair value of $18.17, offering 5.6% upside alongside a solid dividend yield. Inelastic demand across core Self Care brands ($6,378M revenue) supports operating cash generation of $2,197M, but elevated leverage ($8,524M debt) and channel concentration (12% top customer) warrant a balanced posture.4,7
Investors should collect the regular dividend while observing management's execution on post-separation supply chain efficiencies and upcoming debt refinancing. We recommend holding the position and reassessing if operational margin expansion accelerates toward high-performing peer benchmarks or if retailer destocking pressures materialize.
§15یادداشتهای شما
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یادداشتهای خصوصی
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۰ نویسه
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-04 · Published 2026-10-04 · Provider-adjusted · cited for ۲ figuresCited in دیدگاههای سرمایهگذاران
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Kenvue carries $8,524M in total debt against $1,062M in cash. With upcoming debt maturities of $750M in Year 1 and $1,000M in Year 3, higher refinancing rates push pre-tax cost of debt above 6.06% and elevate WACC by +200 bps over computed WACC of 7.1885%.2,4,6
FV impact
-22.1%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Private Label Encroachment and Multiple Derating
In Skin Health ($4,114M revenue) and Essential Health ($4,632M), private label expansion erodes brand pricing power. The market derates Kenvue's exit P/E toward low-growth peer Kimberly-Clark (12.64x forward P/E), cutting the assumed 16.5x terminal multiple by 20% to below 13.2x.4,7
Persistent foreign exchange drag and emerging market demand contraction impairing international operating momentum
وضعیت فعلی:57.29% of net sales ($8,664M across EMEA, APAC, and LATAM in FY2025)
هشدار در صورت< -3.00% YoY over full fiscal year
Moderate
medium
12-18 months
Category co-management, high SKU inventory turn rates, and category foot-traffic generation across essential OTC segments preserve bargaining power with the 12% revenue customer.7
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($۳٫۵۸) plus discounted terminal value ($۱۲٫۸۰) minus signed per current share ($۳٫۸۸) equals the $۱۲٫۴۹ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the bull outcome, brand reinvestment and strong clinical positioning accelerate organic revenue expansion across Self Care and international territories. Operating efficiencies expand operating margins toward peer benchmark levels, unlocking superior cash generation. At a target value of $23.53 carrying an estimated probability of 20.0%, this path offers an implied return of 36.8% relative to $17.20 (as of 2026-10-02).
معیار:
Primary Retail Customer Channel Stability
فعلیRevenue alignment with the largest retail customer has remained steady across recent fiscal years without channel disruption.
چرا مهم است
Channel alignment with the primary mass retail customer drives volume distribution, so any shift in inventory stocking policy directly alters operational overhead and net sales.
فعلیOperating profitability has recovered following post-separation transition costs, reflecting manufacturing efficiency and disciplined promotional spending.
چرا مهم است
Margin progress reveals whether standalone supply-chain separation initiatives are yielding operational leverage, directly influencing net operating profit after tax and reinvestment capacity.
فعلیBroad geographic distribution provides balanced revenue contributions across international territories alongside domestic North American operations.
چرا مهم است
International sales buffer regional economic softness, meaning sustained expansion across EMEA, APAC, and Latin America hedges domestic retail dependency and drives top-line durability.
05
معیار:
Free Cash Flow Generation and Balance Sheet Deleveraging
فعلیOperating cash flows exceed capital requirements, providing coverage for ongoing dividend distributions while supporting scheduled debt retirement.
چرا مهم است
Cash flow generation dictates capacity to service upcoming debt maturities and maintain regular dividend payments without escalating borrowing costs.
Capital allocation is heavily oriented toward shareholder dividends, reflecting Kenvue's mature dividend archetype. In FY2025, the company distributed $1,581M in common dividends, representing a payout ratio of 107.6% of GAAP net income ($1,470M) and 91.8% of free cash flow ($1,722M). Share repurchases were modest at $197M, roughly offsetting stock-based compensationdilution ($136M). Total debt of $8,524M and interest expense of $379M constrain aggressive capital return expansion. Management's capital priority remains maintaining the dividend, investing maintenance capex (3.14% of revenue), and directing excess cash toward debt paydown to lower leverage before expanding buybacks.
Confirms that post-separation stranded overhead is subsiding, supporting house forecast projections of operating margins expanding to 16.2% in FY2026 and 17.0% by FY2029 without relying on unrealistic pricing acceleration.
Strong cash generation easily covers annual dividend payments ($1,581M paid in FY2025), leaving approximately $140M in discretionary free cash flow for debt retirement and modest buybacks ($197M in FY2025).
Debt Maturity Schedule and Refinancing Sensitivity
Kenvue carries $8,524M in total debt and $1,062M in cash ($7,462M net debt), with $750M due in year 1, $1,000M in year 3, and $1,000M in year 5 at pre-tax cost of debt of 6.06%.
Refinancing $2,750M of debt maturities under higher prevailing interest rates elevates interest expense above trailing $379M, capping capital return acceleration and reinforcing the Hold rating.
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG
قیمت / ارزش منصفانه
ارزش منصفانه$۱۲۶٫۴۷Report-date price$۱۴۵٫۵۸
تاریخ ارزیابی
مزیت رقابتیNarrow
کارت امتیاز سرمایه‌گذاری۵۶ / 100
Kimberly-Clark CorporationKMB
قیمت / ارزش منصفانه
ارزش منصفانه$۱۲۱٫۷۶Report-date price$۹۴٫۳۶
تاریخ ارزیابی
مزیت رقابتیNarrow
کارت امتیاز سرمایه‌گذاری۵۸ / 100
حاشیه سود
KVUE
Kenvue Inc.
$33.0B
14.7x
2.1x
11.6x
15.6%
—
EL
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
$33.3B
23.5x
2.2x
15.9x
4.7%
7.0%
CL
Colgate-Palmolive Company
$67.2B
20.5x
3.2x
14.8x
267.4%
21.0%
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
$336.8B
19.6x
3.9x
14.7x
30.3%
22.1%
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
$31.3B
12.6x
1.9x
10.7x
104.9%
19.0%
Mass Merchant Channel Integration and Omnichannel Healthcare Distribution
neutral
Consolidation of mass retail and pharmacy channels entrenches leading suppliers with massive retail shelf presence (such as Kenvue's 12% revenue customer), but also consolidates buyer purchasing power and restricts unconstrained pricing realization.
