تحلیل اختیاری محصول
با اجازه شما، از تحلیلهای محدود و حریمخصوصیمحور استفاده میکنیم تا مسیرهای پژوهشی مؤثر را بشناسیم. از ردیاب تبلیغاتی یا بازپخش نشست استفاده نمیکنیم. این انتخاب را میتوانید در تنظیمات تغییر دهید. بخوانید سیاست حفظ حریم خصوصی.
Duopoly structure provides a high floor, but upside is fully priced in.
Current pricing aggressively discounts a V-shaped housing recovery.
Lowe's operates within a highly consolidated home improvement retail duopoly. While near-term performance is pressured by high interest rates and lower housing turnover, the company boasts robust cash flow generation, a mature dividend policy, and structural long-term tailwinds from an aging U.S. housing stock. Continued focus on capturing Pro market share and optimizing operational margins presents moderate upside.
Lowe's operates within a highly consolidated home improvement retail duopoly. While near-term performance is pressured by high interest rates and lower housing turnover, the company boasts robust cash flow generation, a mature dividend policy, and structural long-term tailwinds from an aging U.S. housing stock. Continued focus on capturing Pro market share and optimizing operational margins presents moderate upside.
Duopoly structure with Home Depot effectively locking out new entrants.
Massive national footprint providing distinct economies of scale.
Current pricing aggressively discounts a V-shaped housing recovery.
Reduce. Robust underlying cash generation is overshadowed by severe accounting quality red flags and a premium valuation that ignores ongoing macroeconomic constraints.
Lowe's Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and Canada. It provides a line of products for construction, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating. The company also offers home improvement products, such as appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, lumber, lawn and garden, kitchens and bath, hardware, building materials, millwork, paint, rough plumbing, tools, electrical, flooring, and décor. In addition, it provides installation services through independent contractors in various product categories; and extended protection plans and repair services. Further, the company provides design, distribution, and installation services for interior surface finishes to home builders and property managers. It sells its national brand-name merchandise and private brand products to professional customers, individual homeowners, and renters. The company serves its products through Lowes.com website, mobile applications, retail home improvement stores and outlet stores, and its branches. Lowe's Companies, Inc. was founded in 1921 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.
Prolonged high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures suppress consumer discretionary spending for an extended period. Lowe's struggles to gain meaningful traction in the Pro segment, leading to sustained flat or negative revenue growth and compressed margins.
Prolonged high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures suppress consumer discretionary spending for an extended period. Lowe's struggles to gain meaningful traction in the Pro segment, leading to sustained flat or negative revenue growth and compressed margins.
Mortgage rates remain structurally elevated above 7%, completely freezing existing home sales and eliminating big-ticket remodeling demand.
Aggressive promotional pricing from Home Depot crushes Lowe's nascent Pro market penetration, collapsing operating margins below historical 10% averages.
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Persistent revenue declines indicate that frozen existing home sales and discretionary consumer cutbacks are halting customer project activity, eliminating top-line expansion and exposing the business to fixed cost deleveraging across the retail store network.
وضعیت فعلی:Revenue growth was 3.1% for the period ended 2026-01-31.
هشدار در صورت< 0.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Duopoly structure with Home Depot effectively locking out new entrants.
Massive national footprint providing distinct economies of scale.
Significant supplier bargaining power and localized distribution networks.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Unavailable
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $7.9B after capex $2.2B, with terminal value at 62.2% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
A faster-than-expected normalization of interest rates revitalizes existing home sales and large-ticket DIY projects. Lowe's localized Pro fulfillment strategies and digital supply chain investments yield accelerated market share gains against Home Depot, driving durable operating margin expansion above 12%.
If Pro sales outpace DIY, expect margin resilience and a potential re-rating. If large-ticket DIY collapses further, expect downward EPS revisions and multiple compression.
If Pro sales outpace DIY, expect margin resilience and a potential re-rating. If large-ticket DIY collapses further, expect downward EPS revisions and multiple compression.
If Pro sales outpace DIY, expect margin resilience and a potential re-rating. If large-ticket DIY collapses further, expect downward EPS revisions and multiple compression.
If Pro sales outpace DIY, expect margin resilience and a potential re-rating. If large-ticket DIY collapses further, expect downward EPS revisions and multiple compression.
Warning level: < 0.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Persistent revenue declines indicate that frozen existing home sales and discretionary consumer cutbacks are halting customer project activity, eliminating top-line expansion and exposing the business to fixed cost deleveraging across the retail store network.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| درآمد | ۸۶٬۲۸۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| بهای تمام‌شده درآمد | ۵۷٬۴۰۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود ناخالص | ۲۸٬۸۸۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| هزینه‌های عملیاتی | ۱۸٬۷۳۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود عملیاتی | ۱۰٬۱۵۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| اقلام غیرعملیاتی و مالیات | −۳٬۴۹۹٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود خالص | ۶٬۶۵۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| کل دارایی‌ها | ۵۴٬۱۴۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| وجه نقد | ۹۸۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| دارایی‌های جاری | ۲۰٬۹۵۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| کل بدهی‌ها | ۶۴٬۰۶۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| بدهی‌های جاری | ۱۹٬۴۶۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| کسری حقوق صاحبان سهام | ۹٬۹۱۷٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
داده‌های مالی مقطعی استفاده‌شده در تحلیل 2026-05-10.
| دوره | درآمد | EBITDA | سود خالص | جریان نقدی عملیاتی | جریان نقدی آزاد | مخارج سرمایه‌ای | استهلاک و کاهش ارزش | جبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام | بازخرید سهام | سود سهام پرداخت‌شده | خالص انتشار بدهی | جریان نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | جریان نقد تأمین مالی | نقد ابتدای دوره | نقد پایان دوره | وجه نقد و سرمایه‌گذاری‌ها | کل بدهی | حاشیه عملیاتی | ROIC | WACC | شکاف ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | ۹۶٫۳ میلیارد | ۱۴ میلیارد | ۸٫۴ میلیارد | ۱۰٫۱ میلیارد | ۸٫۳ میلیارد | ۱٫۹ میلیارد | ۱٫۹ میلیارد | ۲۳۰ میلیون | ۱۳ میلیارد | ۲ میلیارد | ۲٫۹ میلیارد | — | — | — | — | ۱٫۱ میلیارد | ۲۹٫۴ میلیارد | ۱۲٫۶٪ | — | ۶٫۷٪ | — |
| 2023-01-31 | ۹۷٫۱ میلیارد | ۱۲٫۲ میلیارد | ۶٫۴ میلیارد | ۸٫۶ میلیارد | ۶٫۸ میلیارد | ۱٫۸ میلیارد | ۲ میلیارد | ۲۲۳ میلیون | ۱۴٫۱ میلیارد | ۲٫۴ میلیارد | ۹٫۳ میلیارد | — | — | — | — | ۱٫۳ میلیارد | ۳۸ میلیارد | ۱۰٫۵٪ | — | ۷٫۷٪ | — |
| 2024-01-31 | ۸۶٫۴ میلیارد | ۱۳٫۶ میلیارد | ۷٫۷ میلیارد | ۸٫۱ میلیارد | ۶٫۲ میلیارد | ۲ میلیارد | ۱٫۹ میلیارد | ۲۱۰ میلیون | ۶٫۱ میلیارد | ۲٫۵ میلیارد | ۱٫۹ میلیارد | — | — | — | — | ۹۲۱ میلیون | ۴۰٫۱ میلیارد | ۱۳٫۴٪ | — | ۸٫۱٪ | — |
| 2025-01-31 | ۸۳٫۷ میلیارد | ۱۲٫۶ میلیارد | ۷ میلیارد | ۹٫۶ میلیارد | ۷٫۷ میلیارد | ۱٫۹ میلیارد | ۲ میلیارد | ۲۲۱ میلیون | ۴٫۱ میلیارد | ۲٫۶ میلیارد | −۵۴۵ میلیون | — | — | — | — | ۱٫۸ میلیارد | ۳۹٫۷ میلیارد | ۱۲٫۵٪ | — | ۸٫۸٪ | — |
| 2026-01-31 | ۸۶٫۳ میلیارد | ۱۲٫۵ میلیارد | ۶٫۷ میلیارد | ۹٫۹ میلیارد | ۷٫۷ میلیارد | ۲٫۲ میلیارد | ۲٫۲ میلیارد | ۲۴۷ میلیون | ۲۱۱ میلیون | ۲٫۶ میلیارد | ۴٫۴ میلیارد | — | — | — | — | ۹۸۲ میلیون | ۴۴٫۷ میلیارد | ۱۱٫۸٪ | — | — | — |
LOW trades at 16.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.1x; EV/EBITDA of 13.9x against a peer median of 19.4x; 6 peers.
Mature phase; capital allocation heavily biases shareholder returns via aggressive share repurchases over greenfield expansion.
An aging US housing stock mandates unavoidable maintenance, providing a durable floor for recurring repair revenues.
High mortgage lock-in rates suppress housing turnover, delaying large-scale remodeling projects.
Mature phase; capital allocation heavily biases shareholder returns via aggressive share repurchases over greenfield expansion.
Maintain underweight or strict benchmark weighting.
Liquidate on sustained degradation in operating cash flow conversion, evidence of accounting restatements, or failure to defend the 11.8% operating margin floor.
Current pricing aggressively discounts a V-shaped housing recovery.
Cash flow profile is robust, but reported earnings quality is highly suspect.
Reduce. Lowe's boasts robust cash flow generation and undeniable duopoly advantages, but currently trades at a 10% premium to our $206.63 fair value midpoint. Wait for a wider margin of safety.
Upside case: Duopoly structure provides a high floor, but upside is fully priced in. Downside case: Current pricing aggressively discounts a V-shaped housing recovery.
تز سرمایه‌گذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
Severe accounting quality concerns materialize into an earnings restatement or significant future write-downs, validating accrual distortions.
A breakdown in operating profitability demonstrates that promotional discounting and wage inflation are overpowering productivity initiatives, severely eroding core operating leverage and shrinking cash flows available for capital returns.
وضعیت فعلی:Operating margin was 11.8% for the period ended 2026-01-31.
هشدار در صورت< 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Intense price competition against primary competitors forces severe promotional markdowns and higher supply chain costs, weakening merchandise margin resilience and validating market share losses within high-margin core home improvement categories.
وضعیت فعلی:Gross margin was 33.5% for the period ended 2026-01-31.
هشدار در صورت< 31.0% over any fiscal year
Sharp declines in return on capital indicate that retail reinvestment, supply chain modernizations, and store productivity programs are failing to yield expected operating efficiencies, destroying shareholder value creation and crimping total capital returns.
وضعیت فعلی:ROIC was 23.4% as of the report's 2026-05-10 analysis date.
هشدار در صورت< 18.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Inability to convert accounting earnings into operating liquidity highlights aggressive inventory accumulation or delayed vendor collections, restricting free cash generation needed to service debt obligations and sustain opportunistic share repurchases.
وضعیت فعلی:Operating cash flow to net income was 1.482 as of the report's 2026-05-10 analysis date.
هشدار در صورت< 1.00x over any trailing twelve-month period
| Monitor |
| Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
| Input cost inflation and supply chain volatility. | medium | Monitor | Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Housing turnover remains muted due to elevated rates, offset by baseline repair-and-maintenance demand. Operating margins stabilize at 11.8%. Strong free cash flow bypasses accounting accrual noise, driving a $206.63 intrinsic value anchored predominantly by FCFF.
Warning level: < 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. A breakdown in operating profitability demonstrates that promotional discounting and wage inflation are overpowering productivity initiatives, severely eroding core operating leverage and shrinking cash flows available for capital returns.
Warning level: < 31.0% over any fiscal year. Intense price competition against primary competitors forces severe promotional markdowns and higher supply chain costs, weakening merchandise margin resilience and validating market share losses within high-margin core home improvement categories.
Warning level: < 18.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Sharp declines in return on capital indicate that retail reinvestment, supply chain modernizations, and store productivity programs are failing to yield expected operating efficiencies, destroying shareholder value creation and crimping total capital returns.
Warning level: < 1.00x over any trailing twelve-month period. Inability to convert accounting earnings into operating liquidity highlights aggressive inventory accumulation or delayed vendor collections, restricting free cash generation needed to service debt obligations and sustain opportunistic share repurchases.
| حاشیه سود |
|---|
| LOW | Lowe's Companies Inc. | $128.4B | 16.8x | 1.5x | 13.9x | — | — |
| HD | The Home Depot Inc. | 19.5x | 1.9x | 15.2x | 145.5% | 10.1% | |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 27.6x | 3.9x | 19.4x | 24.3% | 13.1% | |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc. | 169.0x | 16.4x | 142.5x | 4.9% | 4.2% | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 19.4x | 7.1x | 16.8x | — | 44.3% | |
| TJX | The TJX Companies Inc. | 27.1x | 2.8x | 21.0x | 59.1% | 13.3% |
