PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
NASDAQ: PCAR · Real-Time Price · USD
$114
+0.26 (+0.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PCAR rated Reduce
PCAR is rated Reduce at $111.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $90.52, implying -18.72% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$90.5 / share
$63.4 – $125
Upside to FV
-18.7%
from $114
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Current market pricing implies a 6.02% perpetual growth rate, sharply conflicting with our structurally conservative 4.12% baseline.
Biggest risk
Prolonged Freight Trough
Our $90.52 weighted fair value aggressively normalizes peak 2023 margins down to a sustainable 10.5%.
Recommended action
Reduce
PCAR is rated Reduce at $111.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $90.52, implying -18.72% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $58.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 27.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $4.70 | |
| Shares out | 526.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 24.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 16.4x | |
| Dividend | $2.72 (2.38%) | |
| Volume | 2,028,857 | |
| Beta | 1.03 | |
| Price target | $118 | +2.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 27.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $4.70
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.4x
- Market cap
- $58.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $23.52B | $28.82B | $35.13B | $33.66B | $28.44B | +4.9% |
| Gross profit | $4.28B | $5.23B | $7.73B | $6.71B | $4.74B | +2.6% |
| Operating income | $2.31B | $3.68B | $5.95B | $4.89B | $2.96B | +6.4% |
| Net income | $1.87B | $3.01B | $4.60B | $4.16B | $2.38B | +6.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.55 | $5.75 | $8.76 | $7.90 | $4.51 | +6.2% |
| EBITDA | $3.28B | $4.47B | $6.87B | $5.81B | $3.79B | +3.7% |
| R&D | $324.1M | $341.2M | $410.9M | $452.9M | $445.5M | +8.3% |
| SG&A | $676.8M | $726.3M | $753.3M | $744.0M | $735.8M | +2.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $63.4
- Fair value (mid)
- $90.5
- Fair value (high)
- $125
- Current price
- $114
- Upside to mid
- -18.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $81.86 | 55% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $88.54 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $145 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $108 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $36.04 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $24.08 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$118
+2.8%
In the news
Latest news · PCAR
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $58.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.4x
- P/S
- 2.2x
- P/B
- 3.0x
- PEG
- 1.02
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 13.6%
- Operating margin
- 10.3%
- ROE
- 13.1%
- ROA
- 4.1%
- ROIC
- 8.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.76
- Current ratio
- 5.56
- Quick ratio
- 4.96
Trading
- Beta
- 1.03
- Volume
- 2,028,857
- Dividend yield
- 2.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -22.6% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$124.84
+12.1% from spot
Bull case ties to the high end of the final fair-value range and requires better-than-modeled fundamentals or a durable improvement in the market multiple.
- Stronger-than-expected freight market recovery drives an immediate surge in orders.
- High-margin parts segment expands structurally.
- Market sustains peak terminal multiple assumptions.
Base50%
Price target
$90.52
-18.7% from spot
The company effectively navigates the cyclical trough. A modest year-one revenue contraction (-0.74%) is followed by an 8.33% recovery in year two as replacement cycles normalize. Valuations remain tightly bound by historical mid-cycle dynamics.
- Mid-cycle recovery standardizes forward earnings generation.
- Operating margins normalize to a sustainable 10.5% through-cycle.
- Terminal PE holds at a historically conservative 14x.
Bear35%
Price target
$63.41
-43.1% from spot
An extended freight recession depresses trucking rates, causing fleets to delay replacements indefinitely. Margin compression and financial service distress constrict terminal cash flows, pulling valuation aggressively down to our cycle-trough floor.
- Freight recession extends, crushing replacement demand.
- High interest rates pressure the captive financial services division.
- Operating margins severely compress below 8% support levels.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $90.5.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $81.9 | -28.4% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $88.5 | -22.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $145 | +26.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $108 | -5.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $36.0 | -68.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $24.1 | -78.9% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $90.5 | -18.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($90.52). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $107 | $118 | $131 | $147 | $158 |
| 7.5% | $90.5 | $98.1 | $107 | $118 | $131 |
| 8.5% | $78.5 | $84.0 | $90.5 | $98.1 | $107 |
| 9.5% | $69.2 | $73.5 | $78.5 | $84.0 | $90.5 |
| 10.5% | $61.9 | $65.4 | $69.2 | $73.5 | $78.5 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet7.5
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth2.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 2.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Reduce exposure. The current market price inherently embeds aggressive trough-inflated multiples with zero margin of safety.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$114
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions dynamically. The prevailing $111.37 price carries excessive cycle-risk premium against our $90.52 fair value mid.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E16.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE13.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All PCAR indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
273
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 273 of 273 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PCAR
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PCAR report
What is the current PCAR stock rating?
PACCAR Inc is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PCAR analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PCAR/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PCAR?
The latest report frames PCAR around $63 to $125. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PCAR page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReducePCAR · Fair value $90.5-18.7% · Confidence 82/100