Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)
NYSE: PH · Real-Time Price · USD
$879
-6.02 (-0.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PH rated Reduce
Reduce rating. The massive gap between our $679 base fair value and the $881 market price indicates the stock is fully priced for perfection, severely skewing the risk/reward ratio to the downside.
Fair value (mid)
$679 / share
$473 – $886
Upside to FV
-23.0%
from $879
Confidence
84/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Flawless execution of the aerospace aftermarket strategy and accelerated reshoring trends drive organic growth well above internal valuation cross-checks. Acquisition synergies push margins to record highs, justifying the market's current exuberant pricing.
Biggest risk
Aerospace Downcycle
Aerospace Downcycle: A sudden contraction in commercial aerospace build rates and aftermarket demand severely compresses high-margin segment revenue.
Recommended action
Reduce
Reduce. The asset is priced for an extended supercycle, leaving investors heavily exposed to multiple contraction and mean reversion.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $111.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 21B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 3.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $27.1 | |
| Shares out | 126.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 32.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 25.9x | |
| Dividend | $8.00 (0.91%) | |
| Volume | 753,847 | |
| Beta | 1.18 | |
| Price target | $1000 | +13.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 21B
- Net income (ttm)
- 3.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $27.1
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.9x
- Market cap
- $111.1B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $15.86B | $19.07B | $19.93B | $19.85B | +7.8% |
| Gross profit | $5.31B | $6.43B | $7.13B | $7.32B | +11.3% |
| Operating income | $2.81B | $3.08B | $3.81B | $4.06B | +13.1% |
| Net income | $1.32B | $2.08B | $2.84B | $3.53B | +39.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.09 | $16.04 | $21.84 | $27.12 | +39.0% |
| EBITDA | $2.44B | $4.07B | $5.03B | $5.42B | +30.5% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.50B | $3.35B | $3.32B | $3.26B | +9.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $473
- Fair value (mid)
- $679
- Fair value (high)
- $886
- Current price
- $879
- Upside to mid
- -23.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $514 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $1065 | 25% |
| FCFF DCF | $604 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $527 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $562 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $293 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $143 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$1000
+13.8%
In the news
Latest news · PH
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $111.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.9x
- P/S
- 5.3x
- P/B
- 7.6x
- PEG
- 2.64
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.4%
- Operating margin
- 21.7%
- ROE
- 24.8%
- ROA
- 9.5%
- ROIC
- 15.5%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.66
- Current ratio
- 1.13
- Quick ratio
- 0.60
Trading
- Beta
- 1.18
- Volume
- 753,847
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -22.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$885.86
+0.5% from spot
Flawless execution of the aerospace aftermarket strategy and accelerated reshoring trends drive organic growth well above internal valuation cross-checks. Acquisition synergies push margins to record highs, justifying the market's current exuberant pricing.
- Aerospace supercycle continues uninterrupted for a decade
- Operating margins permanently expand toward 23-25%
- Market sustains a 24x+ terminal multiple indefinitely
Base60%
Price target
$678.97
-23.0% from spot
Parker-Hannifin executes well on its portfolio transformation, but fundamental growth anchors around 5%. The market's current 26x multiple normalizes toward historical averages, pulling intrinsic value significantly below the current trading price.
- Revenue growth normalizes from 7.3% to a mature 3% terminal rate
- Operating margins stabilize at a structural 21%
- Terminal multiple is strictly capped at 20x to prevent over-extrapolation
Bear20%
Price target
$472.84
-46.3% from spot
Sticky inflation and an industrial recession severely pressure margins. The massive $9.3B debt load limits capital flexibility, and the market violently strips away the aerospace premium as fundamental cyclicality reasserts itself.
- Prolonged industrial recession pressures short-cycle businesses
- Operating margins compress back below 19%
- Terminal multiple reverts to 15x cyclical norms
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $679.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $514 | -41.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $1065 | +21.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $604 | -31.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $527 | -40.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $562 | -36.1% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $293 | -66.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $143 | -83.7% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $679 | -23.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $718 | $793 | $885 | $1002 | $1057 |
| 8.3% | $604 | $656 | $718 | $793 | $885 |
| 9.3% | $521 | $560 | $604 | $656 | $718 |
| 10.3% | $459 | $488 | $521 | $560 | $604 |
| 11.3% | $409 | $432 | $459 | $488 | $521 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.7
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 84/100
Target weight
Zero weight recommended at current prices. The stock is priced for perfection with highly asymmetric downside risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$879
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- For existing holders, taking profits or writing covered calls is highly advisable given the massive divergence from fundamental intrinsic value.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E25.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE24.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC15.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All PH indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
283
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 283 of 283 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PH
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PH report
What is the current PH stock rating?
Parker-Hannifin Corporation is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PH analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PH/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PH?
The latest report frames PH around $473 to $886. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PH page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReducePH · Fair value $679-23.0% · Confidence 84/100