تحلیل اختیاری محصول
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ResMed's biggest opportunity lies in accelerating international patient diagnosis and recurring mask resupply penetration across 140 countries.
Operating margin falling below 30.37% over the next 12 months, down 300 basis points from the FY2026 level of 33.37%.
We rate ResMed a Hold with a Fair value of $239.41 per share, offering a modest 9.37% implied return from the report-date price of $218.89 on October 2, 2026.3
A Hold rating indicates that existing investors should maintain their current holdings, while new capital should wait for a more compelling entry point or greater visibility on supply chain headwinds. ResMed is an exceptionally well-run medical compounder, but the current valuation adequately reflects its near-term earnings power, leaving an insufficient margin of safety for new position initiation.3
On the report date of October 2, 2026, ResMed shares closed at $218.89. Our analysis establishes a Fair value of $239.41 per share, indicating that the stock trades at an 8.57% discount to its intrinsic worth, or a 9.37% upside potential. In an optimistic operating environment where core volume accelerates and supply friction clears rapidly, reaches $282.29 per share.
The principal risk to the thesis is persistent electronic component inflation and supply chain friction that impairs operating margins. If component cost inflation outpaces manufacturing productivity while customer contracts restrict price increases, operating margin could fall below 30.37% from FY2026's 33.37% level. This would reduce operating cash generation and trigger a valuation multiple compression toward medtech peer levels.245
The primary catalyst for value creation is ResMed's dominant market position in sleep health, where cloud-connected flow generators drive recurring, high-margin mask and accessory resupply. As diagnostic funnels expand across 140 international markets and patients stay adherent via digital software, high-margin resupply revenue compounds, expanding cash flows and enabling substantial capital return through $1.5 billion in guided share repurchases.46
ResMed generated $4.98 billion in FY2026 revenue from its Sleep and Breathing Health segment with a 44.29% operating margin. Connected AirSense devices create an ongoing resupply cycle for masks and accessories that grew double digits in Q4 FY2026.46
Non-US revenue reached $2.09 billion in FY2026, representing 37.0% of consolidated revenue. ResMed distributes products in 140 countries, capturing high-growth patient diagnosis runway across international markets and mitigating single-region reimbursement risks.46
ResMed generated $1.81 billion in FY2026 operating cash flow against disciplined capex of $156.3 million. Management authorized $1.5 billion in share repurchases and over $1.85 billion in total capital return for FY2027, backed by a 10% dividend hike to $0.66 per quarter.45
We rate ResMed a Hold because its durable sleep franchise and recurring mask resupply cash flows are balanced by near-term component inflation and a modest 9.37% implied return at the report-date price of $218.89.3
ResMed Inc. is a global developer and manufacturer of digital health solutions and cloud-connected medical devices designed for sleep apnea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and other respiratory conditions. The company operates primarily through two segments: Sleep and Breathing Health, which produces continuous positive airway pressure devices, ventilators, and masks, and Residential Care Software, which provides cloud-based business management software for out-of-hospital care providers.
ResMed serves home medical equipment distributors, healthcare clinicians, and patients across more than 140 countries. Its product offerings integrate cloud connectivity and algorithmic software platforms to improve patient adherence, streamline clinical workflows, and lower system-wide healthcare delivery costs.
The company operates a global manufacturing and distribution footprint covering specialist component production, device assembly, and testing of treatment systems and resupply accessories. It sources components from diversified multi-vendor suppliers alongside specialized manufacturing partners to maintain product availability and supply chain reliability.
A compounded stress scenario evaluates the convergence of operational, regulatory, and multiple headwinds. In this test, electronic component inflation and freight expenses persist through FY2027, outpacing automated manufacturing productivity and driving gross margins down toward 58.0%,. Simultaneously, the sales suspension of Astral ventilators extends beyond FY2027, perpetuating the $75 million annual top-line drag and absorbing valuable engineering capacity. Under these conditions, operating margins compress by 300 basis points from FY2026 reported levels of 33.37% down to 30.37%, while consolidated revenue growth moderates to 2.5%-3.0%. As cash flow generation softens, market sentiment de-rates ResMed's forward P/E multiple from 18.52x toward the peer medtech median of 12.71x, driving fair value down toward $192.92. Even in this stressed framework, ResMed's debt-free balance sheet with $1.07 billion in net cash and high recurring cash flows from mask replenishment mitigate solvency risk.
ResMed trades at a forward P/E multiple of 18.52x, commanding a substantial valuation premium over the medtech peer median of 12.71x (COO at 12.12x and ALGN at 11.49x). If flow generator volume growth slows or sleep therapy adoption pauses, valuation multiples could de-rate toward the trigger level of 14.8x within 12 months, driving an estimated 20% fair value impairment.23
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Deceleration in core sleep therapy below 3.0% indicates device market share losses to competing medtech manufacturers or slower new patient diagnosis funnels, directly impairing ResMed's primary high-margin recurring mask resupply compounding and forcing reductions in terminal growth assumptions.
وضعیت فعلی:8% constant-currency device growth in Q4 FY2026 and double-digit mask replenishment growth ($4,977,630,000 in FY2026),
هشدار در صورتConstant-currency revenue growth falling below 3.0% in Sleep and Breathing Health
ResMed's wide economic moat is anchored by its undisputed global leadership in Sleep and Breathing Health, where it generated $4,977,630,000 in FY2026 revenue and $2,204,498,000 in segment operating income, achieving a segment operating margin of 44.29%. The structural foundation of this advantage is not merely hardware manufacturing, but the seamless integration of connected flow generators with the AirView cloud informatics platform and the MyAir patient engagement application. This closed-loop software ecosystem connects patients, physicians, and durable medical equipment (DME) providers, automating compliance tracking, clinical reporting, and insurance reimbursement. Once a DME provider integrates AirView into its billing and monitoring infrastructure, migrating to a competing device platform introduces substantial operational friction, administrative expense, and audit risk.
This software-enabled switching barrier reinforces a high-margin, recurring mask resupply engine that insulates ResMed from capital equipment replacement cycles. Mask resupply delivered double-digit growth in Q4 FY2026, complemented by 8% constant-currency device growth globally. As connected devices report real-time therapy metrics, automated resupply programs prompt mask cushion and headgear replacements at regular intervals. This recurring consumable stream delivers premium gross margins and predictable cash generation, generating $3,451,739,000 in consolidated gross profit (61.06% margin) in FY2026,. Consolidated operating income reached $1,886,715,000 (33.37% EBIT margin), substantially outperforming medtech peers such as Align Technology (18.25% operating margin) and Cooper Companies (20.82% operating margin), as well as the broader industry benchmark of 15.50%.
ResMed's competitive durability is further protected by global scale and extensive intellectual property across 140 countries. International revenue outside the United States generated $2,091,419,000 in FY2026 (37.0% of total revenue), while United States revenue contributed $3,562,024,000. This broad geographic diversification diversifies regulatory and reimbursement risk while funding sustained R&D across platforms such as AirSense 11. Operating cash flow of $1,805,829,000 and free cash flow of $1,649,544,000 against modest capital expenditures of $156,285,000 underscore high returns on capital that protect economic profits across a multi-decade horizon.
ResMed creates substantial economic value, delivering an operating return on invested capital of 21.82% that exceeds its computed cost of capital (WACC of 8.6286% and cost of equity of 8.7342%) by more than 1,300 basis points. In FY2026, the company generated $1,886,715,000 in EBIT and $1,523,293,000 in net income on $5,653,443,000 in revenue, demonstrating sustained economic profit generation across economic cycles.15
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($239.41). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.6B after modeled reinvestment of $20.0M, with terminal value at 79.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base case, ResMed achieves a target valuation of $239.41, representing a return of 9.4% relative to $218.89 with an assigned probability of 60.0%. This scenario requires steady volume growth across cloud-connected sleep therapy devices, sustained high-margin mask replenishment cycles, and manufacturing productivity that counters persistent electronic component inflation. Disconfirmation would occur if core device placements stall or if gross margin fails to recover across upcoming quarters.
Core sleep device volume acceleration and double-digit mask replenishment growth demonstrate operating leverage, confirming that gross margin productivity is successfully overcoming supply chain headwinds and justifying an upgraded investment stance.
Performance aligns with full-year expectations, where core volume growth offsets the temporary ventilator sales pause and capital return plans progress as scheduled.
Top-line deceleration combined with unabsorbed manufacturing overhead and inability to implement price increases would signify structural margin erosion and competitive vulnerability.
ResMed exhibits high earnings quality driven by robust operating cash flow that comfortably exceeds reported net income. Cash generation is anchored by recurring high-margin mask replenishment cycles and high digital ecosystem adherence, minimizing working capital volatility. Accruals remain low and inventory turns reflect disciplined supply chain management, though sequential gross margin pressure from electronic component and freight costs underscores the need to monitor cost of goods sold absorption.
Consensus estimates have remained broadly flat following the recent earnings release and guidance update. Analysts adjusted top-line expectations to incorporate management's initial full-year revenue guidance and the Astral ventilator sales suspension, while earnings per share expectations held steady, reflecting confidence in mask resupply momentum and announced share repurchases.
Gross margin reveals whether manufacturing productivity initiatives and modest pricing adjustments are successfully offsetting specialized electronic component and freight inflation, directly determining operating profit.
Cash flow generation is structurally robust. Operating cash flow reached $1,805,829,000 in FY2026, generating $1,649,544,000 in free cash flow after deducting $156,285,000 in capex, compared to FY2025 free cash flow of $1,650,946,000. Free cash flow conversion exceeded 108% of GAAP net income of $1,523,293,000. This superior cash conversion is sustained by the high-margin consumable nature of mask resupply and negative net working capital cycles in software and direct DME distribution.57
ResMed's capital allocation exhibits exceptional discipline, balancing internal organic reinvestment, high shareholder returns, and selective tuck-in acquisitions. In FY2026, were $156,285,000, and management guided FY2027 to $160 million to $180 million to support manufacturing automation and footprint expansion. Following the divestiture of MatrixCare, management announced an accelerated share repurchase program of $450 million within a total $1.5 billion authorization for FY2027,. Together with a 10% dividend hike to $0.66 per share quarterly, total capital return to shareholders will exceed $1.85 billion in FY2027. With total debt of $825,918,976 against market capitalization of $30,784,524,288 (2.61% debt weight) and of $1.07 billion, balance sheet flexibility remains pristine.
ResMed's ROIC of 21.82% sits substantially above its cost of capital, reflecting durable pricing power, high asset turnover in device manufacturing, and high-margin recurring consumables. The spread of over 1,300 basis points validates the durability of ResMed's wide economic moat across capital cycles.
ROIC of 21.82% dramatically outpaces computed WACC of 8.6286% and computed Ke moderate of 8.7342%.
| درآمد | $۵٬۶۵۳٬۴۴۳٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| بهای تمام‌شده درآمد | $۲٬۲۰۱٬۷۰۴٬۰۰۰ |
| سود ناخالص | $۳٬۴۵۱٬۷۳۹٬۰۰۰ |
| هزینه‌های عملیاتی | $۱٬۵۶۵٬۰۲۴٬۰۰۰ |
| سود عملیاتی | $۱٬۸۸۶٬۷۱۵٬۰۰۰ |
| اقلام غیرعملیاتی و مالیات | −$۳۶۳٬۴۲۲٬۰۰۰ |
| سود خالص | $۱٬۵۲۳٬۲۹۳٬۰۰۰ |
| کل دارایی‌ها | $۸٬۹۶۵٬۹۵۰٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| وجه نقد | $۱٬۴۶۹٬۲۳۴٬۰۰۰ |
| دارایی‌های جاری | $۴٬۳۲۴٬۷۳۹٬۰۰۰ |
| کل بدهی‌ها | $۲٬۳۸۰٬۵۵۷٬۰۰۰ |
| بدهی‌های جاری | $۱٬۳۹۵٬۱۱۰٬۰۰۰ |
| حقوق صاحبان سهام | $۶٬۵۸۵٬۳۹۳٬۰۰۰ |
| سود خالص | $۱٬۵۲۳٬۲۹۳٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| ورودی نقد عملیاتی | $۱٬۸۲۸٬۹۸۳٬۰۰۰ |
| استهلاک و کاهش ارزش | $۲۰۱٬۳۴۲٬۰۰۰ |
| جبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام | $۱۰۴٬۳۴۸٬۰۰۰ |
| جریان نقدی عملیاتی | $۱٬۸۰۵٬۸۲۹٬۰۰۰ |
| خروجی نقد عملیاتی | $۲۳٬۱۵۴٬۰۰۰ |
| نقد در دسترس | $۳٬۰۲۱٬۴۶۲٬۰۰۰ |
| نقد ابتدای دوره | $۱٬۲۰۹٬۴۵۰٬۰۰۰ |
| اثر نرخ ارز | $۶٬۱۸۳٬۰۰۰ |
| خروجی نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | $۵۴۵٬۱۹۹٬۰۰۰ |
| مخارج سرمایه‌ای | $۱۵۶٬۲۸۵٬۰۰۰ |
| سایر فعالیت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری | $۳۸۸٬۹۱۴٬۰۰۰ |
| خروجی نقد تأمین مالی | $۱٬۰۰۷٬۰۲۹٬۰۰۰ |
| نقد پایان دوره | $۱٬۴۶۹٬۲۳۴٬۰۰۰ |
| جریان نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | −$۵۴۵٬۱۹۹٬۰۰۰ |
| جریان نقد تأمین مالی | −$۱٬۰۰۷٬۰۲۹٬۰۰۰ |
منبع: SEC EDGAR · تاریخ ثبت 2026-08-13 · SEC EDGAR
| درآمد بر اساس بخش عملیاتی | درآمد | سهم | سال‌به‌سال |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleep And Breathing Health | $ ۵ میلیارد | ۸۸٪ | ۱۰٫۵٪ |
| Residential Care Software | $ ۶۷۵٫۸ میلیون | ۱۲٪ | ۵٫۴٪ |
منبع: SEC EDGAR · تاریخ ثبت 2026-08-13 · SEC EDGAR
| درآمد بر اساس منطقه | درآمد | سهم | سال‌به‌سال |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $ ۳٫۶ میلیارد | ۶۳٪ | ۸٫۴٪ |
| Non Us | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | ۳۷٪ | ۱۲٫۴٪ |
داده‌های مالی مقطعی استفاده‌شده در تحلیل 2026-10-04.
| دوره | درآمد | EBITDA | سود خالص | جریان نقدی عملیاتی | جریان نقدی آزاد | مخارج سرمایه‌ای | استهلاک و کاهش ارزش | جبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام | بازخرید سهام | سود سهام پرداخت‌شده | خالص انتشار بدهی | جریان نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | جریان نقد تأمین مالی | نقد ابتدای دوره | نقد پایان دوره | وجه نقد و سرمایه‌گذاری‌ها | کل بدهی | حاشیه عملیاتی | ROIC | WACC | شکاف ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-30 | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۵۶۸٫۹ میلیون | $ ۳۴۲٫۳ میلیون | $ ۴۱۴٫۱ میلیون | $ ۳۵۱٫۸ میلیون | $ ۶۲٫۲ میلیون | $ ۱۱۲٫۲ میلیون | $ ۴۵٫۹ میلیون | — | $ ۱۸۶٫۳ میلیون | — | −$ ۸۱٫۹ میلیون | −$ ۲۶۲٫۹ میلیون | — | $ ۸۲۱٫۹ میلیون | $ ۸۲۱٫۹ میلیون | $ ۱٫۱ میلیارد | ۲۰٫۶٪ | — | ۵٫۷٪ | — |
| 2018-06-30 | $ ۲٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۶۸۰٫۲ میلیون | $ ۳۱۵٫۶ میلیون | $ ۵۰۵ میلیون | $ ۴۴۲٫۴ میلیون | $ ۶۲٫۶ میلیون | $ ۱۲۰ میلیون | $ ۴۸٫۴ میلیون | $ ۵۳٫۸ میلیون | $ ۱۹۹٫۵ میلیون | — | −$ ۱۰۱٫۸ میلیون | −$ ۱ میلیارد | $ ۸۲۱٫۹ میلیون | $ ۱۸۸٫۷ میلیون | $ ۱۸۸٫۷ میلیون | $ ۲۷۰ میلیون | ۲۳٫۲٪ | — | ۶٫۵٪ | — |
| 2019-06-30 | $ ۲٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۷۰۵٫۸ میلیون | $ ۴۰۴٫۶ میلیون | $ ۴۵۹٫۱ میلیون | $ ۳۹۰٫۳ میلیون | $ ۶۸٫۷ میلیون | $ ۱۵۰٫۸ میلیون | $ ۵۲٫۱ میلیون | $ ۲۲٫۸ میلیون | $ ۲۱۱٫۷ میلیون | — | −$ ۱٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۵۸۰٫۶ میلیون | $ ۱۸۸٫۷ میلیون | $ ۱۴۷٫۱ میلیون | $ ۱۴۷٫۱ میلیون | $ ۱٫۳ میلیارد | ۲۲٫۲٪ | — | ۵٫۰٪ | — |
| 2020-06-30 | $ ۳ میلیارد | $ ۹۹۰٫۴ میلیون | $ ۶۲۱٫۷ میلیون | $ ۸۰۲٫۳ میلیون | $ ۷۰۶٫۹ میلیون | $ ۹۵٫۳ میلیون | $ ۱۵۴٫۹ میلیون | $ ۵۷٫۶ میلیون | — | $ ۲۲۵٫۱ میلیون | — | −$ ۱۷۹٫۹ میلیون | −$ ۳۱۷٫۳ میلیون | $ ۱۴۷٫۱ میلیون | $ ۴۶۳٫۲ میلیون | $ ۴۶۳٫۲ میلیون | $ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | ۲۷٫۴٪ | — | ۳٫۲٪ | — |
| 2021-06-30 | $ ۳٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۴۷۴٫۵ میلیون | $ ۷۳۶٫۷ میلیون | $ ۶۳۴ میلیون | $ ۱۰۲٫۷ میلیون | $ ۱۵۶٫۸ میلیون | $ ۶۳٫۹ میلیون | — | $ ۲۲۶٫۷ میلیون | — | −$ ۱۵۸٫۵ میلیون | −$ ۷۶۴٫۶ میلیون | $ ۴۶۳٫۲ میلیون | $ ۲۹۵٫۳ میلیون | $ ۲۹۵٫۳ میلیون | $ ۶۴۳٫۴ میلیون | ۲۸٫۳٪ | — | ۳٫۸٪ | — |
| 2022-06-30 | $ ۳٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۷۷۹٫۴ میلیون | $ ۳۵۱٫۱ میلیون | $ ۲۱۶٫۳ میلیون | $ ۱۳۴٫۸ میلیون | $ ۱۵۹٫۶ میلیون | $ ۶۵٫۳ میلیون | $۰ | $ ۲۴۵٫۳ میلیون | $ ۱۲۲ میلیون | −$ ۲۲۹٫۹ میلیون | −$ ۱۲۸٫۴ میلیون | $ ۲۹۵٫۳ میلیون | $ ۲۷۳٫۷ میلیون | $ ۲۸۲٫۹ میلیون | $ ۷۶۵٫۳ میلیون | ۲۸٫۰٪ | — | ۵٫۴٪ | — |
| 2023-06-30 | $ ۴٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۸۹۷٫۶ میلیون | $ ۶۹۳٫۳ میلیون | $ ۵۷۳٫۶ میلیون | $ ۱۱۹٫۷ میلیون | $ ۱۶۵٫۲ میلیون | $ ۷۱٫۱ میلیون | $۰ | $ ۲۵۸٫۳ میلیون | $ ۶۶۵ میلیون | −$ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۴۲۲٫۹ میلیون | $ ۲۷۳٫۷ میلیون | $ ۲۲۷٫۹ میلیون | $ ۲۴۰٫۳ میلیون | $ ۱٫۴ میلیارد | ۲۶٫۸٪ | — | ۶٫۴٪ | — |
| 2024-06-30 | $ ۴٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۱ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۹۹٫۵ میلیون | $ ۱۷۶٫۹ میلیون | $ ۸۰٫۲ میلیون | $ ۱۵۰ میلیون | $ ۲۸۲٫۳ میلیون | −$ ۷۳۰ میلیون | −$ ۲۶۹٫۸ میلیون | −$ ۱٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۲۲۷٫۹ میلیون | $ ۲۳۸٫۴ میلیون | $ ۲۵۰٫۴ میلیون | $ ۶۹۷٫۳ میلیون | ۲۸٫۲٪ | — | ۷٫۲٪ | — |
| 2025-06-30 | $ ۵٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۸۹٫۹ میلیون | $ ۱۹۸٫۵ میلیون | $ ۹۱٫۷ میلیون | $ ۳۰۰ میلیون | $ ۳۱۰٫۹ میلیون | −$ ۴۰ میلیون | −$ ۲۰۰ میلیون | −$ ۶۰۶٫۳ میلیون | $ ۲۳۸٫۴ میلیون | $ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۶۵۸٫۴ میلیون | ۳۲٫۷٪ | — | ۷٫۹٪ | — |
| 2026-06-30 | $ ۵٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۱۵۶٫۳ میلیون | $ ۲۰۱٫۳ میلیون | $ ۱۰۴٫۳ میلیون | $ ۷۰۰ میلیون | $ ۳۴۹٫۷ میلیون | −$ ۱۰ میلیون | −$ ۵۴۵٫۲ میلیون | −$ ۱ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۳۹۹٫۴ میلیون | ۳۳٫۴٪ | — | ۷٫۷٪ | — |
ResMed Inc. (RMD) trades at 18.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.8x compares with a peer median of 13.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Cooper Companies Inc., Align Technology Inc., Intuitive Surgical Inc. and Biogen Inc., as of 2026-10-04.
The medical technology industry demonstrates disciplined capital intensity, characterized by a benchmark capex-to-revenue ratio of 4.5% and a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.80. ResMed's FY2026 capex was $156,285,000 on $5,653,443,000 in revenue, yielding an intensity of 2.76%. Because capacity utilization, equipment lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence are unavailable, the capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.5
A favorable medtech cycle is driven by growing clinical awareness of obstructive sleep apnea, expansion of home-based diagnostic testing, and increasing international adoption of cloud-connected therapy platforms.
Downside cyclical risks stem from hospital and homecare reimbursement tightening, persistent electronic component inflation elevating equipment manufacturing costs, and potential regulatory remediation delays that constrain device availability.
ResMed occupies an advantaged position as the dominant global manufacturer of connected respiratory devices and sleep masks. Its global scale across 140 countries and software informatics infrastructure allow it to navigate supply chain frictions and outgrow standard medical device market expansion rates.4
With ResMed trading at $218.89 as of October 2, 2026 relative to the committee Fair value of $239.41 (an implied return of 9.37%), the risk/reward profile justifies maintaining a Hold rating. A moderate position weighting of 2-4% is recommended for diversified equity portfolios, reflecting ResMed's wide economic moat and 21.82% ROIC exceeding computed WACC of 8.63%, while appropriately weighting near-term component inflation and the $75 million Astral sales pause.134
Risk management focuses on monitoring input cost inflation, regulatory compliance across respiratory device lines, and reimbursement stability across 140 countries. ResMed's conservative capital structure, featuring $1.07 billion in net cash and disciplined annual capital expenditures of $156.3 million, provides significant liquidity cushion to absorb temporary operational headwinds without balance-sheet distress.
Maintain core positions. ResMed possesses a wide economic moat, exceptional cash generation of $1.81 billion in FY2026 operating cash flow, and return on invested capital above 21% that comfortably exceeds its 8.63% WACC. With $1.5 billion in planned FY2027 share buybacks, long-term equity compounding remains solid.145
Pause new capital deployment. At $218.89 per share as of October 2, 2026, the implied return to Fair value of $239.41 is 9.37%. This narrow discount does not offer a sufficient margin of safety against near-term component cost inflation and the $75 million Astral revenue suspension headwind.34
Hold existing allocation. ResMed offers defensive non-cyclical healthcare demand, low leverage with debt-to-capital of only 2.61%, and a 10% dividend hike to $0.66 per quarter. However, valuation multiple de-rating risks toward peer medtech medians of 12.71x forward P/E warrant waiting for clearer margin stabilization.14
We recommend a Hold on ResMed Inc. shares at $218.89 as of October 2, 2026. ResMed is a premier global medical device and digital health compounder, but the stock sits at a modest 8.57% discount to our Fair value of $239.41 per share (9.37% implied return). While high-margin recurring mask resupply and international expansion provide fundamental stability, near-term supply chain headwinds and valuation multiple sensitivity limit immediate upside.3
Investors should wait for a pullback or tangible evidence that manufacturing productivity has outpaced component cost inflation before establishing new positions. Sustained execution on the $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization and continued double-digit mask replenishment growth could unlock Potential value of $282.29 over a multi-year horizon.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The downside scenario envisions persistent supply chain frictions, where elevated costs for specialized electronic assemblies and freight outstrip productivity savings and customer contracts restrict pricing power. Additionally, an extended pause in ventilator commercialization and decelerating CPAP volume would curtail free cash flow conversion, prompting market multiples to converge toward peer medtech medians. Investors would identify this trajectory if gross margin contracts further or if sleep therapy revenue growth stalls across consecutive periods.
Gross margin contracted by 50 basis points sequentially in Q4 FY2026 due to escalating electronic component and freight costs, with inflation outpacing productivity in early FY2027 while customer contracts constrain immediate price pass-through. If operating margins breach the 30.37% trigger level from FY2026 reported EBIT margin of 33.37% ($1,886,715,000 EBIT on $5,653,443,000 revenue),, fair value would suffer an estimated 18.5% impairment.45
Operating margin compression below 30.0% demonstrates that persistent electronic component and freight inflation is outrunning manufacturing productivity while customer contracts restrict price pass-through, requiring a permanent downward reset to normalized operating margins.
وضعیت فعلی:33.37% in FY2026 ($1,886,715,000 EBIT on $5,653,443,000 revenue),
هشدار در صورتOperating margin dropping below 30.0% (or 30.37% in kill scenario trigger)
Contraction in international revenue indicates that global patient diagnostic expansion is faltering or that foreign exchange and fragmented healthcare reimbursement structures are eroding overseas commercial penetration across 140 countries.
وضعیت فعلی:$2,091,419,000 in FY2026 (37.0% of consolidated revenue)
هشدار در صورتFlat or negative year-over-year revenue growth in Non-US markets
Capital expenditure rising above 4.5% reveals severe supply chain inefficiencies, dual-sourcing premiums, and escalating factory retooling costs that diminish free cash flow conversion.
وضعیت فعلی:2.76% of revenue in FY2026 ($156,285,000 capex on $5,653,443,000 revenue),
A breach below 58.0% gross margin confirms that component inflation in printed circuit board assemblies and logistics cannot be compensated by automated manufacturing or modest pricing adjustments, directly threatening consolidated profitability.
وضعیت فعلی:61.06% in FY2026 ($3,451,739,000 gross profit on $5,653,443,000 revenue),
هشدار در صورتGross margin dropping below 58.0%
| Astral ventilator sales suspension resulting in a $75 million top-line headwind in FY2027 and remediation resource diversion. | medium | 12-24 months | Reallocating available electronic components to field service support and corrective activities while maintaining core CPAP platform expansion.4 |
| Adoption of medical alternatives such as GLP-1 receptor agonists or neurostimulation devices potentially slowing patient flow. | low | 24-36 months | Demonstrating clinical compliance advantages through MyAir, expanding patient diagnosis funnels, and leveraging combined therapeutic approaches.4 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $۴۵٫۴۱ comes from forecast-period earnings and $۲۰۱ from the long-term value, totaling $۲۴۷.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($۴۸٫۳۵) plus discounted terminal value ($۱۸۷) minus signed per current share (−$۷٫۶۱) equals the $۲۴۳ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the bull case, ResMed reaches Potential value of $282.29, yielding an attractive return of 29.0% against $218.89 with a probability of 20.0%. This upside path requires accelerated patient diagnosis across international markets, rapid resolution of component allocation bottlenecks, and substantial operating leverage from SaaS software platforms following portfolio streamlining. Investors would observe confirmation through accelerating constant-currency revenue growth and expanding operating margins across quarterly reporting checkpoints.
Flow generator placements expand the installed base of patients using cloud-connected platforms, fueling high-margin recurring mask replenishment cycles that drive the bulk of operating earnings.
The paused sale of new Astral ventilators creates an explicit top-line drag and consumes technical resources for component reallocation, impacting respiratory care growth.
Expanding sleep diagnosis awareness and device distribution across non-US markets broadens revenue diversification beyond the domestic healthcare reimbursement system.
Substantial share repurchases and regular dividend payouts reduce diluted share count and enhance per-share compounding given the debt-free balance sheet.
| $6.57B |
| $6.97B |
| $7.35B |
| Revenue growth | 2.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Operating margin | 33.5% | 33.8% | 34.0% | 34.2% | 34.3% |
| Operating income | $1.94B | $2.09B | $2.23B | $2.38B | $2.52B |
| Tax rate | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| NOPAT | $1.58B | $1.69B | $1.81B | $1.93B | $2.05B |
| Reinvestment | $20.04M | $80.89M | $101.53M | $120.82M | $143.99M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 1.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $1.56B | $1.61B | $1.71B | $1.81B | $1.90B |
| Sleep and Breathing Health revenue | $5.11B | $5.43B | $5.79B | $6.13B | $6.47B |
| Residential Care Software revenue | $693.76M | $737.40M | $785.33M | $832.45M | $878.23M |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Operating income reached $1,886,715,000 (33.37% margin) compared to medtech industry operating margin benchmark of 15.50%.
Substantial margin superiority over industry peers highlights pricing power, software attach, and manufacturing scale advantages.
Non-US revenue reached $2,091,419,000 (37.0% of total revenue), with products sold across 140 countries.
Broad geographical diversification protects consolidated revenue from regional reimbursement disruptions and drives multi-year volume expansion.
| حاشیه سود |
|---|
| RMD | ResMed Inc. | $30.8B | 18.5x | 5.4x | 14.8x | 24.3% | — |
| COO | The Cooper Companies Inc. | $10.8B | 12.1x | 2.6x | 14.5x | 6.8% | 20.8% |
| ALGN | Align Technology Inc. | $10.2B | 11.5x | 2.5x | 10.0x | 10.2% | 18.2% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical Inc. | $140.4B | 32.4x | 12.7x | 31.9x | 17.4% | 33.6% |
| BIIB | Biogen Inc. | $32.5B | 13.3x | 3.2x | 11.8x | 4.6% | 25.1% |
| negative |
| Tightness in global semiconductor and electronic assembly supply chains creates intermittent cost pressures and component allocation challenges for medtech hardware. |
| Gross Margin | Below 58.0% | Examine component pricing pass-through and reassess fair value midpoint. |
| Non-US Revenue Growth | Negative year-over-year growth | Investigate foreign exchange impacts and international reimbursement headwind severity. |
