Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.
DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.
Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.
Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.
| ردیف | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| درآمد | $5.43B | $6.59B+21.4% | $7.94B+20.5% | $8.83B+11.2% | +17.6% |
| سود ناخالص | $3.10B | $3.84B | $4.67B | $5.31B | +19.7% |
| سود عملیاتی | $2.22B | $2.92B | $3.58B | $4.19B | +23.7% |
| سود خالص | $866.0M | $1.30B+50.1% | $1.71B+31.5% | $2.07B+21.1% | +33.8% |
| EPS (رقیقشده) | $13.40 | $22.03 | $25.62 | $32.08 | +33.8% |
| EBITDA | $2.46B | $3.15B | $3.81B | $4.57B | +23.0% |
| تحقیق و توسعه | — | — | — | — | — |
| هزینههای عمومی و فروش | $748.0M | $780.0M | $934.0M | $921.0M | +7.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
