Walmart Inc. (WMT)
NASDAQ: WMT · Real-Time Price · USD
$130
+0.23 (+0.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: WMT rated Sell
WMT is rated Sell at $131.26 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $59.02, implying -55.04% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$59.0 / share
$46.2 – $71.9
Upside to FV
-55.0%
from $130
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Rapid scaling of high-margin segments like Walmart Connect and automated e-commerce fulfillment drives structural operating margin expansion, consistently justifying its premium valuation multiple and achieving the $71.92 bound.
Biggest risk
Terminal Multiple Reversion
Terminal Multiple Reversion: Market rotation forces WMT's ~40x forward P/E back to its historical 22x mature retail average, vaporizing multiple-driven equity value.
Recommended action
Sell
WMT is rated Sell at $131.26 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $59.02, implying -55.04% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $1.05T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 713.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 21.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.73 | |
| Shares out | 8B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 47.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 39.9x | |
| Dividend | $0.99 (0.76%) | |
| Volume | 15,183,858 | |
| Beta | 0.65 | |
| Price target | $134 | +2.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Walmart Inc.WMT
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 713.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 21.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.73
- P/E (trailing)
- 47.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 39.9x
- Market cap
- $1.05T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $572.75B | $611.29B | $648.13B | $680.99B | $713.16B | +5.6% |
| Gross profit | $143.75B | $147.57B | $157.98B | $169.23B | $177.77B | +5.5% |
| Operating income | $25.94B | $20.43B | $27.01B | $29.35B | $29.83B | +3.5% |
| Net income | $13.67B | $11.68B | $15.51B | $19.44B | $21.89B | +12.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.62 | $1.42 | $1.91 | $2.41 | $2.73 | +13.9% |
| EBITDA | $31.35B | $30.09B | $36.38B | $42.01B | $46.47B | +10.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $117.81B | $127.14B | $130.97B | $139.88B | — | +4.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $46.2
- Fair value (mid)
- $59.0
- Fair value (high)
- $71.9
- Current price
- $130
- Upside to mid
- -55.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $56.20 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $57.47 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $86.11 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $60.42 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $37.96 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $22.08 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $19.31 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$134
+2.9%
In the news
Latest news · WMT
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.05T
- P/E (trailing)
- 47.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 39.9x
- P/S
- 1.5x
- P/B
- 10.4x
- PEG
- 4.77
- EV / EBITDA
- 24.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.9%
- Operating margin
- 4.2%
- ROE
- 21.8%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- ROIC
- 13.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.64
- Current ratio
- 0.79
- Quick ratio
- 0.20
Trading
- Beta
- 0.65
- Volume
- 15,183,858
- Dividend yield
- 0.8%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -53.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$71.92
-45.2% from spot
Rapid scaling of high-margin segments like Walmart Connect and automated e-commerce fulfillment drives structural operating margin expansion, consistently justifying its premium valuation multiple and achieving the $71.92 bound.
- Rapid scaling of high-margin segments like Walmart Connect and automated e-commerce fulfillment drives structural operating margin expansion, consistently justifying its premium valuation multiple and achieving the $71.92 bound.
Base60%
Price target
$59.02
-55.0% from spot
Steady low-single-digit revenue growth and stable 4.5% operating margins persist. The terminal multiple strictly normalizes to a realistic 22x, yielding a fair value of $59.02 and massive downside from current prices.
- Steady low-single-digit revenue growth and stable 4.5% operating margins persist. The terminal multiple strictly normalizes to a realistic 22x, yielding a fair value of $59.02 and massive downside from current prices.
Bear20%
Price target
$46.19
-64.8% from spot
Prolonged consumer weakness limits volume growth, while heavy continuous investments in digital infrastructure and associate wages compress margins, leading to severe multiple contraction toward $46.19.
- Prolonged consumer weakness limits volume growth, while heavy continuous investments in digital infrastructure and associate wages compress margins, leading to severe multiple contraction toward $46.19.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $59.0.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $56.2 | -56.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $57.5 | -55.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $86.1 | -34.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $60.4 | -53.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $38.0 | -70.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $22.1 | -83.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $19.3 | -85.2% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $59.0 | -55.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $71.6 | $80.2 | $91.0 | $103 | $103 |
| 7.2% | $59.0 | $64.7 | $71.6 | $80.2 | $91.0 |
| 8.2% | $50.2 | $54.3 | $59.0 | $64.7 | $71.6 |
| 9.2% | $43.7 | $46.7 | $50.2 | $54.3 | $59.0 |
| 10.2% | $38.6 | $41.0 | $43.7 | $46.7 | $50.2 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability6.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Zero allocation. The -55% downside to base fair value invalidates any long thesis.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$130
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Execute immediate outright sale. Liquidate existing long positions to avoid catastrophic downside from inevitable multiple mean-reversion.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E39.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE21.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC13.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All WMT indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
283
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 283 of 283 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on WMT
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this WMT report
What is the current WMT stock rating?
Walmart Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full WMT analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/WMT/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for WMT?
The latest report frames WMT around $46 to $72. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the WMT page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellWMT · Fair value $59.0-55.0% · Confidence 88/100