Amphenol Corporation (APH)
NYSE: APH · Real-Time Price · USD
$128
-8.59 (-6.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: APH rated Hold
APH is rated Hold at $128.03 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $137.74, implying +7.58% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$138 / share
$101 – $176
Upside to FV
+7.6%
from $128
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
internal valuation cross-checks extrapolates Year 1 datacom AI surge into permanent terminal multiples.
Biggest risk
AI Datacenter CapEx Collapse
Trailing metrics lag forward models heavily, creating structural valuation tension.
Recommended action
Hold
APH is rated Hold at $128.03 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $137.74, implying +7.58% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $157.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 25.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.48 | |
| Shares out | 1.2B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 36.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 22.8x | |
| Dividend | $1.00 (0.78%) | |
| Volume | 18,190,748 | |
| Beta | 1.30 | |
| Price target | $168 | +31.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Amphenol CorporationAPH
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 25.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.48
- P/E (trailing)
- 36.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 22.8x
- Market cap
- $157.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $12.62B | $12.55B | $15.22B | $23.09B | +16.3% |
| Gross profit | — | $4.03B | $4.08B | $5.14B | $8.52B | +20.6% |
| Operating income | — | $2.61B | $2.59B | $3.28B | $5.97B | +23.0% |
| Net income | — | $1.90B | $1.93B | $2.42B | $4.27B | +22.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.27 | $1.53 | $1.56 | $1.92 | $3.34 | +27.3% |
| EBITDA | — | $2.99B | $3.00B | $3.80B | $6.89B | +23.2% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | $1.42B | $1.49B | $1.86B | $2.55B | +15.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $101
- Fair value (mid)
- $138
- Fair value (high)
- $176
- Current price
- $128
- Upside to mid
- +7.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $154 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $162 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $118 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $99.05 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $109 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $22.51 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$168
+31.4%
In the news
Latest news · APH
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $157.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 36.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 22.8x
- P/S
- 6.1x
- P/B
- 11.3x
- PEG
- 1.57
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.9%
- Operating margin
- 27.0%
- ROE
- 36.8%
- ROA
- 13.5%
- ROIC
- 21.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.33
- Current ratio
- 1.71
- Quick ratio
- 1.17
Trading
- Beta
- 1.30
- Volume
- 18,190,748
- Dividend yield
- 0.8%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +21.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$175.83
+37.3% from spot
Accelerated deployment of AI data center infrastructure and rapid electrification in vehicles drive interconnect demand significantly above baseline estimates, yielding sustained double-digit revenue growth and further margin expansion.
- Uninterrupted AI infrastructure capex cycle.
- Terminal multiple sustained above 25x.
- Operating margins expand beyond 26%.
Base50%
Price target
$137.74
+7.6% from spot
Amphenol successfully capitalizes on the near-term AI datacenter surge while maintaining strict cost controls and executing its decentralized M&A strategy, supporting a 22x terminal multiple and steady mid-single-digit long-term growth.
- Year 1 revenue growth hits 44.7% before normalizing.
- Terminal multiple settles at 22x.
- Operating margins remain stable at 26%.
Bear30%
Price target
$101.31
-20.9% from spot
A synchronized cyclical downturn in telecommunications, industrial, and automotive markets, combined with potential integration missteps on recent large acquisitions, drags down growth and compresses margins, triggering a severe multiple contraction.
- Datacom demand normalizes abruptly.
- Terminal multiple contracts to 18x.
- Integration missteps dilute margins.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $138.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $154 | +19.9% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $162 | +26.8% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $118 | -7.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $99.0 | -22.6% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $109 | -15.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $22.5 | -82.4% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $138 | +7.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $180 | $197 | $218 | $244 | $269 |
| 8.7% | $154 | $166 | $180 | $197 | $218 |
| 9.7% | $134 | $143 | $154 | $166 | $180 |
| 10.7% | $118 | $126 | $134 | $143 | $154 |
| 11.7% | $106 | $112 | $118 | $126 | $134 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.1
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
7.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Market weight. The 7.6% upside to fair value provides a limited margin of safety given the aggressive Year 1 growth assumptions.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$128
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure above $162 (Forward Earnings implied value) or if operating margins structurally degrade below 24%.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E22.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE36.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC21.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
286
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on APH
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this APH report
What is the current APH stock rating?
Amphenol Corporation is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full APH analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/APH/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for APH?
The latest report frames APH around $101 to $176. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the APH page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldAPH · Fair value $138+7.6% · Confidence 82/100