Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
NYSE: BMY · Real-Time Price · USD
$56.2
-0.09 (-0.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: BMY rated Strong Buy
BMY is rated Strong Buy at $56.16 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $84.55, implying +50.55% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Fair value (mid)
$84.5 / share
$68.8 – $101
Upside to FV
+50.5%
from $56.2
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: New product launches scale much faster than anticipated, completely offsetting LOE impacts. The company returns to mid-single-digit revenue growth.
Biggest risk
Pipeline Replacement Failure
Pipeline Replacement Failure: New assets like Opdualag and Camzyos completely fail to offset the multi-billion-dollar revenue crater from the Revlimid and Eliquis patent cliff.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
BMY is rated Strong Buy at $56.16 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $84.55, implying +50.55% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $114.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 48.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 7.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.57 | |
| Shares out | 2B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 15.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 9.1x | |
| Dividend | $2.52 (4.49%) | |
| Volume | 10,032,436 | |
| Beta | 0.26 | |
| Price target | $61.7 | +9.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 48.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 7.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.57
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 9.1x
- Market cap
- $114.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $46.16B | $45.01B | $48.30B | $48.20B | +1.4% |
| Gross profit | $36.02B | $34.31B | $34.33B | $34.26B | -1.7% |
| Operating income | $9.10B | $8.20B | $5.89B | $13.72B | +14.7% |
| Net income | $6.33B | $8.03B | $-8.95B | $7.05B | +3.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.95 | $3.86 | $-4.41 | $3.46 | +5.5% |
| EBITDA | $19.22B | $19.37B | $3.17B | $15.23B | -7.5% |
| R&D | $9.51B | $9.30B | $11.16B | $9.95B | +1.5% |
| SG&A | $7.81B | $7.77B | $8.41B | $7.27B | -2.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $68.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $84.5
- Fair value (high)
- $101
- Current price
- $56.2
- Upside to mid
- +50.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $85.31 | 85% |
| Forward earnings | $39.59 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $162 | 5% |
| Ddm | $41.87 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $131 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $54.88 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$61.7
+9.9%
In the news
Latest news · BMY
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $114.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 9.1x
- P/S
- 2.4x
- P/B
- 5.7x
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.0%
- Operating margin
- 31.6%
- ROE
- 38.7%
- ROA
- 10.7%
- ROIC
- 20.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.31
- Current ratio
- 1.42
- Quick ratio
- 1.18
Trading
- Beta
- 0.26
- Volume
- 10,032,436
- Dividend yield
- 4.5%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +50.6% expected return to fair value
Bull10%
Price target
$100.89
+79.6% from spot
New product launches scale much faster than anticipated, completely offsetting LOE impacts. The company returns to mid-single-digit revenue growth.
- Revenue growth > 2%
- Terminal multiple expands to 14x
Base40%
Price target
$84.55
+50.6% from spot
Near-term contraction is followed by stabilization. The new product portfolio gradually replaces lost legacy revenues, driven by strong free cash flow generation.
- -1.88% Year 1 revenue growth
- Terminal multiple of 10x
Bear50%
Price target
$68.85
+22.6% from spot
Pipeline assets fail to hit peak sales targets. LOE erosion outpaces new product growth, leading to sustained structural decline and potentially dilutive M&A.
- Sustained revenue contraction
- Terminal multiple drops to 8x
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $84.5.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 85% | $85.3 | +51.9% | |
| Forward earnings | 10% | $39.6 | -29.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $162 | +187.8% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $41.9 | -25.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $131 | +133.4% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $54.9 | -2.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $84.5 | +50.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | $99.4 | $99.4 | $117 | $120 | $120 |
| 4.8% | $76.5 | $76.5 | $86.5 | $99.4 | $117 |
| 5.8% | $62.1 | $62.1 | $68.5 | $76.5 | $86.5 |
| 6.8% | $52.3 | $52.3 | $56.8 | $62.1 | $68.5 |
| 7.8% | $45.2 | $45.2 | $48.5 | $52.3 | $56.8 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Given the high execution risk of the pipeline turnaround, limit sizing to a moderate weight, scaling up upon confirmed pipeline sales acceleration.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$56.2
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim position as shares approach the $84.55 fair value midpoint or if deterioration signals trigger.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E9.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE38.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC20.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
282
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on BMY
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this BMY report
What is the current BMY stock rating?
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full BMY analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/BMY/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for BMY?
The latest report frames BMY around $69 to $101. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the BMY page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyBMY · Fair value $84.5+50.5% · Confidence 80/100