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Disney is a premier entertainment compounder successfully navigating the transition from linear television to streaming, heavily anchored by its high-margin Parks & Experiences segment. While near-term growth is tempered by linear declines, its unmatched, multi-generational IP portfolio secures a durable long-term moat. Fair value range: low $91.8, high $137, with mid-point at $114.
Stock analysis

DIS fair value $92–$137

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-08Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cours
$108.66
▲ +5.45 (+5.02%)
Juste valeur
$114
$92–$137
Notation
Conserver
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
+5.0%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$96.99
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$188.7B
P/E fwd 14.6
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Mature compounder transitioning from linear TV to streaming.
  • Unmatched IP and high-margin Parks drive long-term value.
  • Near-term headwinds from linear decay and elevated capex.
  • Fair value of $114.11 implies limited upside from current levels.
Fair value
$114
Margin of safety
+4.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$108.66Price
Low $91.84
Mid $114.11
High $136.53

Disney is a premier entertainment compounder successfully navigating the transition from linear television to streaming, heavily anchored by its high-margin Parks & Experiences segment. While near-term growth is tempered by linear declines, its unmatched, multi-generational IP portfolio secures a durable long-term moat.

  • Intangible Assets (Multi-generational IP)
    Intangible Assets (Multi-generational IP)
  • Network Effect (Ecosystem monetization)
    Network Effect (Ecosystem monetization)
  • Cycle upside
    Streaming rationalization driving industry-wide price increases and margin expansion.

§2 Cas baissier

A severe consumer recession combined with accelerated linear cord-cutting tests dividend sustainability and forces drastic capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). rationalization across the Parks segment.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Linear Collapse

20%· Medium

Cord-cutting accelerates significantly faster than DTC profit replacement, permanently destroying enterprise margin.

FV impact
-$22
Trigger
1-2 Years

Theme Park Recession

15%· Low

Macroeconomic weakness materially dents park attendance and per-capita spending, halting FCF generation.

FV impact
-$25
Trigger
1-3 Years

Streaming Margin Stagnation

25%· Medium

Content acquisition costs escalate due to competition, preventing the DTC segment from reaching target double-digit margins.

FV impact
-$15
Trigger
2-4 Years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Parks operating margin compressing below 20% for consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
DTC subscriber churn increasing significantly.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Linear affiliate fee revenue dropping >15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to D&A remaining above 1.5x longer than projected.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consistent box office underperformance on tentpole franchises.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices

Poste2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$82.72B$88.90B+7.5%$91.36B+2.8%$94.43B+3.4%+4.5%
Marge brute$28.32B$29.70B$32.66B$35.66B+8.0%
Résultat d'exploitation$6.77B$8.99B$11.91B$13.83B+26.9%
Résultat net$3.15B$2.35B-25.4%$4.97B+111.5%$12.40B+149.5%+58.0%
BPA (dilué)$1.72$1.29$2.72$6.85+58.5%
EBITDA$12.00B$12.11B$14.63B$19.14B+16.9%
R&D
SG&A$16.39B$15.34B$15.76B$16.50B+0.2%

Scores de qualité

Piotroski F-score
8 / 9
Composite qualité 0–9
Altman Z-score
2.44
Risque de faillite (>3 sûr)
Beneish M-score
-2.62
Risque de manipulation des résultats
OCF / Résultat net
1.46×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
7.0%
Rendement du capital investi
Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

DIS intrinsic value questions

  1. DIS (DIS)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
FAQ

DIS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, DIS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $109 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $114 (range $91.8–$137), which implies roughly 5.0% upside to the midpoint.
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Same archetype: mature-compounder