Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
NASDAQ: GOOG · Real-Time Price · USD
$397
+1.74 (+0.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: GOOG rated Buy
GOOG is rated Buy at $384.90 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $428.74, implying +11.39% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$429 / share
$319 – $542
Upside to FV
+11.4%
from $397
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: AI directly accelerates search ad yields and Cloud enterprise revenue, allowing ROIC to expand materially despite the heavy upfront infrastructure capex cycle.
Biggest risk
AI Search Disruption
AI Search Disruption: Generative AI chat interfaces rapidly gain share, structurally lowering query volume, reducing ad real estate, and collapsing margins.
Recommended action
Buy
GOOG is rated Buy at $384.90 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $428.74, implying +11.39% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $4.66T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 422.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 160.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $13.1 | |
| Shares out | 12.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 30.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 26.6x | |
| Dividend | $0.88 (0.22%) | |
| Volume | 13,761,036 | |
| Beta | 1.27 | |
| Price target | $392 | -1.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 422.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 160.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $13.1
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 26.6x
- Market cap
- $4.66T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $282.84B | $307.39B | $350.02B | $402.84B | +12.5% |
| Gross profit | $156.63B | $174.06B | $203.71B | $240.30B | +15.3% |
| Operating income | $74.84B | $84.29B | $112.39B | $129.04B | +19.9% |
| Net income | $59.97B | $73.80B | $100.12B | $132.17B | +30.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.56 | $5.80 | $8.04 | $10.81 | +33.3% |
| EBITDA | $85.16B | $97.97B | $135.39B | $180.70B | +28.5% |
| R&D | $39.50B | $45.43B | $49.33B | $61.09B | +15.6% |
| SG&A | $42.29B | $44.34B | $42.00B | $50.18B | +5.9% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $319
- Fair value (mid)
- $429
- Fair value (high)
- $542
- Current price
- $397
- Upside to mid
- +11.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $211 | 15% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $517 | 30% |
| FCFF DCF | $585 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $793 | 10% |
| Forward earnings | $288 | 25% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $58.53 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $12.68 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$392
-1.4%
In the news
Latest news · GOOG
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.66T
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 26.6x
- P/S
- 11.4x
- P/B
- 10.1x
- EV / EBITDA
- 29.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 60.4%
- Operating margin
- 32.7%
- ROE
- 38.9%
- ROA
- 14.6%
- ROIC
- 28.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.20
- Current ratio
- 1.92
- Quick ratio
- 1.71
Trading
- Beta
- 1.27
- Volume
- 13,761,036
- Dividend yield
- 0.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +11.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$541.63
+40.7% from spot
AI directly accelerates search ad yields and Cloud enterprise revenue, allowing ROIC to expand materially despite the heavy upfront infrastructure capex cycle.
- AI native ad formats materially increase yield per query.
- Cloud operating margins reach parity with peak industry peers.
- Other Bets (Waymo) begin contributing meaningful free cash flow.
Base60%
Price target
$428.74
+11.4% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Revenue smoothly decelerates to long-term historical averages.
- 5-year capex normalization period.
- 20x terminal multiple reflecting wide moat durability.
Bear20%
Price target
$318.98
-17.1% from spot
Generative AI shifts user behavior, permanently lowering ad inventory and margins while capital intensity remains severely elevated to defend market position.
- Search market share loss to Gen-AI alternatives.
- Persistently elevated capex without matching revenue.
- Permanent structural operating margin compression.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $429.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $211 | -46.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $517 | +30.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $585 | +47.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $793 | +99.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $288 | -27.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $58.5 | -85.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $12.7 | -96.8% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $429 | +11.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($428.74). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $489 | $525 | $568 | $618 | $678 |
| 10.2% | $429 | $457 | $489 | $525 | $568 |
| 11.2% | $382 | $404 | $429 | $457 | $489 |
| 12.2% | $344 | $362 | $382 | $404 | $429 |
| 13.2% | $314 | $328 | $344 | $362 | $382 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment8.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
7.9/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core structural holding. Allocate up to maximum internal benchmark technology weight.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$397
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Re-evaluate if search market share shows consecutive quarterly declines or structural free cash flow turns permanently negative.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E26.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE38.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC28.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All GOOG indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
275
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 275 of 275 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on GOOG
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this GOOG report
What is the current GOOG stock rating?
Alphabet Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full GOOG analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/GOOG/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for GOOG?
The latest report frames GOOG around $319 to $542. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the GOOG page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyGOOG · Fair value $429+11.4% · Confidence 88/100