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LMT trades against a final fair-value range of $506.70-$782.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $507, high $783, with mid-point at $644.
Stock analysis

LMT fair value $507–$783

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-10Mis à jour: Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Cours
$506.51
▲ +137.92 (+27.23%)
Juste valeur
$644
$507–$783
Notation
Achat fort
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
+27.2%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$547.77
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$116.8B
P/E fwd 15.8

§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $644 with high case $783.
  • Implied upside of 27.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$644
Margin of safety
+21.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$506.51Price
Low $506.7
Mid $644.43
High $782.83

LMT trades against a final fair-value range of $506.70-$782.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for defense
    High switching costs for defense platforms
  • Intangible assets via classified clearances
    Intangible assets via classified clearances and patents
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated geopolitical tensions driving global defense modernization and procurement.

§2 Cas baissier

A sustained freeze or reduction in the U.S. defense budget combined with severe supply chain inflation, compressing operating margins below 9% and halting top-line growth.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Defense Budget Cuts

· Medium

Significant reduction in U.S. DoD spending prioritizing legacy system phase-outs over new procurement.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Fixed-Price Cost Overruns

· High

Chronic inflation and supply chain bottlenecks drive severe losses on legacy fixed-price contracts.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 Months

Geopolitical De-escalation

· Low

Unexpected rapid resolution of major global conflicts reducing international demand for tactical systems.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
3-5 Years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Operating margins persistently falling below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant delays in F-35 deliveries or block upgradesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow generation in consecutive quartersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratio dropping below 1.0xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned debt issuance to fund dividend payoutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices

Poste2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$65.98B$67.57B+2.4%$71.04B+5.1%$75.05B+5.6%+4.4%
Marge brute$8.29B$8.48B$6.93B$7.62B-2.8%
Résultat d'exploitation$8.35B$8.51B$7.01B$7.73B-2.5%
Résultat net$5.73B$6.92B+20.8%$5.34B-22.8%$5.02B-6.0%-4.3%
BPA (dilué)$21.66$27.55$22.31$21.49-0.3%
EBITDA$8.71B$10.44B$8.82B$8.73B+0.1%
R&D—————
SG&A—————

Scores de qualité

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
Composite qualité 0–9
Altman Z-score
3.33
Risque de faillite (>3 sûr)
OCF / Résultat net
1.71×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
19.6%
Rendement du capital investi
Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

LMT — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LMT looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $507 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $644 (range $507–$783), which implies roughly 27.2% upside to the midpoint.

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