Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)
NYSE: LOW · Real-Time Price · USD
$229
-1.69 (-0.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: LOW rated Hold
LOW is rated Hold at $229.20 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $206.63, implying -9.85% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$207 / share
$173 – $241
Upside to FV
-9.8%
from $229
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Current pricing aggressively discounts a V-shaped housing recovery.
Biggest risk
Housing Market Freeze
Duopoly structure provides a high floor, but upside is fully priced in.
Recommended action
Hold
LOW is rated Hold at $229.20 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $206.63, implying -9.85% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $128.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 86.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 6.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $11.8 | |
| Shares out | 560.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 19.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 16.8x | |
| Dividend | $4.80 (2.09%) | |
| Volume | 1,746,531 | |
| Beta | 0.90 | |
| Price target | $290 | +26.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Lowe's Companies, Inc.LOW
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 86.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 6.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $11.8
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.8x
- Market cap
- $128.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $96.25B | $97.06B | $86.38B | $83.67B | $86.29B | -2.7% |
| Gross profit | $32.06B | $32.26B | $28.84B | $27.88B | $28.89B | -2.6% |
| Operating income | $12.09B | $10.16B | $11.56B | $10.47B | $10.15B | -4.3% |
| Net income | $8.44B | $6.44B | $7.73B | $6.96B | $6.65B | -5.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.04 | $10.17 | $13.20 | $12.23 | $11.85 | -0.4% |
| EBITDA | $13.99B | $12.18B | $13.58B | $12.60B | $12.47B | -2.8% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $18.30B | $20.33B | $15.57B | $15.68B | $16.79B | -2.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $173
- Fair value (mid)
- $207
- Fair value (high)
- $241
- Current price
- $229
- Upside to mid
- -9.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $225 | 60% |
| Ddm | $81.01 | 5% |
| Forward earnings | $178 | 15% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $204 | 20% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$290
+26.6%
In the news
Latest news · LOW
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $128.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.8x
- P/S
- 1.5x
- PEG
- 4.15
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.5%
- Operating margin
- 11.8%
- ROA
- 13.1%
- ROIC
- 23.0%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 1.08
- Quick ratio
- 0.11
Trading
- Beta
- 0.90
- Volume
- 1,746,531
- Dividend yield
- 2.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -9.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$240.76
+5.0% from spot
A faster-than-expected normalization of interest rates revitalizes existing home sales and large-ticket DIY projects. Lowe's localized Pro fulfillment strategies and digital supply chain investments yield accelerated market share gains against Home Depot, driving durable operating margin expansion above 12%.
- Faster-than-expected interest rate normalization.
- Durable operating margin expansion above 12%.
- Accelerated Pro segment market share gains.
Base60%
Price target
$206.63
-9.8% from spot
Housing turnover remains muted due to elevated rates, offset by baseline repair-and-maintenance demand. Operating margins stabilize at 11.8%. Strong free cash flow bypasses accounting accrual noise, driving a $206.63 intrinsic value anchored predominantly by FCFF.
- Terminal revenue growth anchored at 2.5%.
- Operating margins capped at 11.8%.
- Sustained share count reduction via repurchases.
Bear20%
Price target
$172.68
-24.7% from spot
Prolonged high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures suppress consumer discretionary spending for an extended period. Lowe's struggles to gain meaningful traction in the Pro segment, leading to sustained flat or negative revenue growth and compressed margins.
- Prolonged housing market freeze.
- Fierce competition compresses margins below 10%.
- Earnings quality distortions materialize.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $207.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 60% | $225 | -1.8% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $81.0 | -64.7% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $178 | -22.3% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $204 | -11.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $207 | -9.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $257 | $292 | $338 | $362 | $362 |
| 6.6% | $207 | $229 | $257 | $292 | $338 |
| 7.6% | $173 | $188 | $207 | $229 | $257 |
| 8.6% | $149 | $160 | $173 | $188 | $207 |
| 9.6% | $130 | $139 | $149 | $160 | $173 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation6.0
Management6.7
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Maintain underweight or strict benchmark weighting. The extreme Beneish M-Score (8.81) failure introduces unquantifiable accounting risk, precluding a core overweight position.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$229
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate on sustained degradation in operating cash flow conversion, evidence of accounting restatements, or failure to defend the 11.8% operating margin floor.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E16.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC23
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All LOW indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
274
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 274 of 274 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on LOW
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this LOW report
What is the current LOW stock rating?
Lowe's Companies, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full LOW analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/LOW/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for LOW?
The latest report frames LOW around $173 to $241. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the LOW page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldLOW · Fair value $207-9.8% · Confidence 87/100