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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MCO — frequently asked questions
Is Moody's Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, MCO looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 441 USD versus our fair value of 327 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 400 USD. That implies roughly 25.8% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives MCO a fair value of 327 USD and a potential value of 400 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Moody's Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MCO now?
Our latest published rating for MCO, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell. Moody's Corporation looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 441 USD versus fair value of 327 USD; potential value is 400 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MCO?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Moody's Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MCO's rating?
Our latest published rating for MCO, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9.2/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 327 USD, the potential value of 400 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (441 USD).
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§1 RésuméEN
Réponse en 30 secondesSell
Prix par rapport à la valeur
Cours
$441.36
Juste valeur
$327.35
Valeur potentielle
$399.89
Au
2026-10-02
Pourquoi le scénario peut fonctionner
An acceleration in enterprise artificial intelligence adoption driving data center hyperscaler debt issuance well beyond the guided $800B pipeline, combined with rapid adoption of MA connected risk intelligence and agentic workflow integration, which could expand MA operating margins to the high-30s ahead of schedule and support our bull-case valuation of $399.89.
Ce qui changerait notre avis
A severe corporate bond issuance contraction causing MIS segment revenue to decline by 5.0% or more YoY over two consecutive quarters.
Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is rated Sell with a compositefair value of $327.35, implying -25.83% downside from the October 2, 2026 price of $441.36. While Moody's commands an exceptional economic moat through its debt ratings duopoly and expanding recurring analytics franchise, valuation at 24.27x forward earnings trades at a 34.83% premium to fair value, leaving investors vulnerable to debt issuance mix deceleration and higher refinancing costs on $7,620M of debt.4,5
Moody's Corporation is assigned a Sell rating with a of $327.35, indicating -25.83% implied return from the prevailing market price of $441.36 (a 34.83% price premium). Moody's trades at an elevated 24.27x , reflecting a notable premium over comparable infrastructure peers such as S&P Global at 19.11x and Intercontinental Exchange at 17.07x. Current market levels fully price in terminal compounding expectations while offering no against cyclical or multiple reversion risks.
Operational exposure remains heavily centered in Moody's Investors Service (MIS), which generated $4,317M in revenue in FY2025 (55.93% of the consolidated $7,718M total). While the first half of 2026 benefited from pull-forward activity among hyperscalers and frequent financial institution debt issuers, management confirmed that frequent issuer volume is structurally less revenue-rich. Consequently, management guided Q3 MIS revenue growth to low single digits, exposing consolidated earnings to negative operating leverage if issuance softens further.5,7,8
Core business quality remains robust: Moody's Analytics delivered $3,611M in FY2025 revenue, growing ARR in the high single digits with segment operating margins guided to expand toward the mid-to-high 30s by 2027. The company generated $2,901M in operating cash flow and $2,575M in free cash flow on capex of just $326M. Nevertheless, returning over 130% of FCF via up to $3B in 2026 capital returns faces constraints from $7,620M in debt requiring refinancing at higher yields (pre-tax cost of debt 5.78%).2,4,5,6,7,8
Our composite valuation of $327.35 synthesizes six models, balancing forward earnings ($366.64) and multi-stage moat fade ($339.00) against firm-level discounted cash flow ($229.94) and discounted earnings ($279.19). With market price at $441.36, valuation is stretched across historical and peer benchmarks, compelling a Sell recommendation.4
Entrenched Credit Ratings Duopoly
Moody's Investors Service maintains an entrenched regulatory and contractual duopoly with S&P Global, exercising 3% to 5% annual pricing power across global debt issuance ($4,317M in FY2025 revenue).8
High-Margin Recurring Analytics Software
Moody's Analytics generates high-retention enterprise risk software subscription revenue ($3,611M in FY2025) with segment operating margins guided to expand to the mid-to-high 30s by 2027.5,8
Sell. Moody's Corporation is an outstanding business, but its current market valuation of $441.36 stands at a 34.83% premium to our compositefair value of $327.35, implying -25.83% downside. Investors should trim or liquidate equity holdings.4
Présentation de l’entreprise
Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is a global integrated risk assessment firm providing credit ratings, research, risk tools, and financial data infrastructure. The company operates via two principal divisions: Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA). Consolidated revenue reached $7,718M in FY2025, generating operating income of $3,351M and net income of $2,459M.
Moody's Investors Service (MIS) provides credit ratings and monitoring for corporate, financial institution, structured finance, and public finance debt obligations. In FY2025, MIS generated $4,317M in revenue, accounting for 55.93% of consolidated top-line performance, maintaining an entrenched global ratings duopoly alongside S&P Global.
Moody's Analytics (MA) delivers enterprise risk software, credit modeling, KYC/compliance data, and economic research to banks, asset managers, insurers, and corporations. MA generated $3,611M in FY2025 revenue (46.79% of consolidated total), characterized by subscription recurring contracts, renewal rates above 93%, and steady margin expansion toward the mid-to-high 30% range.
§2 Cas baissierEN
Moody's high historical profitability and duopoly positioning mask severe operational leverage to debt issuance contractions. In FY2025, Moody's Investors Service (MIS) generated $4,317M in revenue, accounting for 55.93% of consolidated top-line performance. During the 2022 debt issuance contraction, consolidated operating profit fell from peak levels to $1,883M before rebounding to $3,351M in FY2025. Management acknowledged that 2026 issuance was heavily front-loaded into the first half due to hyperscaler borrowing pull-forward with a less revenue-rich fee mix, guiding Q3 MIS revenue growth to low single digits. Under a stress environment where credit spreads widen and corporate issuance declines by 5%, high fixed analytical costs create immediate margin compression. Concurrently, MCO carries $7,620M in total debt with $2,328M maturing over four years, which must be refinanced against a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78%, driving annual interest expense higher and dampening buyback capacity. When combined with valuation compression toward peer median forward P/E of 19.20x, the equity faces severe downside risk from prevailing market levels of $441.36.
Macroeconomic stagflation or spread volatility triggers corporate bond issuance deferrals, causing MIS revenue growth to contract year-over-year.
Comment cette thèse peut échouer
Severe corporate debt issuance freeze and recessionary spread widening
MIS generated $4,317M in FY2025 revenue (55.93% of consolidated total). During previous issuance freezes, operating income fell over 40%. A 5% contraction in MIS revenue triggers negative operating leverage across fixed analyst infrastructure.7,8
FV impact
-4.3%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
Les cinq évolutions qui affaibliraient notre thèse d’investissement.
Sharp contraction in corporate debt refinancing or syndicated loan issuance causing negative operating leverage across fixed ratings analyst infrastructure.
Actuel :High-single-digit guided full-year growth
Alerte si-5.0% YoY over two consecutive quarters
02
§3 Avantage concurrentielEN
Wide
Moody's Corporation operates one of the most durable business franchises in global financial market infrastructure, underpinned by a Wide economic moat across its two complementary operating divisions: Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA). In FY2025, consolidated revenue reached $7,718M, generating operating income of $3,351M (43.42% operating margin) and free cash flow of $2,575M.
The primary pillar of the moat resides in MIS, which generated $4,317M in FY2025 revenue. Together with S&P Global, Moody's forms an entrenched duopoly controlling the vast majority of global credit ratings. This structure is insulated by regulatory barriers, notably the SEC's Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) designation, as well as contractual debt covenants and investment mandates that legally require major corporate and sovereign bond issuances to obtain ratings from at least two established agencies. This creates structural pricing power, enabling MIS to implement regular 3-5% price increases while maintaining high operating leverage.
Complementing the rating franchise is Moody's Analytics (MA), which contributed $3,611M in FY2025 revenue. MA provides mission-critical risk scoring, enterprise compliance, and economic data integrated directly into bank IT systems and underwriting workflows. With customer renewal rates exceeding 93%, MA generates predictable, high-margin annual recurring revenue (ARR). Management has guided full-year 2026 MA segment operating margins to 34%-35% with targets reaching the mid- to high-30s by year-end 2027, further solidifying consolidated economic profitability.
Profit économique
Moody's earns an economic return on invested capital of 24.71%, substantially exceeding its computed WACC of 9.8184% and moderate cost of equity of 10.3426%. This 1,489 bps economic profit spread demonstrates that Moody's extracts superior economic rents from its asset-light business model across market cycles.2
9.2/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Regulatory Entrenchment and Duopoly Licensing (Intangible Assets) — Regulatory requirements (NRSRO designation) and institutional bond indentures requiring ratings from at least two major agencies establish an insurmountable barrier to entry, enabling MIS to generate $4,317M in FY2025 revenue (55.93% of consolidated total) and sustain operating margins exceeding 50% across market cycles.Wide
02Mission-Critical Software Integration and High Switching Costs —
Menaces connues pour l'avantage
Menace
Gravité
Calendrier
Atténuation
Corporate Bond Issuance Cyclicality and Transaction Volume Freezes
high
12-18 months
Counterbalanced by non-transaction relationship rating fees and recurring subscription revenue from Moody's Analytics ($3,611M in FY2025).8
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($327.35). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.5B after modeled reinvestment of $220.7M, with terminal value at 75.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case represents the modal operating trajectory where Moody's compounds earnings through mid-single-digit debt issuance growth, ratings pricing power, and high-single-digit ARR expansion in Moody's Analytics. Consensus FY2026 EPS and FY2027 EPS expectations are met as operating margins expand from FY2025 levels through FY2030. This performance synthesizes into a Base target of $327.35. With shares trading at $441.36 (as of $441.36 (as of 2026-10-02)) relative to Fair value of $327.35, the expected return is -25.8%.1,5,7
Global debt issuance grows at double-digit rates, accelerated by hyperscaler capex pipelines and private credit expansion.5
§7 Arbre de décision sur les résultatsEN
Dépassé
Upgrade the rating; Do not deploy fresh capital; verify whether the outperformance stemmed from non-recurring issuance pull-forward or durable enterprise subscription expansion, and monitor corporate debt pipeline indicators.
Déclencheur: Quarterly EPS and revenue exceeding consensus expectations driven by debt issuance acceleration
A quarterly earnings beat driven by pull-forward of debt issuance does not alter the fundamental valuation disconnect, as market pricing at $441.36 already discounts aggressive growth and multiple persistence well above peer medians; an upgrade to Reduce would be contingent on durable structural volume growth.
Conforme
Maintain Sell; Maintain position avoidance or continue staged liquidation; confirm that analytics annual recurring revenue and operating margins track management annual guidance checkpoints.
Déclencheur: Quarterly EPS and revenue meeting consensus expectations in line with seasonal issuance patterns
Meeting consensus confirms the baseline operating trajectory but leaves the stock vulnerable to valuation contraction given the substantial premium over Fair value of $327.35.
Manqué
Maintain Sell; Accelerate complete portfolio liquidation of any remaining exposure; re-assess ratings transaction volumes and check whether credit spreads or corporate issuance freezes are widening.
Déclencheur: Quarterly EPS or revenue falling short of consensus expectations due to issuance deferrals
An earnings miss confirms the risk of negative operating leverage within ratings and deceleration in enterprise software budgets, accelerating multiple compression toward peer medians.
Qualité des résultats
Moody's displays superior earnings quality characterized by robust cash flow conversion and low capital intensity. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $2,901M, exceeding GAAP net income of $2,459M. Free cash flow reached $2,575M on capital expenditures of $326M (representing low capital intensity against consolidated revenue of $7,718M). Earnings stability is enhanced by Moody's Analytics, where recurring subscription ARR generated $3,611M in FY2025 revenue. However, FY2025 stock-based compensation of $232M represents an ongoing non-cash dilution factor absorbing a portion of annual free cash flow, and ratings transaction revenues remain exposed to debt capital market issuance cycles.
Métriques à surveiller avant publication
01
Métrique:
Global Debt Issuance Volumes and MIS Revenue Cadence
ActuelManagement upgraded full-year 2026 global issuance outlook to mid-single-digit growth but guided Q3 MIS revenue growth to low single digits due to front-loaded first-half activity.
Pourquoi c'est important
MIS accounts for 55.93% of consolidated revenue ($4,317M in FY2025) and drives high operating leverage.
Cash flow dynamics reflect the asset-light nature of financial data and credit ratings. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $2,901M on net income of $2,459M, representing a cash conversion ratio of 117.9%. Free cash flow of $2,575M benefited from modest capex of $326M and D&A of $480M. Stock-based compensation of $232M represents an annual non-cash drag absorbing roughly 9% of FCF. Working capital dynamics are favorable due to upfront annual subscription billing in Moody's Analytics ($3,611M FY2025 revenue), supporting strong liquidity and sustained operational funding across cycles.
Moody's asset-light business model requires minimal reinvestment (reinvestment rate projected at 8.0% to 10.0% of NOPAT), enabling the company to sustain high returns on capital. The combination of duopoly ratings pricing power and high-margin recurring software subscriptions in Moody's Analytics supports sustained economic profit compounding.
Moody's earns an ROIC of 24.71%, generating an exceptional spread of 1,489 bps above its computed WACC of 9.8184% and 1,437 bps above its moderate cost of equity of 10.3426%.
Dernier chiffre d’affaires7,7 Md $USTCAC du chiffre d’affaires +8,8 %
Marge opérationnelle43,4 %10 périodes fiscales
Dernier flux de trésorerie disponible2,6 Md $USFY2025
Dette nette4,5 Md $USFY2025
Décomposition du compte de résultatComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Chiffre d'affaires7,7 Md $USCoût des ventes−2,5 Md $USMarge brute5,3 Md $USCharges d’exploitation−1,9 Md $USRésultat d'exploitation3,4 Md $USÉléments hors exploitation et impôts−892 M $USRésultat net2,5 Md $US
Données de l’historique financier
Chiffre d'affaires
7 718 000 000 $US
Coût des ventes
2 458 000 000 $US
Marge brute
5 260 000 000 $US
Charges d’exploitation
1 909 000 000 $US
Résultat d'exploitation
3 351 000 000 $US
Éléments hors exploitation et impôts
-892 000 000 $US
Résultat net
2 459 000 000 $US
Aperçu du bilanComment les actifs publiés sont détenus et financés pour la période sélectionnée.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composition des actifsFinancé par
Total de l’actif15,8 Md $USTrésorerie2,4 Md $USActifs courants5,2 Md $USTotal du passif11,6 Md $USPassifs courants3 Md $USCapitaux propres4,2 Md $US
Données de ventilation du bilan
Total de l’actif
15 830 000 000 $US
Trésorerie
2 384 000 000 $US
Actifs courants
5 186 000 000 $US
Total du passif
11 625 000 000 $US
Passifs courants
2 981 000 000 $US
Capitaux propres
4 205 000 000 $US
Passerelle des flux de trésorerieComment le flux de trésorerie d’exploitation est devenu du flux de trésorerie disponible en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Rapprochement des flux d’exploitation
Résultat net2,5 Md $USDotations aux amortissements+480 M $USRémunération en actions+232 M $USAutres ajustements opérationnels−270 M $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation2,9 Md $US
Rapprochement de la trésorerie d’ouverture à la clôture
Trésorerie d’ouverture2,4 Md $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation+2,9 Md $USFlux d’investissement+2 M $USFlux de financement−3,1 Md $USEffet de change+136 M $USTrésorerie de clôture2,4 Md $US
2,9 Md $US − 326 M $USFlux de trésorerie disponible 2,6 Md $US
Données de la passerelle des flux de trésorerie
Résultat net
2 459 000 000 $US
Entrées d’exploitation
3 171 000 000 $US
Dotations aux amortissements
480 000 000 $US
Rémunération en actions
232 000 000 $US
Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation
2 901 000 000 $US
Sorties d’exploitation
270 000 000 $US
Trésorerie disponible
5 447 000 000 $US
Trésorerie d’ouverture
2 408 000 000 $US
Entrées d’investissement
2 000 000 $US
Effet de change
136 000 000 $US
Sorties de financement
3 063 000 000 $US
Rachats d’actions
1 607 000 000 $US
Dividendes versés
701 000 000 $US
Remboursement net de dette
700 000 000 $US
Autres activités de financement
55 000 000 $US
Trésorerie de clôture
2 384 000 000 $US
Flux d’investissement
2 000 000 $US
Flux de financement
-3 063 000 000 $US
Chiffre d’affaires et résultatsComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.
Trésorerie et detteLiquidités disponibles face à l’endettement total.
Génération de trésorerieFlux de trésorerie d’exploitation comparé au flux de trésorerie disponible.
RentabilitéÉvolution des marges brute, opérationnelle et nette.
Données financières ponctuelles utilisées dans l’analyse du 2026-10-03.
Moody's Corporation (MCO) trades at 24.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 20.4x compares with a peer median of 16.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: S&P Global Inc., Nasdaq Inc., Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and MSCI Inc., as of 2026-10-03.
§10 Secteur et cycleEN
Phase du cycle
Expansion
Financial services industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.4% and capex-to-depreciation is 0.9x, demonstrating structurally low asset intensity across peers. Global debt issuance is projected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate in 2026, supported by enterprise tech capex pipelines, though capacity and lead-time metrics remain unavailable, indicating that the industry cycle is demand-led and evidence-limited.5
Cycle haussier
In an expansionary credit cycle, corporate bond refinancing surges alongside massive hyperscaler and private credit debt issuance, driving double-digit transaction volume growth in MIS. High operating leverage transmits incremental ratings revenue directly into operating margins, while financial institutions expand risk analytics subscriptions to comply with regulatory underwriting frameworks.
Cycle baissier
A downturn in debt capital markets triggered by rising credit default spreads or prolonged high interest rates leads corporate issuers to postpone bond financing, causing MIS transaction revenue to drop sharply as seen in FY2022 when operating income fell to $1,883M. Under this environment, bank budget contractions compress enterprise analytics ARR growth and slow cross-sell momentum.
Tendances séculaires
Tendance
Impact
Note
Corporate Debt Maturity Wall and Structured Refinancing Mandates
positive
Multi-trillion dollar global corporate debt maturity walls require refinancing over the 2026-2030 horizon, providing durable volume for MIS ratings.
AI Integration and Agentic Enterprise Risk Workflows
positive
Enterprise adoption of AI-ready compliance, entity verification, and risk models expands Moody's Analytics subscription TAM and pricing leverage.
Positionnement
Moody's maintains a premier duopoly position alongside S&P Global, supported by global regulatory designations, widespread benchmark indexing, and deep client integration. With FY2025 operating margin of 43.42%, Moody's profitability compares favorably with peers such as S&P Global (44.79% operating margin) and Intercontinental Exchange (52.63% operating margin), while Moody's Analytics provides recurring revenue resilience that pure-play transaction peers lack.3,7
§11 Gestion de positionEN
Taille de position
0%
Moody's October 2, 2026 share price of $441.36 trades at a 34.8% premium to compositefair value of $327.35, yielding an implied return of -25.8%. Trading at 24.27x forward P/E, MCO sits well above peer medians (SPGI 19.11x, ICE 17.07x), creating severe vulnerability to debt issuance normalization and interest rate pressure. Under the committee's Sell rating directive, position weight must be zero.3,4
Risque
Capital preservation is paramount given that MCO at $441.36 carries an implied return of -25.8% to compositefair value of $327.35. The committee's Sell rating instructs full position avoidance. Primary risk factors include high exposure to debt capital market issuance cycles ($4,317M MIS revenue in FY2025), $7,620M in debt facing higher refinancing rates against a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78%, and multiple contraction risk toward peer medians. Any residual holdings should be liquidated into market strength.
Tranches d'entrée
Niveau
Action
Pourquoi
$441.36 (October 2, 2026 share price)
Avoid entry; liquidate or trim existing long positions
The October 2, 2026 share price of $441.36 reflects a 34.8% premium over compositefair value of $327.35, offering an implied return of -25.8%.
$327.35 (Composite fair value midpoint)
Re-evaluate fundamentals; do not initiate without committee upgrade
Tranches de sortie
Niveau
Action
$441.36 (October 2, 2026 share price)
Immediate sale / Full position liquidation
$450.00 - $480.00 (Near 50-day average of $481.59)
At $441.36, MCO trades at a 34.83% premium to intrinsic fair value of $327.35 and 24.27x forward P/E. Value investors should avoid the stock due to the complete lack of a margin of safety.4
Growth Investor
Avoid
While consensus models FY2027 revenue of $8,888M and EPS of $18.92, management guidance projects high single-digit revenue growth with MIS Q3 growth decelerating to low single digits. At a PEG ratio of 2.02x, growth investors can find superior risk-adjusted growth in peers such as SPGI (PEG 1.47x).1,3,5
Income / Dividend Investor
Avoid
Despite generating $2,575M in FY2025 FCF and guiding up to $3B in capital returns, Moody's prioritizes share buybacks over dividends, with dividend yield below 1.0%. With $7,620M in debt facing higher coupon refinancing, income-focused investors should look elsewhere.4,5,6
§14 Recommandation finaleEN
Action
Vendre
We recommend a Sell on Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). At $441.36, the stock trades at an implied return of -25.83% relative to our compositefair value of $327.35, or a 34.83% price premium. Moody's trades at 24.27x forward P/E, substantially above peer medians including SPGI at 19.11x and ICE at 17.07x, leaving no safety margin for multiple contraction.3,4
While Moody's wide moat and high cash conversion remain premier franchise attributes, early 2026 issuance tailwinds are dissipating. Management has indicated that 2026 issuance was heavily front-loaded with a less lucrative issuer mix, leading to guided Q3 MIS revenue growth of low single digits. Additionally, refinancing $2,328M of scheduled maturities on $7,620M of total debt at prevailing interest rates (pre-tax cost of debt 5.78%) will raise annual interest expense and restrict net buyback capacity.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In the Bear scenario, widening credit spreads and volatile interest rate conditions cause corporate borrowers to defer debt issuances, triggering negative operational leverage across fixed ratings analyst infrastructure. Moody's Investors Service transaction revenue falls, mimicking previous downcycles where operating income declined significantly. Simultaneously, enterprise banking client budget scrutiny slows Moody's Analytics software seat expansions and cross-selling, capping segment margins. Maturing debt over multi-year periods must be refinanced at prevailing rates above historical low coupons, increasing annual interest costs against total debt obligations. As growth decelerates, Moody's valuation multiple compresses toward peer medians, causing severe capital impairment from prevailing share levels.
MCO currently trades at 24.27x forward P/E while direct peer SPGI trades at 19.11x and ICE trades at 17.07x. Compression to peer median forward P/E of 19.20x represents an immediate 20.9% multiple derating.3,4
FV impact
-7.8%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Cost inflation and technology investment capping operating profitability
Consolidated operating margin was 43.42% in FY2025 and modeled to reach 44.50%. Cloud infrastructure, AI agent integration, and wage inflation could compress margins by 300 bps below base projections.5,7
FV impact
-0.8%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 24 months
Persistent stagflation and elevated risk-free rates lifting cost of capital
Multiple derating driven by investor rotation out of premium-multiple compounders as debt issuance and earnings growth normalize toward industry medians.
Working capital drag or elevated software capitalization eroding free cash flow generation and curtailing capital return capacity.
Actuel :117.9% in FY2025 ($2,901M OCF vs $2,459M net income)
Alerte siBelow 85% on a trailing twelve-month basis
Moody's Analytics embeds proprietary credit risk models, KYC/compliance screening, and regulatory reporting tools directly into core enterprise banking workflows, driving retention rates exceeding 93% and delivering $3,611M in FY2025 recurring subscription-based revenue.
Wide
03Global Financial Benchmark Network Effects — Institutional fixed-income mandates worldwide specify Moody's and S&P ratings as mandatory benchmark investment criteria, creating self-reinforcing network effects where debt issuers cannot access global institutional capital pools without ratings from the duopoly.Moderate
Regulatory Reforms Diminishing NRSRO Mandates
medium
3-5 years
Institutional investor mandates, private debt covenants, and century-long default databases make substitution contractually and practically unviable for institutional asset managers.
Enterprise Software Spending Scrutiny in Banking and FinTech
low
12-24 months
MA tools are deeply integrated into mandatory regulatory compliance frameworks (CECL, Basel III, AML/KYC), making them essential non-discretionary expenses.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (62,53 $US) plus discounted terminal value (194 $US) minus signed per current share (26,25 $US) equals the 230 $US lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
MA operating margin expands toward targeted levels ahead of schedule on high-single-digit ARR growth.5
MCO maintains a premium forward valuation multiple, supported by authorized share repurchases.5
In the Bull scenario, corporate debt refinancing surges above expectations, driven by multi-year corporate debt maturity walls, private credit ratings demand, and massive hyperscaler debt issuance pipelines. MIS transaction revenue accelerates to double-digit growth, driving operating leverage across fixed analyst overhead. Simultaneously, enterprise adoption of AI compliance and automated risk scoring accelerates Moody's Analytics ARR, driving segment margins toward the high thirties ahead of management's timeline. Robust cash flow generation facilitates aggressive share repurchases, supporting the upper bound of intrinsic fair value at $399.89.5
Moody's capital allocation balances disciplined organic reinvestment with aggressive shareholder return. In FY2025, Moody's generated $2,901M in operating cash flow and deployed only $326M into capital expenditures (4.2% of revenue), yielding $2,575M in free cash flow. Management committed up to $3B in 2026 capital returns, representing over 130% of FCF. Diluted shares have decreased from 187.9M in FY2021 to 179.9M in FY2025. Total debt stands at $7,620M against $2,384M in cash. With $2,328M in debt maturing through 2029 ($571M in Year 1) and pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78%, capital return velocity beyond 2026 will need to align with organic FCF to maintain balance sheet strength.
Operating cash flow reached $2,901M in FY2025 compared to GAAP net income of $2,459M, delivering a conversion rate of 117.9%.
Asset-light operations and negative working capital dynamics allow Moody's to convert over 100% of accounting profits into distributable free cash flow.
Debt Service and Refinancing Wall Against High Total Leverage
Moody's maintains $7,620M in total debt with pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78% and $2,328M due within four years.
While annual FCF of $2,575M provides ample interest coverage, refinancing low-coupon maturities at prevailing yields will elevate interest costs and constrain capital returns beyond 2026.
Consolidated EBIT expanded to $3,351M in FY2025 on $7,718M revenue (43.42% margin), recovering from $1,883M during the 2022 debt issuance trough.
Incremental debt issuance generates high operational leverage, while Moody's Analytics margin progression toward the mid-to-high 30s buffers earnings against cyclical downturns.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.ICE
Cours / juste valeur
Juste valeur133,03 $USReport-date price154,31 $US
Date d’évaluation
Avantage concurrentielWide
Score d’investissement62 / 100
MSCI Inc.MSCI
Cours / juste valeur
Juste valeur388,1 $USReport-date price542,39 $US
Date d’évaluation
Avantage concurrentielWide
Score d’investissement63 / 100
Marge
MCO
Moody's Corporation
$76.4B
24.3x
9.4x
20.4x
76.9%
—
SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
$113.9B
19.1x
7.1x
16.0x
14.3%
44.8%
NDAQ
Nasdaq Inc.
$50.5B
19.3x
9.0x
17.7x
16.5%
49.3%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
$84.3B
17.1x
8.0x
15.5x
14.1%
52.6%
MSCI
MSCI Inc.
$39.0B
23.8x
11.7x
23.0x
—
56.3%
Growth of Private Credit and Regulatory Transparency Scrutiny
positive
Expansion of private credit assets drives institutional demand for standardized risk assessment, rating transparency, and insurance regulatory compliance.
At compositefair value of $327.35, risk-reward becomes balanced, but initiation remains prohibited under the Sell directive until re-underwriting occurs.
Monitor for potential re-underwriting; maintain Sell until formal reassessment
