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PEP trades against a final fair-value range of $142.66-$206.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $206, with mid-point at $174.
Stock analysis

PEP fair value $143–$206

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-08Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Cours
$154.62
▲ +19.79 (+12.80%)
Juste valeur
$174
$143–$206
Notation
Acheter
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
+12.8%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$148.25
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$211.4B
P/E fwd 16.9
Repli en anglaisFR
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $174 with high case $206.
  • Implied upside of 12.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$174
Margin of safety
+11.3%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$154.62Price
Low $142.66
Mid $174.41
High $206.45

PEP trades against a final fair-value range of $142.66-$206.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Deep global distribution networks covering
    Deep global distribution networks covering developed and emerging markets.
  • Immense brand equity and pricing
    Immense brand equity and pricing power across both beverage and snack portfolios.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation synthesis intentionally anchors heavily on Forward Earnings to mitigate terminal value dominance.

§2 Cas baissier

A sustained macroeconomic downturn coupled with accelerated adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs leads to structural volume declines and an inability to offset cost inflation through pricing, heavily compressing operating margins and driving free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. below historical norms.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

GLP-1 Widespread Adoption

· Medium

Mass adoption of appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs permanently reduces per-capita consumption of high-calorie snacks and sugary beverages, breaking historical volume baselines.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 years

Total Loss of Pricing Power

· Low

Consumer fatigue over successive price hikes forces aggressive discounting and promotional activity to defend market share against private label brands, destroying gross margins.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 years

Supply Chain and Input Cost Shock

· Medium

Extreme agricultural commodity inflation and localized supply chain disruptions structurally elevate the cost base beyond what can be passed to consumers, permanently compressing operating margins.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Consecutive quarters of negative organic volume growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression exceeding 150 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Substantial shift in market share to private label brands.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant downward revisions in forward internal valuation cross-checks earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned increases in promotional spend to clear inventory.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3TCAC
Période2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$86.39B$91.47B$91.85B$93.93B+2.8%
Marge brute$45.82B$49.59B$50.11B$50.86B+3.5%
Résultat d'exploitation$11.36B$12.91B$12.92B$13.49B+5.9%
Résultat net$8.91B$9.07B$9.58B$8.24B-2.6%
BPA (dilué)$6.42$6.56$6.95$6.00-2.2%
EBITDA$14.92B$15.75B$16.68B$15.54B+1.4%
R&D—————
SG&A$34.46B$36.68B$37.19B$37.37B+2.7%

Scores de qualité

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
Composite qualité 0–9
Altman Z-score
3.59
Risque de faillite (>3 sûr)
Beneish M-score
-2.56
Risque de manipulation des résultats
OCF / Résultat net
1.47×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
12.8%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

PEP income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of PEP (PEP) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

PEP — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PEP looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $155 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $174 (range $143–$206), which implies roughly 12.8% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-dividend