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PYPL trades against a final fair-value range of $76.10-$124.14, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $76.1, high $124, with mid-point at $100.
Stock analysis

PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc. fair value $100–$124

PYPL
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-09Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Financials
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Cours
$45.37
▲ +54.72 (+120.61%)
Juste valeur
$100
$100–$124
Notation
Achat fort
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
+120.6%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$85.08
buy below · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$40.0B
P/E fwd 7.8
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $100 with high case $124.
  • Implied upside of 120.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 6/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$100
Margin of safety
+54.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$45.37Price
FV $100.09
High $124.14

PYPL trades against a final fair-value range of $76.10-$124.14, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Two-sided global network scale with
    Two-sided global network scale with over 400 million active accounts.
  • Deep, legacy merchant integrations via
    Deep, legacy merchant integrations via core checkout and Braintree.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is severely mispricing PayPal with a 7.8x forward P/E, a multiple typical of a credit-risk heavy lender rather than an asset-light transaction network.

§2 Cas baissier

A rapid macroeconomic consumption contraction coincides with accelerated Apple Pay market share gains, severely compressing high-margin branded checkout volume. PayPal is forced to slash Braintree pricing to retain key enterprise merchants, collapsing transaction margin dollars. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. turns negative, breaking the $5B free cash flow floor and abruptly terminating the share repurchase thesis.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Apple Pay iOS Dominance

· High

Apple heavily restricts iOS payment routing or disadvantages third-party wallets, structurally locking PayPal out of mobile web checkout growth.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Braintree Commoditization

· Medium

Adyen and Stripe trigger a race to zero on unbranded processing fees, obliterating PayPal's enterprise segment transaction margins permanently.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Fastlane SMB Failure

· Medium

Failure to achieve meaningful penetration with the Fastlane product leaves PayPal's core highly profitable SMB segment vulnerable to Shop Pay.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-18 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Branded checkout volume growth remains negative year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Overall transaction margin declines below 40% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Active account churn accelerates past low-single digits globally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow drops below $4.0B annualized, threatening the buyback cadence.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins breach the 15% absolute floor despite headcount reductions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3TCAC
Période2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$27.52B$29.77B$31.80B$33.17B+6.4%
Marge brute$13.77B$13.70B$14.66B$15.47B+3.9%
Résultat d'exploitation$4.04B$4.94B$5.76B$6.40B+16.5%
Résultat net$2.42B$4.25B$4.15B$5.23B+29.3%
BPA (dilué)$2.09$3.84$3.99$5.41+37.3%
EBITDA$4.99B$6.83B$6.74B$7.70B+15.6%
R&D$3.25B$2.97B$2.98B$3.10B-1.6%
SG&A$4.36B$3.87B$4.15B$4.26B-0.7%

Scores de qualité

Piotroski F-score
9 / 9
Composite qualité 0–9
Altman Z-score
1.86
Risque de faillite (>3 sûr)
Beneish M-score
-2.54
Risque de manipulation des résultats
OCF / Résultat net
1.23×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
17.6%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

PYPL — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PYPL looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $45.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $100 (range $76.1–$124), which implies roughly 120.6% upside to the midpoint.

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