Apple Inc. (AAPL)
NASDAQ: AAPL · Real-Time Price · USD
$293
+5.89 (+2.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AAPL rated Sell
AAPL is rated Sell at $287.44 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $199.90, implying -30.46% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$200 / share
$141 – $259
Upside to FV
-30.5%
from $293
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Market prices an unbroken AI super-cycle and perpetual >30x multiples.
Biggest risk
Regulatory Disruption of Services
Structural growth fade is mathematically unavoidable at this scale.
Recommended action
Sell
AAPL is rated Sell at $287.44 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $199.90, implying -30.46% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $4.22T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 451.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 122.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.25 | |
| Shares out | 14.7B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 35.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 30.1x | |
| Dividend | $1.04 (0.35%) | |
| Volume | 52,711,939 | |
| Beta | 1.06 | |
| Price target | $303 | +3.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Apple Inc.AAPL
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 451.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 122.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.25
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 30.1x
- Market cap
- $4.22T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $394.33B | $383.29B | $391.04B | $416.16B | +1.8% |
| Gross profit | $170.78B | $169.15B | $180.68B | $195.20B | +4.6% |
| Operating income | $119.44B | $114.30B | $123.22B | $133.05B | +3.7% |
| Net income | $99.80B | $97.00B | $93.74B | $112.01B | +3.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.11 | $6.13 | $6.08 | $7.46 | +6.9% |
| EBITDA | $130.54B | $125.82B | $134.66B | $144.75B | +3.5% |
| R&D | $26.25B | $29.92B | $31.37B | $34.55B | +9.6% |
| SG&A | $25.09B | $24.93B | $26.10B | $27.60B | +3.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $141
- Fair value (mid)
- $200
- Fair value (high)
- $259
- Current price
- $293
- Upside to mid
- -30.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $208 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $254 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $197 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $156 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $167 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $54.30 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$303
+3.4%
In the news
Latest news · AAPL
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.22T
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 30.1x
- P/S
- 9.5x
- P/B
- 40.4x
- PEG
- 2.88
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 47.9%
- Operating margin
- 32.6%
- ROE
- 141.5%
- ROA
- 26.2%
- ROIC
- 104.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.80
- Current ratio
- 1.07
- Quick ratio
- 0.91
Trading
- Beta
- 1.06
- Volume
- 52,711,939
- Dividend yield
- 0.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -30.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$258.93
-9.9% from spot
Accelerated hardware replacement cycles catalyzed by edge-AI (Apple Intelligence), sustained margin expansion as Services dominate the revenue mix, and successful entry into new adjacent wearables/health markets.
- Edge-AI drives rapid, sustained hardware replacement.
- Services revenue growth re-accelerates >15%.
- Terminal multiple holds >26x.
Base60%
Price target
$199.90
-30.5% from spot
Apple represents the quintessential mature compounder. The company leverages unparalleled ecosystem lock-in to drive high-margin Services growth alongside a massive, stable hardware installed base. Extreme free cash flow generation and a relentless share repurchase program provide a formidable floor to intrinsic value per share.
- Revenue fades systematically to 4% terminal growth.
- Terminal multiple compresses to 22x.
- Aggressive share repurchases continue at $90B/year.
Bear20%
Price target
$141.47
-50.8% from spot
Consumer hardware saturation elongates upgrade cycles, antitrust regulatory actions compromise App Store fee structures, and geopolitical tensions strain supply chain efficiency and access to key international markets.
- Hardware upgrade cycles push past 4.5 years.
- App Store fee structures forcibly reduced by regulators.
- Terminal multiple compresses to 18x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $200.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $208 | -29.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $254 | -13.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $197 | -32.7% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $156 | -46.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $167 | -42.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $54.3 | -81.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $200 | -30.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $240 | $266 | $299 | $341 | $350 |
| 8.0% | $200 | $218 | $240 | $266 | $299 |
| 9.0% | $171 | $185 | $200 | $218 | $240 |
| 10.0% | $150 | $160 | $171 | $185 | $200 |
| 11.0% | $133 | $141 | $150 | $160 | $171 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation4.5
Management8.0
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.5
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
6.7/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Maximum underweight / avoid. Do not deploy fresh capital at current levels.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$293
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim or exit positions at $287+. Current valuation requires perpetual multiple expansion and ignores mature growth constraints.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E30.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE141.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC104.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All AAPL indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
287
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 287 of 287 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on AAPL
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AAPL report
What is the current AAPL stock rating?
Apple Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AAPL analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AAPL/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AAPL?
The latest report frames AAPL around $141 to $259. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AAPL page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellAAPL · Fair value $200-30.5% · Confidence 88/100