AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
NYSE: ABBV · Real-Time Price · USD
$202
-1.16 (-0.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ABBV rated Hold
Hold. Current price of $202.71 fully reflects the transition to the next-generation pipeline.
Fair value (mid)
$204 / share
$153 – $255
Upside to FV
+0.5%
from $202
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Immunology pipeline completely backfills Humira gap by 2025. Aesthetics rebounds with macro recovery. Terminal multiple expands to 17x on return to growth.
Biggest risk
Accelerated Humira Erosion
Accelerated Humira Erosion: Biosimilar competition erodes Humira revenues significantly faster than projected, compressing margins.
Recommended action
Hold
Hold. The current valuation perfectly balances the robust immunology transition against the ongoing Humira patent cliff. Collect the dividend while monitoring pipeline execution.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $358.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 62.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 3.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.03 | |
| Shares out | 1.8B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 99.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 12.5x | |
| Dividend | $6.92 (3.43%) | |
| Volume | 4,915,515 | |
| Beta | 0.30 | |
| Price target | $255 | +26.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 62.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 3.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.03
- P/E (trailing)
- 99.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 12.5x
- Market cap
- $358.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $58.05B | $54.32B | $56.33B | $61.16B | +1.8% |
| Gross profit | $40.64B | $33.90B | $39.43B | $42.96B | +1.9% |
| Operating income | $18.81B | $13.54B | $11.89B | $20.09B | +2.2% |
| Net income | $11.84B | $4.86B | $4.28B | $4.23B | -29.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.63 | $2.72 | $2.39 | $2.36 | -29.1% |
| EBITDA | $24.17B | $17.17B | $14.91B | $17.63B | -10.0% |
| R&D | $6.51B | $7.68B | $12.79B | $9.10B | +11.8% |
| SG&A | $15.26B | $12.87B | $14.75B | $14.01B | -2.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $153
- Fair value (mid)
- $204
- Fair value (high)
- $255
- Current price
- $202
- Upside to mid
- +0.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $205 | 50% |
| Owner earnings | $211 | 25% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $207 | 15% |
| Ddm | $174 | 10% |
| Forward earnings | $29.71 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $61.03 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $66.49 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$255
+26.4%
In the news
Latest news · ABBV
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $358.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 99.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 12.5x
- P/S
- 5.7x
- PEG
- 0.88
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.0%
- Operating margin
- 34.8%
- ROA
- 10.0%
- ROIC
- 22.2%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 0.80
- Quick ratio
- 0.52
Trading
- Beta
- 0.30
- Volume
- 4,915,515
- Dividend yield
- 3.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +0.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$254.75
+25.7% from spot
Immunology pipeline completely backfills Humira gap by 2025. Aesthetics rebounds with macro recovery. Terminal multiple expands to 17x on return to growth.
- Terminal Multiple: 17x
- Revenue CAGR (5y): 4%
- Operating Margin: 35%
Base60%
Price target
$203.67
+0.5% from spot
Humira erosion proceeds as guided. Skyrizi and Rinvoq deliver steady growth. The firm maintains $13B+ FCF, supporting the dividend at a 15x multiple.
- Terminal Multiple: 15x
- Revenue CAGR (5y): 2.5%
- Operating Margin: 32%
Bear20%
Price target
$152.59
-24.7% from spot
Biosimilars decimate Humira cash flows. Pipeline execution falters, triggering a multiple contraction to 12x as the dividend appears stressed.
- Terminal Multiple: 12x
- Revenue CAGR (5y): 0%
- Operating Margin: 28%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $204.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 50% | $205 | +1.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $211 | +4.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 15% | $207 | +2.5% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $174 | -13.7% | |
| Forward earnings | 0% | $29.7 | -85.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $61.0 | -69.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $66.5 | -67.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $204 | +0.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | $276 | $335 | $358 | $358 | $358 |
| 5.4% | $205 | $235 | $276 | $335 | $358 |
| 6.4% | $163 | $181 | $205 | $235 | $276 |
| 7.4% | $135 | $148 | $163 | $181 | $205 |
| 8.4% | $115 | $124 | $135 | $148 | $163 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation1.5
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability7.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
5.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core income holding. Size at 3-5% of equity portfolio.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$202
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim above $240 or if the dividend becomes mathematically uncovered by free cash flow.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E12.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC22.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ABBV indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
243
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 243 of 243 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ABBV
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ABBV report
What is the current ABBV stock rating?
AbbVie Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ABBV analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ABBV/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ABBV?
The latest report frames ABBV around $153 to $255. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ABBV page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldABBV · Fair value $204+0.5% · Confidence 88/100