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Airbnb remains the dominant global platform for alternative accommodations, boasting exceptional unit economics and a durable wide moat. However, normalizing travel demand and regulatory pressures limit near-term upside at current multiples. Fair value range: low $115, high $164, with mid-point at $139.
Stock analysis

ABNB fair value $115–$164

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-04-27अगला अद्यतन: 2026-07-27Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$141.06
▲ +3.94 (+2.79%)
उचित मूल्य
$139
$115–$164
रेटिंग
होल्ड
confidence 80/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+2.8%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$117.81
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
84.57B
P/E fwd 24.5
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $139 with high case $164.
  • Implied upside of 2.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 8/10 · confidence 80/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$139
Margin of safety
-1.8%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
8/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$141.06Price
Low $115.35
Mid $138.6
High $163.95

Airbnb remains the dominant global platform for alternative accommodations, boasting exceptional unit economics and a durable wide moat. However, normalizing travel demand and regulatory pressures limit near-term upside at current multiples.

  • Unrivaled Network Effects
    A self-reinforcing loop of hosts and guests creates insurmountable barriers for sub-scale competitors.
  • Asset-Light Cash Generation
    Operating margins near 20% and minimal capex drive >$4B in annual free cash flow, fueling buybacks.

§2 बेयर केस

Regulatory crackdowns on short-term rentals in major cities restrict supply, while macro-economic softness compresses consumer travel budgets, driving multiple compression.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Global Regulatory Squeeze

15%· Low

Major metros ban or severely restrict STRs

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 mos
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Nights and Experiences Booked Growth8%<5%

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड

लाइन आइटम202320242025
राजस्व$9.92B$11.10B+11.9%$12.24B
परिचालन आय$1.52B$2.55B$2.54B

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Accounting
Clean
Strong FCF conversion
व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

हर कवर किए गए टिकर के लिए पूर्ण रिपोर्ट
रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
वॉचलिस्ट ब्रीफ़िंग और रेटिंग-परिवर्तन अलर्ट
किसी भी भाषा में PDF + DOCX निर्यात
मुफ़्त ट्रायल शुरू करें
कभी भी रद्द करें।
REVERSE DCF FAQ

ABNB reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for ABNB (ABNB) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.
FAQ

ABNB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABNB trades close to fair value. The current price is $141 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $139 (range $115–$164), which implies roughly 2.8% upside to the midpoint.
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