The Boeing Company (BA)
NYSE: BA · Real-Time Price · USD
$237
+6.33 (+2.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: BA rated Sell
BA is rated Sell at $237.36 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $41.62, implying -82.47% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100.
Fair value (mid)
$41.6 / share
$31.9 – $55.0
Upside to FV
-82.5%
from $237
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Market internal valuation cross-checks is aggressively pricing in a flawless, immediate turnaround to pre-crisis duopoly margins.
Biggest risk
Severe FAA Production Cap Extension
Severe FAA Production Cap Extension: FAA permanently caps or significantly reduces 737 MAX production rates below 38 per month due to ongoing safety culture and quality control failures.
Recommended action
Sell
BA is rated Sell at $237.36 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $41.62, implying -82.47% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $187.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 92.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.50 | |
| Shares out | 788.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 95.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 55.3x | |
| Volume | 7,603,931 | |
| Beta | 1.21 | |
| Price target | $270 | +13.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
The Boeing CompanyBA
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 92.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.50
- P/E (trailing)
- 95.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 55.3x
- Market cap
- $187.1B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $66.61B | $77.79B | $66.52B | $89.46B | +10.3% |
| Gross profit | $3.53B | $7.72B | $-1.99B | $4.29B | +6.7% |
| Operating income | $-3.51B | $-821.0M | $-10.82B | $-5.42B | — |
| Net income | $-4.94B | $-2.22B | $-11.82B | $2.24B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-8.30 | $-3.67 | $-18.36 | $2.48 | — |
| EBITDA | $-482.0M | $2.32B | $-7.65B | $7.36B | — |
| R&D | $2.85B | $3.38B | $3.81B | $3.62B | +8.2% |
| SG&A | $4.19B | $5.17B | $5.02B | $6.09B | +13.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $31.9
- Fair value (mid)
- $41.6
- Fair value (high)
- $55.0
- Current price
- $237
- Upside to mid
- -82.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $33.98 | 70% |
| Forward earnings | $44.56 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $134 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $51.92 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$270
+13.6%
In the news
Latest news · BA
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $187.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 95.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 55.3x
- P/S
- 2.0x
- P/B
- 31.3x
- PEG
- 4.50
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 4.8%
- Operating margin
- -5.8%
- ROE
- 169.9%
- ROA
- -2.1%
- ROIC
- -13.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 8.29
- Current ratio
- 1.18
- Quick ratio
- 0.32
Trading
- Beta
- 1.21
- Volume
- 7,603,931
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -81.2% expected return to fair value
Bull10%
Price target
$54.95
-76.8% from spot
Rapid stabilization of production rates, swift resolution of regulatory hurdles, and margin expansion driven by operating leverage and high-margin services growth. Significant deleveraging occurs as free cash flow turns consistently positive.
- Flawless execution of turnaround plan.
- Rapid return to historical peak margins.
Base40%
Price target
$41.62
-82.5% from spot
Gradual recovery in delivery volumes anchored to private estimate references. Margins slowly improve toward the 7.0% target over five years, but lingering inefficiencies and debt service heavily constrain near-term cash generation.
- Revenue growth tracks 9-14% near term.
- Operating margins reach 7% by year 5.
Bear50%
Price target
$31.93
-86.5% from spot
Persistent manufacturing defects limit production scale. Prolonged cash burn requires further dilutive equity issuance. Loss of market share to Airbus accelerates, permanently capping long-term growth and profitability.
- Continued supply chain and quality issues.
- Production rates remain suppressed.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $41.6.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 70% | $34.0 | -85.7% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $44.6 | -81.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $134 | -43.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $51.9 | -78.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $41.6 | -82.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.7% | $38.8 | $41.8 | $45.3 | $49.4 | $54.4 |
| 14.7% | $34.0 | $36.3 | $38.8 | $41.8 | $45.3 |
| 15.7% | $30.2 | $32.0 | $34.0 | $36.3 | $38.8 |
| 16.7% | $27.2 | $28.6 | $30.2 | $32.0 | $34.0 |
| 17.7% | $24.7 | $25.9 | $27.2 | $28.6 | $30.2 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment4.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
4.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 48/100
Target weight
Avoid. The extreme downside risk and low confidence dictate zero allocation.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$237
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Sell existing positions. Current price represents a massive premium to intrinsic value.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E55.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE169.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-13.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All BA indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
240
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 240 of 240 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on BA
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this BA report
What is the current BA stock rating?
The Boeing Company is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full BA analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/BA/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for BA?
The latest report frames BA around $32 to $55. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the BA page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellBA · Fair value $41.6-82.5% · Confidence 48/100