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BMY trades against a final fair-value range of $68.85-$100.89, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $68.8, high $101, with mid-point at $84.5.
Stock analysis

BMY fair value $69–$101

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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मूल्य
$56.16
▲ +28.39 (+50.55%)
उचित मूल्य
$85
$69–$101
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 80/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+50.5%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$71.87
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$114.7B
P/E fwd 9.1
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $85 with high case $101.
  • Implied upside of 50.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 80/100 · Turnaround.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$85
Margin of safety
+33.6%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$56.16Price
Low $68.85
Mid $84.55
High $100.89

BMY trades against a final fair-value range of $68.85-$100.89, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Economies of Scale
    Economies of Scale
  • Cycle upside
    Rapid adoption of next-generation biologics and targeted oncology therapies driving multiple expansion.

§2 बेयर केस

Bristol-Myers Squibb is facing a massive loss of exclusivity wave. A failure in executing its new product launches would transform its 9.1x distressed multiple into a value trap, threatening the sustainability of its 70% dividend payout.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Pipeline Replacement Failure

· High

New assets like Opdualag and Camzyos completely fail to offset the multi-billion-dollar revenue crater from the Revlimid and Eliquis patent cliff.

FV impact
Fair value collapses toward $40.

Severe IRA Margin Compression

· Medium

Regulatory and pricing pressures under the Inflation Reduction Act permanently compress operating margins well below the projected 29%.

FV impact
Limits fair value upside to $60.

Dilutive Desperation M&A

· Low

Management pursues aggressively overpriced acquisitions to patch the pipeline gap, significantly destroying ROIC and elevating debt.

FV impact
Structural multiple compression to 7x.
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Quarterly sales misses for newly launched pipeline assets.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin compressing sequentially below 25%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt-to-EBITDA expanding beyond 3.5x as earnings trough.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to revert the suppressed 0.32x Capex/DA ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Management messaging hinting at dividend payout adjustments.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड

लाइन आइटम2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$46.16B$45.01B-2.5%$48.30B+7.3%$48.20B-0.2%+1.4%
सकल लाभ$36.02B$34.31B$34.33B$34.26B-1.7%
परिचालन आय$9.10B$8.20B$5.89B$13.72B+14.7%
शुद्ध आय$6.33B$8.03B+26.9%$-8.95B$7.05B+3.7%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$2.95$3.86$-4.41$3.46+5.5%
EBITDA$19.22B$19.37B$3.17B$15.23B-7.5%
R&D$9.51B$9.30B$11.16B$9.95B+1.5%
SG&A$7.81B$7.77B$8.41B$7.27B-2.4%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
8 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
2.25
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.68
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
2.01×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
13.5%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

BMY scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for BMY (BMY) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

BMY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BMY looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $56.2 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $84.5 (range $68.8–$101), which implies roughly 50.5% upside to the midpoint.

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