Flex Ltd. (FLEX)
NASDAQ: FLEX · Real-Time Price · USD
$142
+9.16 (+6.9%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: FLEX rated Sell
FLEX is rated Sell at $131.52 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $94.78, implying -27.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$94.8 / share
$65.2 – $128
Upside to FV
-27.9%
from $142
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated growth from AI infrastructure and data center demand drives multi-year margin expansion, entirely eclipsing legacy hardware cyclicality.
Biggest risk
Macro Cyclical Downturn
Macro Cyclical Downturn: Macroeconomic slowdown and cyclical downturn in consumer devices heavily offset growth in industrial and AI solutions.
Recommended action
Sell
FLEX is rated Sell at $131.52 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $94.78, implying -27.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $48.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 26.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 852M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.23 | |
| Shares out | 367.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 63.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.4x | |
| Volume | 10,651,375 | |
| Beta | 1.45 | |
| Price target | $98.4 | -30.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 26.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 852M
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.23
- P/E (trailing)
- 63.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.4x
- Market cap
- $48.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-03-31 | 2023-03-31 | 2024-03-31 | 2025-03-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $24.63B | $28.50B | $26.42B | $25.81B | +1.6% |
| Gross profit | $1.78B | $1.98B | $1.87B | $2.16B | +6.6% |
| Operating income | $890.0M | $1.02B | $873.0M | $1.19B | +10.0% |
| Net income | $936.0M | $793.0M | $1.01B | $838.0M | -3.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.94 | $1.72 | $2.28 | $2.11 | +2.8% |
| EBITDA | $1.61B | $1.54B | $1.41B | $1.78B | +3.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $830.0M | $874.0M | $922.0M | $904.0M | +2.9% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $65.2
- Fair value (mid)
- $94.8
- Fair value (high)
- $128
- Current price
- $142
- Upside to mid
- -27.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $126 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $80.21 | 25% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $65.28 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $82.93 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $84.30 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $29.32 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$98.4
-30.8%
In the news
Latest news · FLEX
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $48.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 63.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.4x
- P/S
- 1.9x
- P/B
- 10.2x
- EV / EBITDA
- 27.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 9.3%
- Operating margin
- 5.3%
- ROE
- 16.8%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- ROIC
- 15.4%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.98
- Current ratio
- 1.40
- Quick ratio
- 0.72
Trading
- Beta
- 1.45
- Volume
- 10,651,375
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -27.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$128.29
-2.5% from spot
Accelerated growth from AI infrastructure and data center demand drives multi-year margin expansion, entirely eclipsing legacy hardware cyclicality.
- Accelerated growth from AI infrastructure and data center demand
- Multi-year operating margin expansion above 6%
- Terminal growth expands beyond standard 3% mature baseline
Base60%
Price target
$94.78
-27.9% from spot
Forward earnings capture the AI step-function, but we apply a multi-stage fade over 5 years to respect legacy EMS cyclicality.
- Forward EPS achieves $6.78 (+50.68% growth)
- Operating margins hold steady at ~5.68%
- Terminal multiple capped conservatively at 20x
Bear20%
Price target
$65.15
-50.5% from spot
Macroeconomic slowdown and cyclical downturn in consumer devices heavily offset any structural growth in higher-value industrial and cloud solutions.
- Macroeconomic slowdown heavily impacts consumer devices
- Operating margins contract below 5.5%
- Terminal P/E multiple compresses significantly
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $94.8.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 35% | $126 | -11.4% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $80.2 | -43.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $65.3 | -54.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $82.9 | -41.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $84.3 | -40.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $29.3 | -79.4% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $94.8 | -27.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($94.78). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $108 | $116 | $125 | $136 | $150 |
| 10.2% | $94.8 | $101 | $108 | $116 | $125 |
| 11.2% | $84.5 | $89.3 | $94.8 | $101 | $108 |
| 12.2% | $76.2 | $80.1 | $84.5 | $89.3 | $94.8 |
| 13.2% | $69.4 | $72.6 | $76.2 | $80.1 | $84.5 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.3
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.0
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Avoid initiating at current levels. Extreme valuation divergence warrants a strict sideline stance.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$142
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate existing positions on the current AI infrastructure exuberance as the $131.52 price implies zero execution risk.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC15.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All FLEX indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
268
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 268 of 268 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on FLEX
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this FLEX report
What is the current FLEX stock rating?
Flex Ltd. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full FLEX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/FLEX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for FLEX?
The latest report frames FLEX around $65 to $128. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the FLEX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellFLEX · Fair value $94.8-27.9% · Confidence 82/100