Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT)
NASDAQ: FTNT · Real-Time Price · USD
$114
+6.10 (+5.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: FTNT rated Sell
FTNT is rated Sell at $114.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $63.99, implying -43.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 68/100.
Fair value (mid)
$64.0 / share
$48.0 – $79.5
Upside to FV
-43.9%
from $114
Confidence
68/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
The market is erroneously pricing a software-only future onto a capital-heavy hardware business model.
Biggest risk
SASE Commoditization
Downside risks are highly asymmetric given the aggressive 25x terminal multiple on a slowing top-line.
Recommended action
Sell
FTNT is rated Sell at $114.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $63.99, implying -43.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 68/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $83.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 7.1B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.58 | |
| Shares out | 732.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 44.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 33.4x | |
| Volume | 9,904,360 | |
| Beta | 0.92 | |
| Price target | $99.0 | -13.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 7.1B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.58
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 33.4x
- Market cap
- $83.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $3.34B | $4.42B | $5.30B | $5.96B | $6.80B | +19.4% |
| Gross profit | $2.56B | $3.33B | $4.07B | $4.80B | $5.47B | +20.9% |
| Operating income | $650.4M | $969.6M | $1.24B | $1.80B | $2.08B | +33.8% |
| Net income | $606.8M | $857.3M | $1.15B | $1.75B | $1.85B | +32.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $1.06 | $1.46 | $2.26 | $2.42 | +22.9% |
| EBITDA | $727.7M | $1.08B | $1.47B | $2.20B | $2.45B | +35.5% |
| R&D | $424.2M | $512.4M | $613.8M | $716.8M | $815.5M | +17.8% |
| SG&A | $1.49B | $1.86B | $2.22B | $2.28B | $2.58B | +14.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $48.0
- Fair value (mid)
- $64.0
- Fair value (high)
- $79.5
- Current price
- $114
- Upside to mid
- -43.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $83.18 | 35% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $60.77 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $49.34 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $48.26 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $30.16 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $77.41 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$99.0
-13.2%
In the news
Latest news · FTNT
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $83.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 33.4x
- P/S
- 11.8x
- P/B
- 84.6x
- PEG
- 2.75
- EV / EBITDA
- 34.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 80.3%
- Operating margin
- 31.0%
- ROE
- 132.4%
- ROA
- 13.6%
- ROIC
- 60.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.57
- Current ratio
- 1.15
- Quick ratio
- 1.03
Trading
- Beta
- 0.92
- Volume
- 9,904,360
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -43.9% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$79.53
-30.3% from spot
Absolute perfection is priced in. Prolonged multi-stage moat duration with hyper-growth defying normal infrastructure fade cycles.
- Sustained >18% growth
- Flawless ASIC execution
- 30x terminal multiple
Base55%
Price target
$63.99
-43.9% from spot
Mid-teens near-term growth fades to 5% by year five. Operating margins stabilize around 32%. Growth reflects realistic SASE adoption.
- 14.5% Year 1 revenue growth
- 32% normalized operating margin
- 25x terminal multiple
Bear20%
Price target
$47.99
-57.9% from spot
Hardware growth stalls entirely, and the terminal multiple compresses heavily to historical hardware infrastructure norms. Margin leverage reverses.
- Terminal multiple drops to 15x
- Terminal growth fades below 3%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $64.0.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 35% | $83.2 | -27.1% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $60.8 | -46.7% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $49.3 | -56.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $48.3 | -57.7% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 10% | $30.2 | -73.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $77.4 | -32.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $64.0 | -43.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $74.4 | $81.0 | $88.8 | $98.3 | $110 |
| 9.2% | $64.0 | $68.8 | $74.4 | $81.0 | $88.8 |
| 10.2% | $56.1 | $59.8 | $64.0 | $68.8 | $74.4 |
| 11.2% | $50.0 | $52.9 | $56.1 | $59.8 | $64.0 |
| 12.2% | $45.1 | $47.4 | $50.0 | $52.9 | $56.1 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
7.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 68/100
Target weight
Maximum underweight. The structural overvaluation (-43.9% upside) warrants total elimination of long exposure.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$114
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate current positions immediately. The $114 market price severely misprices the fundamental realities of a capital-intensive hardware model.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E33.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE132.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC60
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All FTNT indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
271
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 271 of 271 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on FTNT
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this FTNT report
What is the current FTNT stock rating?
Fortinet, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full FTNT analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/FTNT/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for FTNT?
The latest report frames FTNT around $48 to $80. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the FTNT page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellFTNT · Fair value $64.0-43.9% · Confidence 68/100