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Goldman Sachs remains a premier global franchise, successfully pivoting toward durable Asset & Wealth Management fees. However, current market pricing implies an uninterrupted continuation of peak-cycle earnings and permanently expanded multiples. Fair value range: low $451, high $787, with mid-point at $628.
Stock analysis

GS fair value $451–$787

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-08अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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मूल्य
$936.48
▼ -308.35 (-32.93%)
उचित मूल्य
$628
$451–$787
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 73/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-32.9%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$533.91
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$276.3B
P/E fwd 14.3
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Market exuberance prices Goldman at peak-cycle margins and elevated multiples.
  • Through-the-cycle normalized ROE of 13.04% implies a fair value of $628.13.
  • Significant downside risk exists if capital markets activity normalizes.
Fair value
$628
Margin of safety
-49.1%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$936.48Price
Low $451.19
Mid $628.13
High $786.68

Goldman Sachs remains a premier global franchise, successfully pivoting toward durable Asset & Wealth Management fees. However, current market pricing implies an uninterrupted continuation of peak-cycle earnings and permanently expanded multiples.

  • Intangible Assets
    Premier global investment banking franchise and brand equity.
  • Switching Costs
    Deep institutional relationships in Asset & Wealth Management.
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating M&A activity, lower interest rates stimulating debt underwriting, and strong equity markets boosting wealth management fees.

§2 बेयर केस

A prolonged capital markets freeze combined with severe macroeconomic contraction drives M&A and underwriting volumes to multi-year lows. Simultaneously, mark-to-market losses on private investments erode book value, forcing a reduction in share repurchases to preserve regulatory capital.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Sustained Capital Markets Freeze

· Medium

Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty stalls M&A and underwriting pipelines, structurally dragging investment banking revenues.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Capital Hike

· High

Stricter Basel III implementations force Goldman to hold significantly more capital, capping ROE below the 13% target.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Asset Management Write-downs

· Low

Commercial real estate and private equity portfolio mark-to-market losses severely impair book value and halt buybacks.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Consecutive quarters of declining advisory backlog and fee generation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Structural deterioration in FICC trading revenues.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising provisions for credit losses on legacy platform solutions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Persistent ROE compression below the cost of equity.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory rejection or curtailment of capital return plans.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड

लाइन आइटम2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$59.34B$47.37B-20.2%$46.25B-2.4%$53.51B+15.7%$58.28B+8.9%-0.4%
सकल लाभ
परिचालन आय
शुद्ध आय$21.64B$11.26B-48.0%$8.52B-24.3%$14.28B+67.6%$17.18B+20.3%-5.6%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$30.06$22.87$40.54$51.32+14.3%
EBITDA
R&D
SG&A$18.27B$15.96B$16.13B$17.35B$19.62B+1.8%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
-2.63
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

GS margins questions

  1. GS (GS)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.
FAQ

GS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GS looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $936 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $628 (range $451–$787), which implies roughly 32.9% downside to the midpoint.
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