Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)
NASDAQ: LITE · Real-Time Price · USD
$904
+11.25 (+1.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: LITE rated Reduce
LITE is rated Reduce at $861.62 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $724.80, implying -15.88% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Fair value (mid)
$725 / share
$398 – $1070
Upside to FV
-15.9%
from $904
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: AI/ML infrastructure build-out is a prolonged, multi-year supercycle. Lumentum achieves rapid operating leverage, expanding margins beyond historical norms and capturing significant market share.
Biggest risk
AI Build-out Pause
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Reduce
LITE is rated Reduce at $861.62 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $724.80, implying -15.88% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $67.0B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 2.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 439M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.26 | |
| Shares out | 71.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 171.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 47.6x | |
| Volume | 6,727,633 | |
| Beta | 1.53 | |
| Price target | $830 | -8.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 2.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 439M
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.26
- P/E (trailing)
- 171.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 47.6x
- Market cap
- $67.0B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1.71B | $1.77B | $1.36B | $1.65B | -1.3% |
| Gross profit | $788.6M | $569.0M | $251.5M | $459.9M | -16.5% |
| Operating income | $302.2M | $-87.6M | $-361.4M | $-192.2M | NaN% |
| Net income | $198.9M | $-131.6M | $-546.5M | $25.9M | -49.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.68 | $-1.93 | $-8.12 | $0.37 | -48.3% |
| EBITDA | $482.4M | $188.7M | $-81.6M | $106.8M | -39.5% |
| R&D | $220.7M | $307.8M | $302.2M | $303.9M | +11.3% |
| SG&A | $265.7M | $348.8M | $310.7M | $348.2M | +9.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $398
- Fair value (mid)
- $725
- Fair value (high)
- $1070
- Current price
- $904
- Upside to mid
- -15.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $909 | 40% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $692 | 45% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $708 | 5% |
| Discounted earnings | $255 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $29.76 | 5% |
| Owner earnings | $69.47 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$830
-8.2%
In the news
Latest news · LITE
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $67.0B
- P/E (trailing)
- 171.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 47.6x
- P/S
- 26.0x
- P/B
- 21.8x
- PEG
- 0.43
- EV / EBITDA
- 127.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.8%
- Operating margin
- 10.2%
- ROE
- 22.8%
- ROA
- 2.9%
- ROIC
- 8.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.11
- Current ratio
- 1.14
- Quick ratio
- 0.94
Trading
- Beta
- 1.53
- Volume
- 6,727,633
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -13.4% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$1,070.10
+24.2% from spot
AI/ML infrastructure build-out is a prolonged, multi-year supercycle. Lumentum achieves rapid operating leverage, expanding margins beyond historical norms and capturing significant market share.
- Sustained 80%+ near-term revenue growth.
- Operating margins expand beyond sector median.
- Terminal multiple expands above 25x.
Base55%
Price target
$724.80
-15.9% from spot
Lumentum captures expected AI/ML demand, achieving projected revenue acceleration and margin expansion before normalizing to a standard infrastructure provider growth rate.
- Year 1-2 Revenue Growth hits 85.3%.
- Operating Margin inflects to 15%.
- Terminal P/E settles at 25x.
Bear20%
Price target
$398.21
-53.8% from spot
Hyperscaler demand normalizes faster than expected, leading to severe inventory digestion, price compression, and a failure to achieve required operating leverage.
- Rapid digestion of hyperscaler demand.
- Pricing compression limits margin expansion.
- Terminal multiple compresses.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $725.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 40% | $909 | +0.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 45% | $692 | -23.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $708 | -21.7% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $255 | -71.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $29.8 | -96.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $69.5 | -92.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $725 | -15.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($692.15). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $795 | $858 | $932 | $1021 | $1128 |
| 9.8% | $692 | $740 | $795 | $858 | $932 |
| 10.8% | $613 | $650 | $692 | $740 | $795 |
| 11.8% | $550 | $580 | $613 | $650 | $692 |
| 12.8% | $499 | $524 | $550 | $580 | $613 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Underweight due to extreme peak-cycle reliance and stretched valuation.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$904
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Reduce exposure at current $861 levels, reallocate to less cyclically exposed assets.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E47.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE22.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All LITE indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
252
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 252 of 252 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on LITE
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this LITE report
What is the current LITE stock rating?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full LITE analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/LITE/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for LITE?
The latest report frames LITE around $398 to $1070. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the LITE page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceLITE · Fair value $725-15.9% · Confidence 80/100