Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
NYSE: LLY · Real-Time Price · USD
$948
-26.52 (-2.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: LLY rated Strong Buy
LLY is rated Strong Buy at $974.96 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $1,465.75, implying +50.34% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$1466 / share
$1025 – $1936
Upside to FV
+50.3%
from $948
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
The $1,465.75 fair value bridges the benchmark gap by correctly weighting forward EPS to capture explicit pipeline momentum.
Biggest risk
Severe Pricing Regulation
Severe Pricing Regulation: Medicare aggressively negotiates GLP-1 pricing, capping margins and triggering cascading price cuts across commercial channels.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
LLY is rated Strong Buy at $974.96 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $1,465.75, implying +50.34% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $869.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 72.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 25.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $28.2 | |
| Shares out | 891.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 33.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 22.2x | |
| Dividend | $6.92 (0.73%) | |
| Volume | 3,557,691 | |
| Beta | 0.48 | |
| Price target | $1228 | +29.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 72.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 25.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $28.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 33.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 22.2x
- Market cap
- $869.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $28.32B | $28.54B | $34.12B | $45.04B | $65.18B | +23.2% |
| Gross profit | $21.01B | $21.91B | $27.04B | $36.63B | $54.13B | +26.7% |
| Operating income | $6.36B | $8.28B | $10.33B | $17.04B | $29.70B | +47.0% |
| Net income | $5.58B | $6.24B | $5.24B | $10.59B | $20.64B | +38.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.14 | $6.57 | $5.80 | $11.71 | $22.95 | +39.0% |
| EBITDA | $7.90B | $8.66B | $11.85B | $18.81B | $31.69B | +41.5% |
| R&D | $7.90B | $7.19B | $9.31B | $10.99B | $13.34B | +14.0% |
| SG&A | $6.43B | $6.44B | $7.40B | $8.59B | $11.09B | +14.6% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $1025
- Fair value (mid)
- $1466
- Fair value (high)
- $1936
- Current price
- $948
- Upside to mid
- +50.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $1775 | 55% |
| Discounted earnings | $1164 | 25% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $1085 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $1072 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $742 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$1228
+29.5%
In the news
Latest news · LLY
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $869.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 33.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 22.2x
- P/S
- 11.7x
- P/B
- 27.2x
- PEG
- 1.19
- EV / EBITDA
- 24.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 82.8%
- Operating margin
- 47.3%
- ROE
- 107.5%
- ROA
- 20.7%
- ROIC
- 41.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.39
- Current ratio
- 1.50
- Quick ratio
- 0.72
Trading
- Beta
- 0.48
- Volume
- 3,557,691
- Dividend yield
- 0.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +50.3% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$1,935.83
+98.6% from spot
Supply constraints are fully resolved ahead of schedule, enabling rapid global rollout of the obesity franchise. Next-generation oral GLP-1s and pipeline successes in Alzheimer's drive total revenue well past $100B, sustaining a premium valuation multiple.
- Supply constraints resolved entirely.
- Alzheimer's pipeline yields blockbusters.
- Terminal multiple sustains at 35x.
Base50%
Price target
$1,465.75
+50.3% from spot
Eli Lilly is in an unprecedented hyper-growth phase for a mega-cap pharma company, driven by its GLP-1 franchise. With massive revenue expansion, expanding margins, and an aggressive capex build-out to alleviate supply constraints, LLY is fundamentally reshaping the metabolic disease market.
- 30x terminal multiple.
- 29.5% Year 1 revenue growth.
- 45% normalized operating margin.
Bear25%
Price target
$1,025.31
+5.2% from spot
Fierce competition from Novo Nordisk and new market entrants causes faster-than-expected price erosion. Alternatively, regulatory scrutiny, Medicare negotiation pressures, or unforeseen long-term safety signals severely compress margins and growth.
- Fierce competition accelerates price erosion.
- Terminal growth capped at 2%.
- Operating margins stall near 35%.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $1466.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $1775 | +87.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $1164 | +22.7% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $1085 | +14.4% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $1072 | +13.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $742 | -21.8% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $1466 | +50.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $1492 | $1736 | $2037 | $2037 | $2037 |
| 7.1% | $1164 | $1308 | $1492 | $1736 | $2037 |
| 8.1% | $954 | $1049 | $1164 | $1308 | $1492 |
| 9.1% | $809 | $875 | $954 | $1049 | $1164 |
| 10.1% | $701 | $751 | $809 | $875 | $954 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management8.1
Balance Sheet4.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency7.0
Weighted composite
7.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 8.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio holding given dominant structural advantage.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$948
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure if multiple expands past 45x forward EPS or if pipeline momentum severely stalls.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E22.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE107.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC41.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All LLY indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
287
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 287 of 287 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on LLY
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this LLY report
What is the current LLY stock rating?
Eli Lilly and Company is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full LLY analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/LLY/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for LLY?
The latest report frames LLY around $1025 to $1936. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the LLY page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyLLY · Fair value $1466+50.3% · Confidence 88/100